At first glance, 01604 has two very different rent reference points. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $2,212 per month, while the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,584, a $628 or 39.6% gap. The five-digit label 01604 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The distinction in rent concepts is equally important: ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The gap therefore contrasts different evidence universes, vintages, and housing populations; it is not evidence that an available unit is mispriced.
History makes the present reading less one-dimensional. Exact same-month annualized increases were 4.08% over one year, 5.59% over three years, and 7.56% over five years. The positive current direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, but the declining sequence means the most recent pace breaks from the faster longer-run path rather than extending it at the same rate. The series has 100% coverage; annualized monthly-return variability was 2.55%, and maximum drawdown was -1.34%. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 422 for momentum, 786 for stability, and 187 for balanced history, where lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements are not a forecast or investment recommendation. The measured variability and drawdown allow more confidence in index continuity than a turbulent series would, not confidence in any individual listing.
For current-market context only, the City of Worcester context rent is $2,164, the Worcester County context rent is $2,185, and the Worcester, MA-CT metro context rent is $2,170, each close to the ZIP ZORI. These wider city, county, and metro figures are comparison scopes, not replacements for ZIP-level evidence and not descriptions of a particular submarket. Their proximity says only that the current ZIP asking-rent index sits near the supplied broader rent benchmarks; it does not reconcile the ZORI-ACS gap, because the ZIP’s ACS survey and the asking-rent index measure different populations and terms. These figures frame scale while leaving the stated geography and source universe intact.
Bedroom planning requires another evidence layer. Using the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP ZORI yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,525 for a studio, $1,783 for one bedroom, $2,212 for two bedrooms, $2,842 for three bedrooms, and $3,335 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder behind the scaling runs from $1,206 to $2,637, with a two-bedroom standard of $1,749. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so its role here is to preserve local bedroom relative differences rather than report what advertised units command. The aggregate series cannot establish whether a specific advertised unit matches any ladder rung.
Affordability metrics diverge as well. A 30% required-income screen applied arithmetically to the $2,212 monthly ZORI produces $88,480 in annual income. Against the ZIP’s ACS median household income of $73,505, that simple asking-rent-to-income calculation is 36.1%. It is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 4,218 of 9,413 renter households, or 44.8%, as spending at least the stated threshold on rent. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter households, not current applicants or a particular available unit; it also cannot be read as proof that any listed home is affordable or unaffordable. The income screen and burden share are complementary but non-interchangeable lenses because one uses current asking-index arithmetic and the other a survey.
Stock data show a renter-weighted housing base but not live inventory. The matched ACS ZCTA contains 18,337 housing units, including 1,484 vacant units, for an 8.1% vacancy rate; 338 were vacant for rent. Renters make up 55.9% of occupied homes, and the stock count includes 6,842 single-family units and 2,133 units in large multifamily structures. These are aggregate housing and vacancy measures, not a live availability feed or a statement about condition, lease readiness, price, or eligibility at a specific address. In particular, vacant-for-rent counts cannot establish that a requested bedroom size is available, nor can the area-wide vacancy rate prove negotiating room for any one unit. They provide scale and composition context alongside, rather than inside, the asking-rent index.
A property-level comparison needs the advertised address matched to the applicable delivery geography and its observation date, bedroom count, asking rent, lease term, concessions, included utilities, and stated availability recorded. The listing’s rent convention must be separated from ZORI’s blended asking-rent index and from ACS gross rent, which includes selected utilities; the HUD standard is not a quote. The listed size and layout are necessary when applying the modelled bedroom ladder, and an advertised price is distinct from a signed or occupied rent. These checks matter because historical coverage describes the index series, not the completeness of live listings. The practical unresolved question is: do the particular property’s terms actually match the source universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $2,212 per month, while the matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA reports $1,584 median gross rent. ZORI is a blended observed asking-rent index; ACS describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference is useful as a scope warning, not as a comparable rent quote or evidence about a specific vacant home.","title":"Asking index and survey rent are materially different references"},{"body":"Same-month growth remained positive, but it decelerated across the supplied horizons: 4.08% at one year, 5.59% at three years, and 7.56% at five years. Full history coverage, 2.55% annualized monthly-return variability, and a -1.34% maximum drawdown describe past index behavior. They support a steadier historical read, but neither forecast rent nor establish future listing conditions.","title":"Positive history has slowed from its longer-horizon pace"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the $2,212 ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD ladder: $1,525 studio, $1,783 one bedroom, $2,212 two bedrooms, $2,842 three bedrooms, and $3,335 four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The ladder organizes relative size assumptions; it does not measure listed apartments.","title":"Bedroom amounts are a HUD-scaled model, not unit observations"},{"body":"The arithmetic screen requires $88,480 of annual income for $2,212 monthly rent to equal 30% of income, above the $73,505 ZIP median household income. Separately, ACS finds 44.8% of renter households spending at least 30% on rent. Those metrics are not applicant tests. The aggregate 8.1% vacancy rate also cannot prove availability, condition, or negotiating room for a particular home.","title":"Income screen, burden, and vacancy answer different questions"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR use distinct populations, timing, and purposes. Treating any one as a direct substitute for another would erase material measurement differences.","The Census ZCTA is a statistical approximation matched to 01604 rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Geographic matching at an actual address can therefore differ from this report’s statistical area.","History is complete for the supplied index series but remains backward-looking. Growth rates, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks cannot establish a future rent path or the availability of an advertised unit.","Aggregate renter burden and vacancy describe surveyed households and area-wide stock, respectively. They cannot verify utilities, concessions, bedroom count, condition, lease terms, qualification, or live availability at a specific property."],"qa":[{"a":"Because the two metrics do not observe the same rent universe. ZORI tracks a typical blended asking-rent index across rental types at the ZIP-market level. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. The difference therefore cannot be read as a like-for-like unit premium.","q":"Why does the asking-rent index exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates. They scale the ZIP ZORI by the relative levels of the supplied HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, while ZORI is an asking-rent index; neither source measures the rent, layout, condition, or availability of a given apartment.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"Each reported change compares the same month at one-, three-, and five-year horizons, so the positive values document past growth only. The lower recent rate is slower than the longer-horizon rates. Full coverage and modest variability make the historical index snapshot more internally consistent, but not predictive of future rents or individual listing outcomes.","q":"What does the history indicate about the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"Vacancy reports an area-wide stock measure, and renter burden summarizes occupied renter households in ACS. Neither is a live property inventory, nor does either reveal a unit’s utilities, lease term, incentives, condition, bedroom configuration, or applicant-specific outcome. They should not be converted into claims about a particular advertised home.","q":"How should vacancy and renter burden be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1490.673617},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1512.534179},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1526.33316},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1536.738875},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1558.971427},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1583.769877},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1619.338679},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1636.140514},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1638.276041},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1627.672253},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1634.583344},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1656.098732},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1683.744376},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1696.724005},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1721.202754},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1750.389881},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1772.856806},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1777.72885},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1774.069597},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1778.102838},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1798.721655},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1829.391196},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1853.737913},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1861.158073},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1860.218576},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1875.565153},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1882.080191},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1879.016423},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1878.331667},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1874.519969},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1891.590987},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1898.15425},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1897.365786},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1911.253008},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1929.576741},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1939.744009},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1937.031848},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1940.251687},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1977.114491},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2007.766501},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2022.176232},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2035.782505},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2055.636741},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2065.53141},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2099.256621},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2091.158377},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2119.509617},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2103.633903},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2137.286345},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2154.401741},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2133.924466},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2125.479311},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2133.77259},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2148.041732},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2147.848402},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2159.561623},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2152.925983},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2168.761726},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2154.659333},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2181.831553},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2179.003675},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2182.934325},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2199.343139},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2212.151261}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2125.479311,"endRent":2212.151261,"change":0.040777602280787306,"cagr":0.040777602280787306},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1879.016423,"endRent":2212.151261,"change":0.17729213748335604,"cagr":0.0559128648675673},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1536.738875,"endRent":2212.151261,"change":0.43951018418792853,"cagr":0.07558057027711174}},"maxDrawdown":-0.013424808126350274,"annualizedVolatility":0.025471515774390715,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}