Resale price momentum sits beside much slower asking-rent growth in ZIP 02134, creating the central cross-market tension. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $3,123 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for one available home. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider asking-rent-index context, Boston city was $3,469, Suffolk County was $3,423, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro was $3,210; those city, county, and metro figures are context only, not substitutes for the ZIP measure.
The rent path was positive but has cooled relative to its longer record. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes were 1.97% over one year, 2.69% over three years, and 6.00% over five years through the stated endpoint. Thus, recent direction still confirms growth, yet it breaks from the faster pace embedded in the five-year path. The history has full monthly coverage across 138 observations, which supports use of the trend description. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.71%, indicating relatively limited month-to-month movement and moderately more confidence in the current snapshot than a highly erratic series would warrant. Separately, the maximum historical drawdown was 10.08%, showing that even this generally stable record has experienced meaningful reversals. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,366 for momentum, 1,074 for stability, and 1,114 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom figures require a different interpretation from Zillow ZORI itself. The modelled monthly ZIP estimates, created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder, are $2,204 for a studio, $2,380 for one bedroom, $3,123 for two bedrooms, $3,904 for three bedrooms, and $4,135 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The supplied FY2026 HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,311. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it is useful for the ladder construction but does not establish what a landlord is currently requesting. The alignment of the two-bedroom modelled estimate with the ZIP-wide ZORI reflects the model design, not direct evidence that a typical two-bedroom listing rents at that amount.
ACS provides a distinct occupied-home affordability lens. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA, median gross rent was $2,358, making the current Zillow asking-rent index 32.4% higher. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes over a survey period and includes selected utilities, while Zillow measures a current typical observed asking-rent index; neither replaces the other. Median household income was $78,679. Applying the mechanical 30% screen to the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $124,920. That calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The asking-rent-to-income cross-measure is 47.6%, while 3,786 of 7,164 renter households, or 52.8%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% in ACS. That burden statistic describes surveyed households collectively and cannot prove the affordability of any particular unit.
The housing base is notably renter-oriented, which gives the ACS renter results substantial relevance to the ZIP’s occupied stock without converting them into listing evidence. The ZCTA recorded 8,999 housing units and an overall vacancy rate of 8.7%. Renters occupied 87.2% of occupied homes. Structure counts included 3,391 units in large multifamily buildings and 693 single-family units, illustrating that the stock spans more than one housing form. Vacancy is a point-in-time area statistic, not confirmation that a specific listing is vacant, rentable, appropriately priced, or available on a given date. Likewise, the renter share says nothing by itself about lease terms, utilities, condition, or the composition of current asking-rent listings.
Redfin adds direct ZIP for-sale evidence, not rental transactions. Its rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 30 reports a median sold price of $679,846, up 10.36% from a year earlier. There were 19 homes sold, with a median 33 days on market. Inventory was 53 homes and months of supply stood at 8.6, both measures of the resale market’s available-for-sale conditions. Sale-to-list evidence was mixed rather than uniformly aggressive: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.69%, 22.24% of sales closed above list, and 37.45% moved off market rapidly. These measures are direct ZIP resale signals only; they are not rental comparables, evidence of rent paid, or proof of economics for a rental property.
The cross-source tension is consequential: resale prices showed a strong year-over-year increase while asking-rent growth was positive but below the longer historical pace. At the same time, reported resale supply and the average discount from list temper a simple interpretation of the sold-price increase. The ACS screen also shows a large gap between current asking rent and both household income and occupied-home gross rent. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price equals a 5.51% screening ratio. It is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level earnings measure, because it omits unit characteristics, actual collected rent, operating costs, financing, taxes, and transaction details. The rent history, affordability evidence, and resale evidence therefore confirm different parts of the market rather than a single unified condition.
Limits matter most when translating area aggregates to a specific address. ZORI blends rental types and is not a bedroom-level listing dataset; ACS is a multi-year survey with different timing and population coverage; HUD is a program standard; and Redfin covers completed resale activity. Property-level review requires verification of the actual listed rent, legal bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, listing date, availability status, property type, sale date, sale price, and the relationship between any active list price and completed sales. Those checks can identify whether a particular home resembles the evidence universe behind each metric. The decision question is therefore not whether one ZIP statistic settles value, but which claims can be verified for the particular unit or sale under review.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is above the matched ACS occupied-home gross-rent measure, while the one-year rent change is below the three-year and five-year annualized changes. Full history coverage and low monthly variability support the direction-of-trend reading, but the historical drawdown shows that a single current index point should not be treated as permanent.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but slower"},{"body":"The mechanical income screen based on current asking rent is materially above the area median household income, and more than half of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above the threshold. This does not describe any individual applicant or apartment, but it establishes a ZIP-level tension between current asking-rent conditions and ACS household finances.","title":"Affordability signals are strained across separate measures"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use the local HUD ladder to distribute the ZIP-wide Zillow index across bedroom sizes. They are useful for comparing relative bedroom scaling, but HUD standards are administrative benchmarks and the resulting amounts are not measured rents from currently marketed apartments or completed rental transactions.","title":"Bedroom amounts are model outputs, not observed rents"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a higher median sold price than a year earlier, yet its supply, sale-to-list, and above-list indicators do not present a uniformly tight resale picture. That mix challenges any attempt to infer a simple relationship between sale-price movement and the more moderate recent growth in the asking-rent index.","title":"Resale data complicate the rental signal"}],"risks":["The ZIP-wide asking-rent index blends rental types and does not verify the rent, availability, utility treatment, lease terms, or legal bedroom count of a particular advertised apartment.","ACS gross rent and burden results summarize surveyed occupied renter households across a five-year period, so they cannot establish present affordability or payment experience for a specific household.","The HUD ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than market asking rent, making its scaled bedroom estimates sensitive to the modelling assumption that local rent relationships follow that ladder.","Redfin resale observations cover completed for-sale transactions and listed supply, not rentals; using the rent-to-price screen as a property outcome would omit operating, financing, tax, condition, and transaction differences."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different universes and time frames. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference is informative, but it is not evidence that either source is incorrect.","q":"Why do Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled ZIP estimates generated by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. They indicate relative bedroom-size positioning under that method, but they do not measure advertised rents, signed leases, concessions, utilities, or specific apartment characteristics.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed apartment rents?"},{"a":"The full observation coverage and relatively low annualized monthly variability make the current index more interpretable than a sparse or highly volatile series. However, the recorded maximum drawdown demonstrates that the historical path has included reversals. The latest value is therefore a useful observation, not a prediction or a guaranteed continuing trend.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP Zillow asking rent divided by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price, making it a cross-source screening ratio only. It does not include actual collected rent, vacancy, expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, physical condition, unit mix, or transaction costs. It should not be converted into a property-level performance conclusion.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price figure be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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