Resale pricing and resale speed create this ZIP’s clearest tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $464,895 median sold price, 12.3% below a year earlier, while 82 homes sold with a 22-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 72 homes and 2.7 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 102.1%, and 51.3% of sales were above list. Those facts describe ZIP resale transactions, not rental transactions or property economics. The price decline challenges an uncomplicated stronger-everywhere reading, whereas the speed and sale-to-list signals mean the resale evidence is not uniformly slack. It should remain in the for-sale universe rather than be used as a rental comparable.
Asking rents tell a different, slower-moving historical story. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $2,272 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a single listed unit’s rent. Exact same-month change was 2.46% over one year, 3.40% annualized over three years, and 6.31% annualized over five years. These readings remain positive, confirming rather than breaking the longer upward path, but the shorter-horizon rates mark a deceleration from the longest record. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence of a future lease increase. The history describes the index through its stated endpoint, not a guarantee for the next listing.
The stated history has 100% coverage across the recorded monthly series. That completeness lends more weight to its direction than a thin series would, while 2.79% annualized monthly-return variability means a current ZORI should retain a range of confidence rather than be treated as a precise unit quote. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.64%, a shallow historical retreat that supports the stable-growth label without making it predictive. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,050 for momentum, 1,223 for stability, and 888 for the balanced score. They are comparison aids, not rankings of a property, forecasts, or an instruction to act. Completeness does not remove the effects of mix or index construction.
The five-digit label 01852 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so that match does not convert one source universe into another. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,581; it summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current asking-rent index is 43.7% higher. This gap is a difference between an asking-rent index and surveyed in-place gross rent, not a contradiction or a measure of a particular home’s utility bill. The survey’s value is historical household context, not a fresh asking-rent comp.
Bedroom figures need an equally careful translation. The local HUD FY2026 ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR standard, not an asking-rent observation. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local ladder produces modelled monthly estimates ranging from $1,603 for a studio to $3,008 for four bedrooms; the modelled two-bedroom estimate is $2,272 against HUD’s $2,311 standard. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They preserve the local HUD bedroom proportions but cannot show an actual unit’s condition, utility treatment, concessions, or lease term. A bedroom label therefore does not erase the difference between a standard and an observed ask.
Affordability is the central rental-side caution. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the $2,272 monthly ZIP ZORI yields $90,880 of required annual income. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $80,906, so the same arithmetic places the asking-rent screen at 33.7% of that benchmark. ACS estimates that 48.8% of renter households paid at least that share of income toward rent. The burden statistic concerns surveyed renter households, and neither it nor the screen proves anything about a unit or applicant. This is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. It also cannot tell whether a household has other income, shared expenses, or selected utilities included.
Survey housing counts add context without proving current availability. The matching ZCTA has 15,636 housing units spanning single-family and large-multifamily structures, and its stated vacancy rate is 3.6%; neither aggregate fact establishes vacancy at a specific address. For wider context, the Lowell city rent figure (city scope) is $2,316, the Middlesex County rent figure (county scope) is $3,260, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH rent figure (metro scope) is $3,210. Those wider values place the ZIP asking-rent index below each context measure, but city, county, and metro data are context only, not ZIP substitutes. The counts describe the matched survey area and do not identify a current available unit or its asking terms.
A cross-source screening ratio frames the tension but does not resolve it: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price is 5.86%. It is only a screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The rent history and current income screen show rising asking rent alongside an income threshold above the ZCTA median benchmark under the stated arithmetic; the lower resale median price is a separate for-sale signal that complicates that reading. Before a property-level conclusion, verify the unit’s live asking rent, bedroom count, selected utility responsibility, concessions, lease length, physical condition, and whether its sale record and list terms are actually comparable. The index, survey, HUD standard, and resale series cannot replace those checks.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $2,272 and is a blended typical observed asking-rent index, not a unit quote. Exact same-month growth is 2.46% over one year, 3.40% annualized over three years, and 6.31% annualized over five years. The positive shorter readings retain the historical direction, while their slower pace is backward-looking evidence of deceleration rather than a forecast.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but slower"},{"body":"The 30% screen produces $90,880 required annual income from current ZIP ZORI, above the matched ZCTA’s $80,906 ACS median household income. The corresponding 33.7% screen and 48.8% ACS rent-burden share signal an affordability tension. ACS is a five-year survey of households, however, and the screen is arithmetic rather than leasing advice or a qualification standard.","title":"Current asking-rent arithmetic exceeds the income benchmark"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence shows median price down 12.3% year over year, but 22-day marketing time, 2.7 months of supply, a 102.1% average sale-to-list ratio, and 51.3% sold above list. This creates a mixed for-sale signal. It neither measures rental transactions nor establishes a property’s rent, income, expenses, or returns.","title":"Resale evidence is mixed and remains separate"},{"body":"Modelled bedroom estimates use the ZIP ZORI scaled by the local HUD ladder. They range from $1,603 for a studio to $3,008 for four bedrooms and are not measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, while ACS gross rent describes occupied renter homes with selected utilities. The ZCTA match is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Bedroom estimates are modelled, not observed"}],"risks":["A ZORI level represents blended asking-rent observations across rental types; a unit’s actual price can differ with bedroom count, condition, utility responsibility, concessions, and lease terms.","ACS rent, income, burden, vacancy, and stock figures are five-year ZCTA survey estimates rather than current ZIP listings; their aggregate nature and sampling uncertainty limit address-level interpretation.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation can show changing prices, inventory, and marketing conditions, but it does not measure rental transactions or determine the economics of any rental property.","Aggregate vacancy and rent-burden measures cannot prove availability, tenant circumstances, affordability, or utility treatment for a particular unit, building, applicant, or lease offered today."],"qa":[{"a":"01852 is used as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and is matched to a Census ZCTA for survey information. A ZCTA is a statistical area constructed for tabulation, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZIP observations and ACS ZCTA estimates can be aligned for context, but they cannot be treated as one identical measurement universe.","q":"Why are the ZIP and ZCTA labels described separately?"},{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. One reflects asks while the other summarizes in-place household rents, so their difference does not identify an error, utility charge, or current rent for a particular address.","q":"Why does Zillow asking rent differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates generated by scaling the ZIP ZORI with local HUD FMR/SAFMR proportions. HUD is an administrative standard, not a record of current asks. Verify a candidate unit’s stated bedroom count, rent, utility responsibility, concessions, condition, and lease terms before comparing it with that ladder.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual measured rents?"},{"a":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month observations describe ZIP for-sale and resale activity. The annualized ZORI-to-median-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Check an address’s sale history, list terms, and comparability instead of treating ZIP aggregate resale signals as property economics.","q":"How should the resale data and screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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