{"slug":"yield-vs-climate-risk","title":"High gross yield under FEMA loss exposure","contractVersion":"research-v12","sourceUpdatedOn":"2026-07-30","factsHash":"822bc83e114775752e12e2cb9642940fa3f9bd4210cc8ae132f808e7365d7d48","definition":{"deck":"Gross yield and hazard exposure answer different underwriting questions. This study keeps them on separate axes, uses the complete direct metro intersection, and retains employment as a counter-signal.","slug":"yield-vs-climate-risk","chart":"yield_climate_quadrant","title":"High gross yield under FEMA loss exposure","method":["Gross yield is current monthly Zillow ZORI multiplied by 12 and divided by Zillow ZHVI.","Metro FEMA exposure is the population-weighted average of member-county annualized building-loss ratios from the National Risk Index.","Median lines are descriptive boundaries computed from the same complete metro universe; BLS employment change remains a separate counter-signal."],"eyebrow":"Yield + FEMA exposure","question":"Which US metros combine an above-median gross yield with an at-or-below-median FEMA annualized building-loss ratio?","variables":["Zillow Home Value Index","Zillow Observed Rent Index","Gross yield","FEMA annualized building-loss ratio","FEMA dominant hazard","Year-over-year employment change"],"limitations":["FEMA NRI is not an insurance quote, parcel flood map or prediction of a specific loss; property construction, elevation and policy terms remain unknown.","Zillow, FEMA, Census and BLS releases cover different periods, so the chart is a current joined screen rather than a synchronized causal model.","Metro averages can conceal county, city and neighborhood differences, and median boundaries change when the complete source universe changes."],"short_title":"Yield vs climate risk","source_keys":["zillow_zhvi","zillow_zori","fema_nri","bls_ces","bls_laus","acs_population","cbsa_delineation"],"inclusion_rule":"Include every RentMarker metro with direct Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, a population-weighted FEMA annualized building-loss ratio and a named BLS employment series. Compute unweighted medians across that complete intersection, then place every metro into one of four yield/loss groups. The screen group is yield at or above the median with loss exposure at or below the median; no group receives a composite score.","counter_signals":["Gross yield is before insurance, taxes, vacancy, repairs, management and financing, so FEMA exposure is not an expense adjustment to that yield.","A lower-half FEMA ratio is not a safe-market label; each metro still has a dominant hazard and property-level exposure can differ sharply.","Several high-yield, lower-loss metros have flat or declining employment, which can weaken the demand case despite clearing the two-axis screen."]},"summary":{"top_slug":"roanoke-rapids-nc","top_yield":0.1171,"top_hazard":"inland_flood","top_market":"Roanoke Rapids, NC","top_job_yoy":-0.0088,"median_yield":0.05865,"eligible_count":696,"included_count":696,"top_loss_ratio":0.001268,"lowest_loss_slug":"eagle-pass-tx","lowest_loss_ratio":0.000612,"lowest_loss_yield":0.07,"median_loss_ratio":0.0014325,"strongest_job_yoy":0.0287,"lowest_loss_market":"Eagle Pass, TX","strongest_jobs_slug":"oxford-ms","strongest_jobs_yield":0.0613,"strongest_jobs_market":"Oxford, MS","lower_yield_lower_loss":189,"higher_yield_lower_loss":159,"lower_yield_higher_loss":159,"higher_yield_higher_loss":189,"strongest_jobs_loss_ratio":0.001234},"sources":[{"key":"acs_population","name":"Census ACS 5-year — population","release":"ACS 2024 5-year","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data.html"},{"key":"bls_ces","name":"BLS CES — payroll employment","release":"CES SM current","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.bls.gov/sae/"},{"key":"bls_laus","name":"BLS LAUS — resident employment","release":"LAUS current","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.bls.gov/lau/"},{"key":"cbsa_delineation","name":"OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography","release":"OMB July 2023 delineation","pulledAt":"2026-07-30","url":"https://www.bls.gov/cew/classifications/areas/county-msa-csa-crosswalk.htm"},{"key":"fema_nri","name":"FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios","release":"NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS)","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"},{"key":"zillow_zhvi","name":"Zillow ZHVI — metro home values","release":"Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"rows":[{"rowKey":"roanoke-rapids-nc","rank":1,"metroSlug":"roanoke-rapids-nc","metro":"Roanoke Rapids, NC","state":"NC","population":64606,"classification":"higher_yield_lower_loss","metrics":{"rent":1048,"price":107355,"job_yoy":-0.0088,"job_period":"12m to 2026-05","job_source":"LAUS","top_hazard":"inland_flood","gross_yield":0.1171,"rent_period":"2026-06-30","price_period":"2026-06-30","loss_vs_median":-0.0001645,"yield_vs_median":0.05845,"climate_loss_ratio":0.001268}},{"rowKey":"macomb-il","rank":2,"metroSlug":"macomb-il","metro":"Macomb, IL","state":"IL","population":26920,"classification":"higher_yield_lower_loss","metrics":{"rent":919,"price":99171,"job_yoy":-0.0351,"job_period":"12m to 2026-05","job_source":"LAUS","top_hazard":"inland_flood","gross_yield":0.1112,"rent_period":"2026-06-30","price_period":"2026-06-30","loss_vs_median":-0.0002575,"yield_vs_median":0.05255,"climate_loss_ratio":0.001175}},{"rowKey":"danville-il","rank":3,"metroSlug":"danville-il","metro":"Danville, IL","state":"IL","population":72386,"classification":"higher_yield_lower_loss","metrics":{"rent":881,"price":98569,"job_yoy":-0.0238,"job_period":"12m to 2026-05","job_source":"LAUS","top_hazard":"inland_flood","gross_yield":0.1072,"rent_period":"2026-06-30","price_period":"2026-06-30","loss_vs_median":-0.0001585,"yield_vs_median":0.04855,"climate_loss_ratio":0.001274}},{"rowKey":"houghton-mi","rank":4,"metroSlug":"houghton-mi","metro":"Houghton, MI","state":"MI","population":39826,"classification":"higher_yield_lower_loss","metrics":{"rent":1769,"price":198417,"job_yoy":-0.0089,"job_period":"12m to 2026-05","job_source":"LAUS","top_hazard":"inland_flood","gross_yield":0.107,"rent_period":"2026-06-30","price_period":"2026-06-30","loss_vs_median":-0.0005465,"yield_vs_median":0.04835,"climate_loss_ratio":0.000886}},{"rowKey":"sault-ste-marie-mi","rank":5,"metroSlug":"sault-ste-marie-mi","metro":"Sault Ste. 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