Resale signals pull in opposite directions. The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation reports a median sold price of $612,862, up 1.3% year over year, alongside 125 homes sold and a 21-day median marketing time. Inventory was 118 homes after a 49.7% annual rise, and months of supply were 2.9. The average sale-to-list ratio was 101.09%, with sales also closing above list. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The marketing and sale-to-list results describe direct ZIP resale liquidity, but the inventory increase means this evidence does not support a one-direction scarcity reading.
Current rent movement is less forceful at the most recent horizon. Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $2,742 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease-level or bedroom-specific measurement. The exact same-month change was 1.43% over one year, compared with annualized 2.82% over three years and 5.21% over five years. The latest rise remains positive but breaks from the faster longer path. The historical file has 100% coverage, with 114 observations producing 113 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized variability of those monthly returns was 2.75%, which should temper confidence placed in a single current rent snapshot. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough decline was 3.20%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,463 for momentum, 1,158 for stability, and 1,317 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. All of these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 01970 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,836 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities; current ZORI is 1.49 times that survey median. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and ranges from $1,631 for a studio to $3,060 for a four-bedroom home. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that local HUD ladder produces modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, of $1,935 for a studio, $2,089 for one bedroom, $2,742 for two bedrooms, $3,428 for three bedrooms, and $3,631 for four bedrooms.
On the cross-source affordability screen, assigning 30% of gross income to annualized current ZORI requires $109,680, above the ZCTA ACS median household income of $85,041; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 38.7%. This is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. A separate ACS burden measure shows 5,314 of 10,194 occupied renter households, or 52.1%, reported devoting at least that income share toward gross rent. The survey burden statistic belongs to occupied homes and the ACS gross-rent definition, so it cannot establish the burden, utility bill, or availability of a particular unit. The current asking-rent screen and the occupied-home survey result are material context, but they are not interchangeable.
The ACS ZCTA housing snapshot frames tenure and empty stock without diagnosing an individual property. The area reported a 5.7% vacancy rate and a 50.4% renter share among occupied units. Its housing stock encompasses both single-family and large-multifamily structures. These survey aggregates do not establish that a vacant home is habitable, competitively priced, available under a particular lease, or suitable for a specific household. Nor do reported vacancy and burden prove conditions at any one unit. They describe area composition within the ZCTA’s statistical boundaries rather than a live inventory of delivery-ZIP listings.
Scope prevents contextual values from becoming substitutes. Within the City of Salem context, the contextual rent figure is effectively the same as the ZIP ZORI; within Essex County context, the contextual rent figure is $2,632; and within the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context, it is $3,210. The city, county, and metro values are wider context only, not alternative ZIP estimates, property comparables, or evidence that their renter shares, vacancy rates, incomes, survey rents, or HUD standards apply inside this ZIP market.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals 5.37%, a cross-source screening ratio that combines an asking-rent index with a resale median. It is not a property-level measure and cannot incorporate a building’s actual rent, expenses, financing, physical condition, or transaction terms. The ratio also sits beside a meaningful tension: rents have decelerated relative to their own longer history, while resale evidence shows marketing and above-list signals alongside expanding inventory. That contrast challenges any claim that the current rent and resale readings point uniformly in one direction. It neither converts home sales into rental evidence nor resolves the income screen.
Limits are consequential here: ZORI is an index rather than a catalogue of live leases; ACS describes a five-year survey period for occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin describes direct ZIP resales rather than rentals. The packet cannot establish a specific home’s actual asking rent, verified bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, move-in date, physical condition, or relation to the modelled ladder. A property-level reading would turn on those item-specific facts and on whether the quoted unit actually matches the source definitions. Does the available unit’s documented rent and terms align with its modelled bedroom estimate, rather than merely with an area-wide index?
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation recorded a $612,862 median sale price, 125 sold homes, a 21-day median marketing time, and 2.9 months of supply. Its 101.09% average sale-to-list ratio places the average transaction above list. However, inventory was 49.7% higher year over year. This is a for-sale signal set, so it cannot substantiate an asking-rent conclusion.","title":"Resale liquidity coexists with rising inventory"},{"body":"The current ZIP ZORI gained 1.43% over one year, versus annualized growth of 2.82% over three years and 5.21% over five years. The history has full coverage across 114 observations. A 2.75% annualized monthly-return variability reading and 3.20% maximum drawdown provide backward-looking context, not a prediction of future asking rents.","title":"Recent asking-rent growth trails the longer record"},{"body":"Zillow’s $2,742 ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, whereas the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,836 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD bedroom standards are administrative rather than asking rents. Scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled, not measured, estimates from $1,935 for a studio to $3,631 for four bedrooms.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, while source definitions differ"},{"body":"The $109,680 income implied by assigning 30% of gross income to current ZORI exceeds the ZCTA’s $85,041 median household income; this calculation is not an applicant rule. ACS reports 52.1% of renter households paid at least that share toward gross rent. The ZCTA’s 5.7% vacancy rate and 50.4% renter share are survey-area measures, not attributes of a particular available unit.","title":"The income screen and survey burden tell separate stories"}],"risks":["Zillow, ACS, HUD, and Redfin answer different questions; treating their values as interchangeable unit rents, lease outcomes, or property economics would materially overstate the precision available in this packet.","Recent ZORI growth is below the longer annualized history, and historical return variability plus drawdown mean that one index snapshot is not a fixed unit-level benchmark or forecast.","Rising Redfin inventory occurs beside resale marketing and above-list signals, but these direct ZIP sales do not reveal rental availability, rent concessions, or the economics of a particular home.","ZCTA vacancy and rent-burden results are area-level survey estimates; they cannot prove that a specific unit is habitable, currently vacant, affordable to a household, or offered on comparable terms."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. These measures differ in population, timing, and construction. The matched ZCTA is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP, so a shared label does not create a lease-level comparison.","q":"Why is the current asking-rent index higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. The method distributes one blended ZIP asking-rent index across bedroom sizes; it does not observe advertised or signed rents for studios, one-bedroom units, or larger units.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed ZIP bedroom rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized current ZORI by 30% of gross income, producing an arithmetic comparison with the ZCTA median household income. It is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or proof of affordability. The ACS burden statistic is separate: it surveys occupied renter households’ reported gross-rent burden across a five-year period.","q":"How should the 30% required-income screen be interpreted?"},{"a":"Actual advertised rent, verified bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, move-in date, physical condition, and current availability are absent. Redfin sales do not furnish rental comparables. A unit-level interpretation rests on those documented facts and on whether the quoted unit resembles the blended ZORI universe or merely a modelled bedroom estimate.","q":"What property-level facts remain unavailable from this packet?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1668.081486},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1699.353957},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1759.235839},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1783.777581},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1781.812548},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1771.132006},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1754.395621},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1750.864706},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1788.757075},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1823.289014},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1859.972982},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1858.727658},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1867.606937},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1861.098616},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1848.375375},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1867.152608},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1865.895911},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1866.595682},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1866.256569},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1875.010742},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1888.045235},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1890.308114},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1907.407988},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1897.032718},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1899.366298},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1913.33156},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1920.068335},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1909.661852},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1934.56283},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1952.368604},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1976.974625},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1990.479202},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1981.325749},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1985.355192},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1980.775574},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2023.770023},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2045.390079},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2060.805955},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2035.077277},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2020.419378},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2022.853436},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1994.770775},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2019.476984},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2036.021628},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2054.097413},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2042.97443},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2034.615232},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2028.689372},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2032.346939},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2050.418931},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2073.058188},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2096.1807},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2102.673941},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2127.431208},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2136.318194},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2168.89494},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2194.907124},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2237.335256},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2268.623407},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2298.970131},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2299.559083},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2305.674074},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2302.267624},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2315.26401},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2338.008974},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2371.874759},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2406.610818},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2396.844066},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2405.858153},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2400.984549},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2430.233909},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2429.341758},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2447.059203},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2461.447615},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2481.050914},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2499.338022},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2508.638055},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2522.772195},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2524.300245},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2557.818524},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2553.465395},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2569.332382},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2549.777559},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2575.669239},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2598.199492},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2613.194737},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2640.263702},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2642.241553},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2645.537186},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2639.840453},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2647.786779},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2638.456911},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2641.558477},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2641.012129},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2658.273802},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2679.784676},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2692.783628},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2721.78513},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2699.057535},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2699.29338},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2697.282411},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2703.778506},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2708.976488},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2719.183823},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2734.034521},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2743.042688},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2747.979022},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2732.78057},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2722.517911},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2704.296895},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2718.053702},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2726.216669},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2736.334268},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2742.466109}],"historySummary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