ZIP 02127 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for June 2026 was $4,141, rising 4.39% from a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a median lease, a utility-inclusive household payment, or a quote for a specific available unit. The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA reported median gross rent of $2,736. That lower survey measure describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it should not be treated as a substitute for the current Zillow asking-rent index.
The affordability tension is narrow at the household-median level but broad in the renter survey. Applying the 30% screen to the current ZIP ZORI produces required annual income of $165,640, slightly above the ZCTA median household income of $164,387. This is arithmetic based on a rent index, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about any household’s ability to pay. In the ACS occupied-renter universe, 3,329 of 9,886 renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent, a 33.7% share. Because ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty and selected-utility treatment, the burden result characterizes a population rather than a current listing or a particular tenant.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local FY2026 HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $2,923 for a studio, $3,155 for one bedroom, $4,141 for two bedrooms, $5,177 for three bedrooms, and $5,483 for four bedrooms. HUD’s underlying bedroom standards run from $1,631 through $3,060 and are administrative FMR or SAFMR benchmarks, not asking rents. The estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the overall level to Zillow ZORI; they do not establish observed ZIP rents for any bedroom count. A live listing can depart from this ladder because the calculation is not a unit-level measurement.
The history supports a positive but unevenly paced path rather than a straight-line reading of the latest index. Exact same-month annualized Zillow ZORI growth was 4.39% over one year, 3.42% over three years, and 5.32% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward history, although the one-year pace is below the five-year pace. The record contains 138 monthly observations with complete coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.59% indicates that monthly changes were not fixed, while a 6.22% maximum drawdown shows that the series has experienced meaningful retreat from an earlier high. Those backward-looking measures support more confidence in the general level than a single isolated observation, but they do not make the current snapshot a forecast. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 643 for momentum, 859 for stability, and 344 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher.
ACS housing-stock evidence shows a renter-majority setting without proving availability at a particular address. The ZCTA had 19,534 housing units, a 7.5% vacancy rate, and a 54.7% renter-occupied share. It also counted 255 vacant units classified as for rent. The reported structure mix includes single-family and large-multifamily categories, so the aggregate stock is not a single property type. Vacancy is an area-level census condition, not confirmation that a desired unit is open, competitively priced, or suitable. Likewise, renter share and rent burden describe the surveyed ZCTA population and should not be used to infer an individual building’s turnover, concessions, lease quality, or resident finances.
Redfin supplies a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $979,779, up 7.37% year over year, with 159 homes sold and a median 24 days on market. Active listings numbered 471, while inventory was 197 and 0.63% lower than a year earlier; months of supply measured 3.7. The sale-to-list signals were an average 99.03% sale-to-list ratio, a 22.6% share sold above list, and a 40.19% share going off market within a fortnight. These resale signals move in the same broad upward direction as the rent history, yet they do not ease the tight income screen implied by the asking-rent index. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 5.07%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio; it does not incorporate property-specific costs, financing, taxes, operations, or matched unit characteristics.
Wider-area values provide context only: Boston city context rent was $3,469, Suffolk County context rent was $3,423, and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context rent was $3,210. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index sits above each wider-scope rent figure, but those values are not ZIP rental comparables and should not be merged with the ZCTA survey measures. The ZCTA renter share is below the reported city and county context shares, while its ACS rent-burden share is also below the corresponding city and county context measures. Those contrasts can frame scale, but they cannot explain differences or establish that a specific 02127 property will perform like the city, county, or metro aggregate.
The evidence has clear limits: ZORI is an asking-rent index, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD provides administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin observes ZIP resale activity. None supplies executed lease terms, unit condition, utility responsibility, building fees, tenant turnover, or a property-level operating statement. Before relying on the modelled ladder or the resale screen, verify the live advertised rent, exact bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, unit availability, and whether the unit’s characteristics actually resemble the evidence being compared. For a sale-oriented review, also verify like-for-like completed sales and property-specific cost assumptions. The practical question is whether a particular unit’s documented terms fit the current asking-rent, household-screen, and resale evidence without treating any aggregate source as a guarantee.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI indicates a current typical observed asking-rent level of $4,141 for ZIP 02127, while ACS median gross rent is $2,736. The comparison is useful as a source-universe gap, not as a direct rent-comp comparison: ZORI blends asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the ZCTA survey benchmark"},{"body":"At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current ZORI implies $165,640 in annual income, slightly above the ZCTA median household income of $164,387. Separately, ACS reports that 33.7% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at the 30% gross-rent threshold. Neither measure determines affordability for a specific applicant or lease.","title":"The income screen is close to the area household median"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow ZORI growth is positive over one, three, and five years, with the latest annual pace above the three-year pace but below the five-year pace. Complete monthly coverage improves confidence in the historical record. Still, recorded monthly variability and the prior maximum drawdown show that rent-index changes have not been uniform and are not forecasts.","title":"History is positive, but a current reading still has uncertainty"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows higher median sold prices year over year, measurable transaction volume, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list indicators below a universal bidding-war interpretation. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen. It cannot establish economics for a property because it omits unit matching and property-specific costs.","title":"Resale evidence confirms price momentum but remains a separate market"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index, ACS gross-rent survey, and HUD bedroom standards use different populations, timing, and definitions. Combining them as though they were interchangeable measured rents would overstate precision.","The 30% income calculation is a simple arithmetic screen using an index level. It does not account for household composition, savings, debts, utility arrangements, subsidies, credit, or actual applicant qualification.","Bedroom figures are modelled from ZIP ZORI and the local HUD ladder rather than observed bedroom-specific listings. A unit’s actual asking rent can differ materially because bedroom count is only one property characteristic.","Redfin resale metrics describe for-sale transactions in a rolling ZIP observation, not rental transactions or property operating results. The rent-to-price screen excludes financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, fees, and unit-level comparability."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures describe different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference is therefore not proof that any current unit is overpriced or that ACS is a current asking-rent series.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent figure much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking-rent observations. The resulting estimates are useful for consistent sizing, but live listings must be checked for actual unit rents, utilities, and features.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents for studios through four bedrooms?"},{"a":"The history shows positive same-month growth across the measured horizons and complete monthly coverage, which makes the series more informative than a lone current observation. However, annualized monthly-return variability and the documented maximum drawdown show that the series has moved unevenly. These are backward-looking measurements, so they support context rather than a forecast of future rent changes.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current ZORI level?"},{"a":"Use it only as a broad cross-source screening ratio formed by annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the ZIP median sold price. It compares an asking-rent index with a resale statistic from a different market universe. It does not include operating expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, fees, vacancies, repairs, or property-specific rent and sale comparables.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price percentage be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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