Rent and resale signals diverge in 02116. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The current Zillow ZORI is $3,555 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Its exact same-month annualized change was 4.0% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 6.1% over five years. Asking rents therefore remain on a positive backward-looking path, but the recent pace is below the longest-horizon pace. That recent direction confirms continued growth rather than a reversal, while breaking from the faster path captured in the five-year measurement.
The historical series argues for care in treating a current rent reading as a fixed point. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.1% indicates that month-to-month changes in the ZIP asking-rent index have generally been limited relative to its long-run gain, which provides some support for using the current reading as a broad market reference. Separately, the observed maximum drawdown was 11.6%, showing that the historical index has still experienced meaningful peak-to-trough declines. Coverage is complete at 138 monthly observations and 100% of the available history. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 670 for momentum, 1,845 for stability, and 962 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking classifications, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source construction explains why rent figures should not be interchanged. Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index, whereas the matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey reports a $2,375 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS result is therefore a survey measure of existing renter households rather than a current asking-rent quote. For wider context only, the Boston city context asking-rent figure is $3,469, the Suffolk County context figure is $3,423, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context figure is $3,210. Those city, county, and metro values provide broader benchmarks, not substitutes for the direct ZIP index or evidence about a particular available unit.
The bedroom view is a model, not a measurement of observed bedroom-specific rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,509 for a studio, $2,709 for one bedroom, $3,555 for two bedrooms, $4,444 for three bedrooms, and $4,707 for four bedrooms. The local two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,311. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and it is used here only to establish the relative bedroom ladder. The resulting estimates should not be presented as measured rents for units of those sizes, because unit condition, lease terms, utility treatment, and listing availability are not contained in the model.
The arithmetic affordability screen is tighter than the area-level income comparison may first suggest. Paying the current $3,555 monthly ZORI at a 30% gross-income share requires $142,200 in annual income, compared with a Census ZCTA median household income of $126,496. That places the ZIP-level asking-rent-to-income screen at 33.7%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Among ACS renter households, 46.4% report gross rent burdens at or above 30% of income. For context, the comparable burden share is 51.2% in Boston city context and 52.0% in Suffolk County context. Neither burden statistic demonstrates the cost position of a particular household or unit, but it frames the difference between a current asking-rent index and occupied-household survey outcomes.
The ACS ZCTA housing snapshot shows a renter-oriented stock with a substantial vacancy component that needs unpacking rather than assumed to be immediately rentable supply. Of 14,152 housing units, 11,513 are occupied and 2,639 are vacant, producing an 18.6% vacancy rate. The vacancy categories include 1,206 seasonal units, so the aggregate vacancy figure does not establish current long-term rental availability. Larger multifamily buildings account for 5,369 units, making that structure type material to the local housing inventory. The area has more renter-occupied than owner-occupied homes, consistent with the relevance of renter-household indicators, but ACS is a five-year survey and cannot verify whether any current listing is vacant, legally rentable, or offered at the ZORI level.
Direct ZIP resale evidence provides a different, for-sale-market tension. In Redfin's rolling three-month 02116 resale observation, median sold price was $1,427,177, down 8.6% year over year. The observation recorded 90 homes sold with a median 22 days on market, inventory of 163 homes, and 5.5 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 99.6%, while 31.9% of sales closed above list price. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The declining median sale price challenges the otherwise positive asking-rent history, while relatively short marketing time and near-list execution complicate any simple weak-resale conclusion. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 2.99% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The packet supports a market-level comparison, not a conclusion about a specific property. Zillow does not identify a unit's actual lease rent, ACS cannot establish current availability or an individual tenant's burden, HUD does not quote asking rent, and Redfin resale observations do not measure rental performance. Property-level review would need to confirm the address is within the relevant ZIP and ZCTA framework, the actual bedroom count and unit type, current advertised rent and lease term, included utilities and mandatory fees, vacancy and move-in timing, and whether the property resembles the resale homes summarized by Redfin. The central unresolved question is whether a specific unit's terms align with the modelled bedroom ladder and current asking-rent index rather than merely with broad survey, administrative, or resale indicators.
","findings":[{"body":"The direct ZIP Zillow asking-rent index is $3,555 monthly. Same-month annualized growth is positive across the reported one-, three-, and five-year horizons, but the shortest-horizon pace remains below the five-year pace. Historical monthly variability appears relatively restrained, yet the observed maximum drawdown shows that a current index level should be treated as a market snapshot rather than an immutable rent reference.","title":"Asking rents remain positive, but the long-run pace has cooled"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates are generated by scaling the ZIP Zillow index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled estimates, not measured rents for available homes. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard and is not asking rent. Differences in unit quality, amenities, utilities, lease duration, and availability can create material departures from the modelled ladder.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from HUD relative standards"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation for the current ZIP asking-rent index exceeds the matched ZCTA median household income. ACS also reports that a substantial share of renter households have gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. These are area-level arithmetic and survey measures, respectively. They do not establish a particular applicant's qualification, a tenant's financial position, or the affordability of a particular unit.","title":"Affordability indicators show pressure without identifying individual outcomes"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price while the Zillow asking-rent index remains above its same-month historical levels. At the same time, the resale data show active turnover, moderate supply, near-list execution, and some above-list sales. That mixed for-sale evidence challenges a simple reading of the rent trend and must remain separate from rental-market evidence.","title":"Resale pricing declined even as asking-rent history stayed positive"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the current advertised rent, lease structure, utility package, size, or condition of any individual dwelling.","The ACS ZCTA is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities in gross rent, and is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP boundary.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and the derived bedroom ladder are administrative and modelled tools, not evidence that a currently available studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit is offered at the estimate.","Redfin resale metrics summarize for-sale transactions over a rolling period; changing sale prices, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes do not establish rental cash flow, tenant demand, or unit-level operating results."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A current asking index can therefore differ materially from a survey median without either source being an error.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the direct ZIP Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent. The estimates cannot identify the actual rent of a listing because unit features, utilities, timing, and lease terms are unknown.","q":"Are the bedroom rent amounts observed rents for 02116 listings?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides annualized ZIP asking rent by 30% of gross income to produce an arithmetic required-income benchmark. It is not financial advice, an applicant qualification standard, or evidence of an individual household's circumstances. ACS burden data also describe surveyed renter households collectively, not any particular tenant or home.","q":"Does the 30% income screen determine whether someone can rent a unit?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP Zillow ZORI divided by Redfin's median ZIP sold price, so it combines two separate source universes for broad screening only. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or estimate of operating performance. Expenses, vacancy, taxes, financing, unit quality, and actual lease rent are not included.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":2389.001425},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":2365.604834},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":2361.967148},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":2393.233914},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":2425.368768},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":2441.421648},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":2426.0102},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":2402.168164},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":2432.458546},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":2449.109298},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":2467.207103},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":2472.412333},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":2479.475645},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":2463.407514},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":2455.412445},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":2454.222587},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2474.561492},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2486.862605},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2494.647569},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2505.63833},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2489.761028},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2480.645774},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2486.262604},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2489.267065},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2530.786264},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2556.896305},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2580.555331},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2572.160674},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2539.442359},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2533.345021},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2547.609909},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2576.226533},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2573.839366},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2566.7991},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2550.024472},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2559.349869},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2553.836133},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2564.560676},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2562.037879},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2561.553485},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2592.784583},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2612.178368},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2624.638876},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2632.506903},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2610.588667},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2650.773507},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2645.454806},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2679.230476},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2650.508128},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2673.357467},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2681.720186},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2701.747872},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2704.198851},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2705.648852},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2704.355634},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2699.164279},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2735.672431},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2725.126278},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2751.617017},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2735.494589},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2766.51581},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2753.175298},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2766.399817},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2779.526402},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2762.300419},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2720.999809},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2692.594702},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2652.33646},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2618.113903},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2539.679485},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2490.51188},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2456.442318},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2501.003837},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2552.234326},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2582.95354},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2591.699166},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2612.172353},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2638.611986},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2673.582699},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2694.231027},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2705.485724},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2764.025831},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2839.057367},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2897.045344},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2904.597906},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2870.211317},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2893.345501},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2906.433939},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2947.535102},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2975.96298},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2994.833148},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":3055.95609},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":3104.800849},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":3165.676148},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":3169.336714},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":3154.81863},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":3145.018641},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":3137.43054},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":3146.526111},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":3160.062919},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":3184.145163},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":3196.922954},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":3211.313781},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":3210.917947},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":3194.507586},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3202.817731},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3191.47734},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3253.479126},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3250.266413},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3319.352816},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3307.86591},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3315.743013},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3295.515205},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3317.713928},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3334.459496},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3308.848068},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3316.458104},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3327.251626},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3330.685332},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3327.426357},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3340.608563},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3390.562333},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3393.191971},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3398.691149},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3397.115499},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3419.009674},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3424.110101},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3459.704713},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3480.284918},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3481.641168},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3509.825974},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3510.23057},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":3531.293775},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3487.429638},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":3515.258457},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":3530.30911},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":3561.412969},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":3555.383885}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3419.009674,"endRent":3555.383885,"change":0.039887050345912556,"cagr":0.039887050345912556},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3196.922954,"endRent":3555.383885,"change":0.11212685953269297,"cagr":0.03605968917530844},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2638.611986,"endRent":3555.383885,"change":0.3474447565099481,"cagr":0.061456482604270724}},"maxDrawdown":-0.11623709843789432,"annualizedVolatility":0.03145495030016393,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}