In June 2026, the $3,842 ZIP ZORI for 02118 was 4.45% above the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease signed by a specific household or a bedroom-specific comp. For wider context only, Boston city context rent was $3,469.07, Suffolk County context rent was $3,423, and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context rent was $3,210. The ZIP index exceeds each wider-area contextual measure, an observation rather than a claim about any given listing.
Rent history frames the present reading less simply than the current increase alone. Through the stated endpoint, direct Zillow ZIP ZORI recorded exact same-month annualized changes of 4.45% over one year, 4.08% over three years, and 6.07% over five years. Thus the recent direction broadly confirms the medium-term upward path but breaks from the longer path by running below its stronger five-year pace. Coverage is 100%, supporting continuity of the historical record. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.27% puts this ZIP in the supplied high-variability category, so a single current observation merits tempered confidence. Separately, the historical peak-to-trough maximum drawdown reached a 15.02% decline, showing that the path contained a meaningful prior retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 521 for momentum, 2,006 for stability, and 902 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view should not be mistaken for a set of measured rents. It proportionally scales the ZIP ZORI by the local FY2026 HUD ladder, producing modelled monthly estimates of $2,712 for a studio, $2,928 for one bedroom, $3,842 for two bedrooms, $4,803 for three bedrooms, and $5,087 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The underlying local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,311. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it supplies the scaling shape but does not turn these outputs into market observations. Unit mix, utility treatment, lease terms, and listing availability remain outside this modelled ladder.
The difference between the ACS and asking-rent universes is consequential. The ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,968, and this is a survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The current ZORI is 1.95 times that median, but the comparison bridges an asking-rent index and a differently timed occupied-home survey, so it is not a contradiction or a lease-level premium. Applying the 30% screen mechanically to the current index gives required annual income of $153,680. The ZCTA median household income is $98,224, and the annualized asking index equals 46.94% of that median. ACS also reports that 51.66% of renter households met or exceeded the burden threshold. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and burden data cannot prove the affordability of a particular unit.
Survey stock and vacancy add scale without identifying an available home. In the matched ZCTA, ACS counts 15,828 housing units and 1,331 vacant units, an 8.41% vacancy rate. Renter occupancy is 67.49% of occupied homes, while the stock includes 6,092 large-multifamily units. Of the vacant stock, 544 units are classified for rent. Those figures describe a five-year survey geography and classification, not a live inventory feed: they do not establish that a vacancy is marketed now, matches the modelled bedroom type, or is usable by a particular renter. They nonetheless show that both renter occupancy and multifamily stock are central to the ZCTA's reported housing composition.
Redfin supplies a different, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, and every measure in this paragraph concerns the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Median sold price was $1,179,733, up 10.26% year over year. The ZIP recorded 79 homes sold with median marketing time of 25 days. Reported inventory was 174 homes, a 27.13% annual increase, alongside 6.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.51%, while 23.4% of sales closed above list. Together these are resale pricing, activity, inventory, marketing-time, and sale-to-list signals; they are not rental comps, evidence of a rental lease, or property-level operating economics.
Cross-source comparison creates the clearest tension. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price produces a 3.91% screening ratio. It is only a cross-source screen, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or a measure of property cash flow. The resale price increase outpaced the asking-rent increase, which challenges any simple reading that current rent momentum alone describes the local housing market. Yet the inventory increase and months-of-supply reading counter that price change with more for-sale supply, while completed sales and the sale-to-list signal show observed resale activity. None of those for-sale facts confirms rental demand, resolves the ACS affordability screen, or alters the history's high-variability caution.
Limits remain material when taking this ZIP-level evidence to a property decision. Reconcile a specific address with its advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, utility inclusions, concessions, availability date, and current listing status before comparing it with ZORI or the modelled ladder. For a resale record, verify property type, condition, transaction date, list history, and whether the observation belongs to the same ZIP geography before using the Redfin figures as context. Check whether a household's actual income and utility obligations match the arithmetic screen rather than substituting area medians or burden shares. These steps distinguish the index, survey, administrative standard, and resale series instead of treating them as interchangeable. What property-level facts would change the comparison most?
","findings":[{"body":"At $3,842 in June 2026, the ZIP asking-rent index exceeded the Boston city context of $3,469.07, the Suffolk County context of $3,423, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context of $3,210. These are wider-area context measures only. The comparison establishes relative level, not a lease comparison or an explanation for the gap.","title":"Asking rent exceeds wider context"},{"body":"The same-month rent path was positive at each supplied horizon, but the five-year annualized pace exceeded the shorter-horizon readings. Full coverage supports continuous observation, while the high-variability designation and the historical drawdown limit confidence in treating the current value as a stable endpoint. The momentum rank was stronger than the stability rank among history-eligible ZIPs, a discovery comparison rather than a forecast.","title":"History is positive but not uniformly stable"},{"body":"ACS gross rent measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rent across rental types. The resulting gap is decision-relevant but not directly comparable at the lease level. The required-income calculation and renter-burden share are area screens, not proof that a particular available apartment will be affordable to a particular household.","title":"Survey affordability is not an asking-rent comp"},{"body":"Redfin shows direct ZIP resale activity, including sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Rising resale prices alongside higher inventory create a mixed for-sale signal that should remain distinct from rental evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio and cannot describe operating performance for a property.","title":"Resale evidence is active but separate"}],"risks":["Source definitions do not align: Zillow tracks typical asking rent, ACS surveys occupied renter homes with selected utilities, HUD sets an administrative standard, and Redfin records resale transactions.","High historical variability and a prior maximum drawdown mean that even complete monthly coverage does not make the current ZORI snapshot a forecast or a stable lease-level estimate.","ACS vacancy, renter share, income, and burden are ZCTA survey measures with sampling uncertainty; classified vacant-for-rent units cannot establish current availability, price, condition, or eligibility for a specific property.","Redfin inventory and sale signals describe direct ZIP resale activity only. The annualized rent-to-price screen excludes property matching and operating costs, so it cannot establish cash flow or investment performance."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types at the ZIP level. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities. Different timing, populations, utility treatment, and index construction mean the gap is descriptive, not proof that either source is wrong or that a particular lease commands the index.","q":"Why does the current asking-rent index differ so sharply from ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than observed asking rent. Actual listings can differ by unit mix, utility inclusion, lease terms, and availability.","q":"Are the studio-through-four-bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio joining an asking-rent index to a rolling resale median. It does not contain operating expenses, financing, taxes, repair needs, or property-match information. Therefore it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What can the annualized ZORI-to-sale-price ratio say?"},{"a":"Complete monthly coverage improves continuity in the historical series, but the supplied high-variability classification and prior drawdown mean a single current index point deserves measured confidence. Redfin metrics add direct resale information on sales, time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes, yet they neither measure rental transactions nor resolve ACS burden or household-level affordability.","q":"How should historical variability and resale metrics affect confidence in the current reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year 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