ZIP 02135 begins with a below-context but still rising asking-rent signal. At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI is $3,117 per month, up 2.62% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a quote for every available home. For wider context, Boston city context rent is $3,469.070594145843, Suffolk County context rent is $3,423, and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context rent is $3,210; every one is a wider-area comparison rather than a ZIP estimate. The immediate tension is that the ZIP index sits below all three broader benchmarks while its affordability screen remains demanding relative to local reported income.
The broader path reads as stable growth rather than a straight line. In exact same-month, annualized comparisons through the stated endpoint, the one-year change is 2.62%, the three-year change is 3.35%, and the five-year change is 6.29%. Thus, the latest positive direction confirms the longer upward path, but its pace is lower than both longer annualized measurements. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.38%, maximum drawdown is -8.49%, and history coverage is 100%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,006 for momentum, 512 for stability, and 432 for the balanced measure, with lower rank higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Complete coverage supports a more representative history, while variability and the prior drawdown limit confidence in treating one current index reading as a precise property-level rent.
The contrast with ACS should not be read as an error or a discount. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $2,249, versus the current asking-rent index above. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities; it is neither a current asking-rent series nor a measure limited to newly marketed units. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though the five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match here. Different timing, occupancy, and utility treatment can therefore coexist without establishing that any particular home should command either figure. This scope gap is central when comparing a listing with household-survey rent data.
Bedroom framing sharpens the gap but does not create observed bedroom rents. The modelled monthly ZIP estimates, scaled from ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, are $2,200 for a studio, $2,375 for one bedroom, $3,117 for two bedrooms, $3,897 for three bedrooms, and $4,127 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent: its studio, two-bedroom, and four-bedroom standards are $1,631, $2,311, and $3,060. The ladder provides a transparent relative-size pattern; it does not establish a listing’s condition, utilities, furnishing, lease terms, or actual bedroom premium. Readers should compare like-sized advertised units first and treat the outputs as ZIP-scaled reference points.
The income tension is sharper when applying a consistent arithmetic screen to the index. A $3,117 monthly asking-rent index requires $124,680 in annual income at a 30% rent-to-income screen, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $90,829. Annualizing the index against that median yields 41.2%, which is a ratio comparison across different source universes, not a household budget. The 30% screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 7,456 renter households spending at least that share of income on gross rent, equal to 46.0% of 16,219 renter-occupied homes. That burden estimate describes surveyed households collectively; it cannot prove a particular renter’s finances or a particular unit’s affordability.
Housing counts add supply context without showing available choices. The ACS ZCTA contains 22,379 housing units, with 1,236 vacant units and a 5.5% vacancy rate. Renters account for 76.7% of occupied homes, and 562 units are classified vacant for rent. These aggregates are consistent with a renter-majority occupancy base, but they do not identify which homes are actively offered, their asking prices, their condition, or their lease readiness. Vacancy is a status category at the survey level, not confirmation that a usable comparable unit exists. It should therefore be read alongside the current asking-rent index and property-level availability rather than as evidence of negotiating room or an outcome for a specific address.
The practical limit is alignment: a ZIP-wide blended index, a ZCTA household survey, and an administrative HUD standard answer different questions on different schedules. No source here measures the advertised rent, utility package, or concession on a given apartment, and historical index movement does not make those terms predictable. Before using this report for a specific property, confirm the address’s delivery ZIP and market match, advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, included and excluded utilities, building type, availability date, lease duration, fees, concessions, and any income or occupancy requirements. Then compare the verified all-in terms to the appropriate source universe: current ZORI for ZIP-level asking context, ACS for occupied-household context, and HUD for the administrative ladder. Does the specific listing’s documented terms and bedroom configuration actually match the scope of the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 02135 ZORI is $3,117, with a 2.62% same-month annual increase. Boston city context rent is $3,469.070594145843, Suffolk County context rent is $3,423, and metro context rent is $3,210. These wider-area figures establish comparison scope only; they do not replace the ZIP-level asking-rent index.","title":"Current signal sits below broader contexts"},{"body":"Exact same-month annualized growth was 2.62% over one year, 3.35% over three years, and 6.29% over five years. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.38%, with a -8.49% maximum drawdown and 100% coverage. The positive latest change continues the historical direction but at a slower annualized pace. This remains retrospective evidence, not a rent forecast.","title":"Long path remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $2,249 is an occupied-renter-household survey figure that includes selected utilities, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. The studio-through-four-bedroom sequence of $2,200, $2,375, $3,117, $3,897, and $4,127 is modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the HUD ladder. It is not observed rent evidence for bedrooms.","title":"ACS and bedroom figures answer different questions"},{"body":"A $124,680 annual income corresponds arithmetically to the $3,117 index at a 30% screen, above the $90,829 ZCTA median household income. ACS also records 46.0% of renter households as burdened at that threshold. A 5.5% ZCTA vacancy rate and 562 vacant-for-rent units are aggregate survey statuses, not confirmation of a suitable available unit.","title":"Affordability pressure coexists with aggregate vacancy"}],"risks":["Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is blended across rental types and describes typical observed asking-rent conditions. It can differ materially from a particular listing because this packet does not provide unit condition, furnishing, utilities, fees, concessions, timing, or lease terms.","The ACS ZCTA result is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, not a current ZIP listing feed. Its statistical geography differs from USPS delivery ZIP boundaries, and timing, sampled households, and selected utilities constrain direct comparison with Zillow asking-rent context.","Bedroom outputs are modelled by applying a local HUD administrative ladder to the blended ZIP ZORI. Because HUD FMR/SAFMR is not asking rent and bedrooms are not separately observed here, unit-specific premiums or discounts remain unmeasured.","Vacancy and rent-burden fields summarize area-level survey classifications and households, not a particular address or applicant. They cannot establish actual availability, leasing leverage, tenant finances, condition, charges, concessions, or qualification treatment for any listed unit."],"qa":[{"a":"The $3,117 figure is the June 2026 ZIP-level Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for market-level asking context, but it is not a promised lease price, an all-in housing cost, or a measured bedroom-specific rent for a given address.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"They describe different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the stated endpoint. ACS median gross rent is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical and not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why can the ACS and Zillow rent values differ?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly ZIP estimates that scale the blended ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Consequently, the sequence is a relative sizing tool and cannot validate an advertised rent for a specific floor plan.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The $124,680 figure is simple arithmetic: annualized $3,117 divided by the 30% screen. It is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households at or above that gross-rent share; it does not determine a named renter’s finances or whether a particular available home is affordable.","q":"What does the required-income and burden evidence tell a reader?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small 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