{"slug":"county-housing-vs-local-jobs","title":"When county housing measures and local jobs move apart","contractVersion":"research-v12","sourceUpdatedOn":"2026-08-02","factsHash":"f9ee04129343d7984acec7e7543fcbcc3b7eea50964374cac18ddb9c8f6704d0","definition":{"deck":"This county screen keeps three different measures separate: Zillow asking-rent change, FHFA repeat-transaction appreciation and BLS QCEW covered-employment change. It isolates places where both housing signs agree with each other but oppose the local workplace signal.","slug":"county-housing-vs-local-jobs","chart":"county_housing_jobs_divergence","title":"When county housing measures and local jobs move apart","method":["Zillow county rent change measures the current asking-rent index; FHFA annual HPI change measures repeat mortgage transactions.","QCEW annual average covered employment is workplace-based and the change recomputes from the prior annual release.","No average or composite is made from the three rates; signs determine inclusion and absolute job change determines order."],"eyebrow":"County housing + labor","question":"Which counties have Zillow rent and FHFA house-price measures moving in one direction while covered employment moves in the other?","variables":["Zillow county asking-rent change","FHFA annual county HPI change","QCEW annual covered-employment change","QCEW average weekly wage"],"limitations":["Only counties with all three direct series enter; absence from the table is not evidence that the signals agree.","FHFA HPI is an appreciation index rather than a dollar home price, and Zillow rent is not a unit-level comp.","The screen does not explain causation or forecast which signal will reverse; it identifies a due-diligence queue."],"short_title":"County housing vs local jobs","source_keys":["zillow_county","fhfa_hpi","bls_qcew_county"],"inclusion_rule":"Start with current Census counties that have direct Zillow county rent change, FHFA annual HPI change and BLS QCEW annual employment change. Publish only strict opposite-sign cases: rent and HPI both above zero with employment below zero, or rent and HPI both below zero with employment above zero. Rank by absolute employment change.","counter_signals":["Housing and labor releases cover different periods, so disagreement can reflect timing rather than a structural break.","Covered employment excludes some workers and counts jobs where establishments operate, not where workers live.","County-wide rent and HPI measures can conceal sharply different cities, property types and price bands."]},"summary":{"eligible_count":1011,"included_count":325,"largest_job_growth":0.074879,"largest_job_decline":-0.073872,"housing_up_jobs_down":308,"jobs_up_housing_down":17,"largest_job_growth_hpi":-0.0239,"largest_job_decline_hpi":0.0456,"largest_job_growth_rent":-0.0232,"largest_job_growth_slug":"caldwell-county-tx","largest_job_decline_rent":0.0231,"largest_job_decline_slug":"crawford-county-ar","largest_job_growth_county":"Caldwell County, TX","largest_job_decline_county":"Crawford County, AR"},"sources":[{"key":"bls_qcew_county","name":"BLS QCEW — county employment and wages","release":"annual county employment and wages 2021-2025; latest 2025 vs 2024","pulledAt":"2026-08-02","url":"https://www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm"},{"key":"fhfa_hpi","name":"FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation","release":"annual county HPI history 1975-2025; latest 2025","pulledAt":"2026-08-02","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/house-price-index"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"rows":[{"rowKey":"caldwell-county-tx","rank":1,"metroSlug":"caldwell-county-tx","metro":"Caldwell County, 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