The immediate tension in 02115 is between the June 2026 Zillow ZORI of $3,325 and the income screen implied by that index. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a particular available home. It stood 3.77% higher than a year earlier. Annualizing the index and applying the 30% screen produces $133,000 of required household income, versus the matched ZCTA's ACS median household income of $54,991. That creates a 72.6% asking-rent-to-income relationship. This calculation is arithmetic only: it is neither affordability advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it cannot establish what any household or any individual unit can pay.
That comparison requires separate evidence universes. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $2,039. That measure covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike an observed asking-rent index. The current index is 63.1% above the ACS median. The ACS burden tabulation puts 59.0% of renter households in its higher-burden group. It indicates survey-reported conditions, not the expense of a particular current unit, and the ACS estimates carry sampling uncertainty.
Bedroom detail should not be mistaken for a bedroom-rent survey. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The applicable local HUD ladder ranges from $1,631 for a studio to $3,060 for four bedrooms. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that ladder produces modelled estimates of $2,347 for a studio, $2,534 for one bedroom, $3,325 for two, $4,157 for three, and $4,403 for four. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The current index is 43.9% above the two-bedroom HUD standard, a cross-universe comparison rather than evidence of an observed two-bedroom asking rent.
ACS stock measures frame the market's renter orientation without establishing live availability. The ZCTA contains 11,514 housing units and has a 14.3% vacancy rate. Of occupied units, 85.4% are renter occupied, and the structure inventory includes 5,942 large-multifamily units. ACS also classifies 724 vacant units as for rent. These counts and categories describe a survey stock at its measurement period rather than a real-time listing feed; they cannot prove that a vacancy represents an available, suitably priced, or comparable home. Nor does the high renter share establish the lease terms, cost, or burden of any specific unit.
Wider geographies point in several directions but remain context only. In the City of Boston context, rent is $3,469; in the Suffolk County context, it is $3,423; and in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context, it is $3,210. The ZIP's asking-rent index is lower than the city and county context figures but higher than the metro context figure. The matched ZCTA's renter share, vacancy rate, and survey burden share each exceed the City of Boston and Suffolk County context readings. Those city, county, and metro measures neither replace ZIP evidence nor make an inference about a building, household, or current listing.
History gives the current reading a longer but still limited frame. For the mixed Zillow ZIP series, exact same-month annualized ZORI changes are 3.77% over one year, 3.65% over three years, and 6.08% over five years. Thus the newest direction confirms the positive longer path, although the recent pace remains below the five-year rate. The series reports 100% coverage. On an annualized basis, monthly-return variability is 3.06%, so an individual rent snapshot should not be treated as immovable. Separately, the recorded maximum peak-to-trough drawdown reached 10.53%, showing a meaningful historical reversal. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 706 for momentum, 1,729 for stability, and 906 for balanced performance, with lower ranks higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies a separate for-sale read, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $989,276, up 8.12% year over year. The observation records 35 homes sold, a median 20 days on market, inventory of 81 homes, and 7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list percentage is 98.73%, while 38.27% of sold homes went above list. The faster sale-price increase confirms that resale prices and the asking-rent history both moved upward, but the supply and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple reading of uniformly tight conditions; rising resale prices also do not resolve the income screen. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is a 4.03% cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property economics or an expected outcome.
Limits remain material when translating any ZIP metric to a property. ZORI is a typical blended asking-rent index; ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a ZIP resale series. None identifies a subject apartment or property. A property-level review requires verification of the actual advertised monthly rent, bedroom designation, utility inclusions, lease duration, concessions, and availability date. A resale file separately needs the actual property's sale or list status, pricing record, and marketing history rather than an assumption from ZIP aggregates. These checks keep the rent, survey, standard, and resale universes distinct. After those checks, which source differences still materially change the reading of the specific property?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 reading, Zillow's ZIP-level typical asking-rent index was $3,325, while annualizing it under the 30% arithmetic screen yields $133,000 of household income. The matched ACS ZCTA reports a $54,991 median household income. This flags a broad income-to-current-asking-rent tension but says nothing conclusive about any applicant, subsidy, household budget, or specific listing.","title":"Current rent-income gap"},{"body":"HUD FY2026 values are administrative bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR standards rather than market asking rents. Using their local proportional ladder to scale ZIP ZORI produces modelled estimates from $2,347 for a studio to $4,403 for four bedrooms. The sequence serves as a consistent sizing tool across bedrooms; it does not observe rent on a studio, one-bedroom, or larger available unit.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow history is positive across one, three, and five years, but the shorter horizons trail the five-year pace. Full series coverage does not remove market movement: annualized monthly-return variability and a 10.53% maximum drawdown show why a current index reading has limits as a point-in-time descriptor. These are recorded outcomes, not projections.","title":"Growth history has snapshot limits"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month resale observation shows an 8.12% median sold-price increase, yet 7 months of supply and a 98.73% average sale-to-list relationship temper any simple reading of sale-price strength. Its 4.03% annualized-rent-to-price figure is a cross-source screening ratio, not an appraisal of a property or a measure of rental transaction economics.","title":"Resale read is mixed"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, so it can diverge from the advertised price, bedroom mix, utilities, concessions, timing, and lease terms of a specific available unit.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical match rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year occupied-renter survey estimates, including gross rent and burden, carry sampling error and vintage differences.","Positive historical same-month growth does not predict future rents. The recorded variability and peak-to-trough drawdown show that a current index observation can shift despite complete reported coverage of the series.","Redfin's rolling resale measures refer to sales, listings, and marketing in the ZIP, not rental contracts or a subject property. The annualized rent-to-price screen omits property-specific economics and transaction details."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while the ACS figure is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their vintages, populations, and construction differ. The ZCTA match is statistical rather than a USPS ZIP equivalence, adding another geographic limitation.","q":"Why does the ACS rent figure differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD values are administrative standards, and ZORI does not isolate listed homes by bedroom. The figures preserve a local proportional pattern but are not observed asking-rent measurements for any bedroom type.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"No. The series reports what Zillow ZORI did across fixed same-month intervals through its endpoint. Positive change rates, variability, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks describe past observations only. They neither predict subsequent rent changes nor establish an investment recommendation, and historical variation reduces the certainty of interpreting one current snapshot as permanent.","q":"Does the Zillow rent history predict future rent changes?"},{"a":"Redfin reports a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation: sale price, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can be compared with ZORI only at a high level. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is a cross-source screen, not a measure of a subject property's economics, rental transactions, or a future outcome.","q":"What can the Redfin resale metrics establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":2216.979655},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":2213.196289},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":2249.519311},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":2258.151229},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":2264.5389},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":2279.770249},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":2280.486634},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":2279.158757},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":2267.753465},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":2297.936893},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":2334.1654},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":2336.43985},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":2307.409154},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":2297.969487},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":2291.898307},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":2303.597671},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2300.422078},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2313.287384},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2320.786271},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2329.642964},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2320.076096},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2308.528552},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2282.483121},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2340.312992},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2381.293957},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2424.743745},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2417.511086},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2413.973413},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2422.281852},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2426.291552},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2431.418558},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2441.715107},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2459.29197},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2471.198794},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2478.443053},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2453.307205},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2448.036691},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2428.437328},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2438.987875},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2447.82842},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2465.538873},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2467.011976},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2477.656296},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2475.146773},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2475.582577},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2484.50117},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2495.986861},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2511.306551},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2521.139394},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2541.82338},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2553.767084},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2561.369988},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2558.488656},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2565.968673},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2566.561483},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2573.712944},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2578.199434},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2577.126492},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2577.959051},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2573.039833},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2565.978136},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2555.278923},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2565.718583},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2563.086373},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2544.575924},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2521.905572},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2484.622977},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2424.863062},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2348.769419},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2306.69595},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2310.635033},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2342.84413},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2368.308564},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2379.021927},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2398.421689},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2412.433197},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2445.372257},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2475.277505},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2501.896023},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2545.135602},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2630.752516},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2689.202546},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2700.574407},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2646.887157},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2646.339075},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2659.498831},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2683.882144},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2705.825802},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2726.485742},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2744.839759},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2780.986037},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2818.402971},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2849.988433},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2844.018602},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2840.010888},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2870.845862},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2903.111448},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2930.378576},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2936.007653},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2952.582224},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2967.888571},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2985.734237},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":3002.579206},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":3039.628377},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":3066.290595},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3097.005377},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3092.327347},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3077.319698},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3056.122288},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3077.900864},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3098.628958},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3109.142404},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3095.869463},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3108.646564},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3130.10312},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3110.349974},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3084.561673},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3067.308243},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3137.670222},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3173.276158},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3207.163216},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3176.86292},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3182.287206},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3193.817419},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3204.23617},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3204.404621},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3196.128703},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3209.195},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3232.741545},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3257.12524},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3230.476836},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3231.391455},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":3235.136099},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3267.290744},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":3277.460365},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":3286.001539},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":3307.933265},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":3325.118838}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3204.404621,"endRent":3325.118838,"change":0.03767134031979036,"cagr":0.03767134031979036},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2985.734237,"endRent":3325.118838,"change":0.1136687240258214,"cagr":0.036538269460477224},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2475.277505,"endRent":3325.118838,"change":0.34333174009109735,"cagr":0.060807680008928555}},"maxDrawdown":-0.10530740190985566,"annualizedVolatility":0.030620913721374127,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}