At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level Observed Rent Index for 02125 was $3,381, 1.5% below its same-month level a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a particular available unit. The five-digit 02125 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The immediate signal is cooling, but its decision value depends on separating asking-rent evidence from household survey, HUD standard, and resale-market evidence.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation creates the sharpest cross-market tension. Median sold price was $644,854, down 8.7% year over year, a larger decline than the asking-rent index’s annual easing. Yet resale activity was not absent: 62 homes sold with a median 23 days on market. Inventory stood at 73 homes and 3.6 months of supply, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 99.94%; sales above list were not the majority. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The resale decline therefore challenges a simple reading of durable rent strength, while the transaction pace shows that the ZIP’s resale evidence is not merely an inactive-market reading.
Longer Zillow history puts the recent decline in perspective without turning it into a forecast. The series has 115 monthly observations, 114 consecutive month-to-month returns, and complete coverage. Same-month change was positive at 0.4% annualized over three years and 4.0% annualized over five years, so the latest one-year retreat breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path. Monthly ZORI changes translate into 3.4% annualized variability, meaning a single current rent snapshot should not be treated as a fixed market level. Separately, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 6.9%, demonstrating that prior rent paths included meaningful declines. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,602 for momentum, 2,147 for stability, and 2,730 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger, but none predicts future rents.
The ACS and HUD benchmarks answer different questions from Zillow. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $1,949 with a $127 margin of error; this is a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The current Zillow asking-rent index is 73.5% higher, a difference that should not be mistaken for a one-to-one change in lease rents because the populations, timing, utility treatment, and rent concepts differ. HUD’s local two-bedroom standard was $2,311. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation, so it is useful for scaling and program context rather than identifying a market asking price.
Using the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale the ZIP Zillow index produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,386 for a studio, $2,576 for one bedroom, $3,381 for two bedrooms, $4,227 for three bedrooms, and $4,477 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD size relationships while anchoring the two-bedroom point to current ZIP ZORI. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they do not show which sizes are currently available, what utilities are included, or the condition and location of any individual home. A particular listing can differ substantially because the index and the HUD ladder each aggregate information rather than appraise a unit.
Household-income and rent-burden evidence intensify the affordability tension. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $82,953 with a $12,485 margin of error. Applying the 30% required-income screen to the current monthly Zillow index produces $135,240 of annual income, and the index equals 48.9% of the reported median household income when annualized. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 47.2% of ACS occupied renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. The burden statistic is a survey-wide household measure; it cannot establish the cost burden, lease terms, or affordability of a particular household or unit.
The survey’s housing-stock evidence shows a renter-majority area without proving current listing availability. The ZCTA contained 15,307 housing units, including 1,061 vacant units, for a 6.9% vacancy rate; 459 vacant units were classified as for rent. Renter households accounted for 65.1% of occupied homes, while the stock included 2,375 single-family units and 2,801 units in large multifamily structures. Vacancy categories are not a count of immediately rentable homes and do not verify the condition, pricing, or accessibility of a specific unit. For wider Zillow asking-rent context, Boston city was $3,469, Suffolk County was $3,423, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro was $3,210; each is a broader scope, not a ZIP-level substitute.
Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing by the Redfin median sold price gives a 6.29% cross-source screening ratio. It simply pairs an asking-rent index with a resale median and does not measure operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy for a property, or any investor outcome. The contrast between modest rent cooling, a longer but variable historical rise, high survey burden, and a steeper resale-price decline warrants careful source separation rather than a single conclusion. Useful property-level checks are the actual bedroom count, lease start date, advertised and included utilities, concession terms, unit condition, direct nearby listing comparisons, sale date, and whether the property fits the ZIP boundary. Which of those unit-specific facts would materially change the aggregate picture?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 02125 Zillow ZORI was $3,381 in June 2026 and declined 1.5% from the same month a year earlier. That short-term cooling contrasts with positive exact same-month annualized changes over three and five years. The historical record is complete, but measured variation and prior drawdown mean the current index is a useful snapshot rather than a fixed rent level.","title":"Current rent signal is cooler than its longer history"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA survey reports $82,953 median household income and a $1,949 median gross rent, while ZORI is a current asking-rent index. The $135,240 income figure from the 30% screen is arithmetic based on current ZORI, not a qualification standard. The 47.2% rent-burden share describes surveyed renter households broadly and cannot characterize a particular tenant or property.","title":"Survey affordability evidence is materially tighter than the asking-rent index"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates use ZIP ZORI scaled by the local HUD bedroom ladder. Their purpose is to show a consistent size gradient around the current index, not to claim measured rents by bedroom count. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, while ZORI is an asking-rent index; neither replaces direct checks of available units, utility treatment, concessions, and lease terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are modeled, not observed rent comps"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a $644,854 median sold price, down 8.7% year over year, while Zillow asking rent eased only 1.5%. Homes still sold and marketing time remained measurable, but those indicators describe for-sale liquidity rather than rental demand. The 6.29% annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish property economics.","title":"Resale data challenge a simple rent-strength interpretation"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index rather than a set of signed leases or unit-specific quotes, so listing composition, utilities, concessions, and bedroom mix can make actual offerings differ materially.","The Census ZCTA is a statistical approximation matched to the Zillow ZIP identifier, not a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS five-year estimates include survey timing and margins of error.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks, while the bedroom rent ladder is modelled from those standards and current ZORI; neither source measures the rent of a specific available bedroom type.","Redfin resale indicators concern completed for-sale transactions over a rolling three-month ZIP window. They cannot verify rental pricing, expenses, unit condition, financing terms, or outcomes for an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. It is not a count of signed leases, a survey of occupied homes, or a bedroom-specific rent measurement. Its June 2026 value is useful for current asking-rent direction, but individual listings can vary because of size, condition, utilities, and concessions.","q":"What does the Zillow rent index measure here?"},{"a":"They describe different evidence universes. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow ZORI is a current asking-rent index. Differences in household population, survey timing, utility treatment, and the distinction between occupied homes and available asking rents prevent a direct like-for-like comparison.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent much lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The required-income figure is calculated by applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to annualized current ZORI. It is arithmetic only, not financial advice, an applicant rule, or a claim about any household. The ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent and cannot determine the burden for a particular unit or tenant.","q":"How should the required-income and burden figures be used?"},{"a":"No. The 6.29% figure only divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s rolling three-month resale observation. It combines separate sources and does not include property expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, vacancy experience, unit condition, or lease terms. Direct listing and property records remain necessary for property-level assessment.","q":"Does the resale screen establish a property-level result?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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