At June 2026, Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI was $3,336 per month, up 3.5% from the same month a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease ledger or an individual-unit quote. The immediate tension is cross-market: the direct ZIP for-sale median sold price was $1,189,681 in the rolling-three-month window ending June 30, down 8.0% year over year, while the asking-rent index increased. Annualizing ZORI and dividing by that resale median produces a 3.36% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The divergence flags that rental and resale observations are moving differently, without establishing why.
The backward-looking rent path is positive but has decelerated relative to its longer window. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 3.54% over 1-year and 3.68% over 3-years, compared with 5.62% over 5-years. Thus the latest annual gain confirms continued growth rather than breaking the longer upward path, but it trails the five-year pace. The history has 99.28% coverage, comprising 137 observations and 135 consecutive monthly returns, so the series is near-complete rather than a sparse snapshot. Monthly-return variability annualizes to 3.27%, which limits precision around a current reading; separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 13.59%, showing a material past retreat can occur within an overall rising path. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 738 for momentum, 2,007 for stability, and 1,174 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are descriptive ranks and backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA provides a different household universe. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; here it is the Census match for the Zillow ZIP label 02138. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $2,772, a measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. ZORI was 20.3% higher, a definitional difference rather than evidence that either series is incorrect: it is a current asking-rent index across rental types. The ZCTA median household income was $119,967. Arithmetic at a 30% rent-to-income screen places the current index at $133,440 of annual income and 33.4% of that median. That screen is not advice and does not determine applicant qualification.
Bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, producing $2,354 for a studio, $2,542 for one bedroom, $3,336 for two bedrooms, $4,170 for three bedrooms, and $4,417 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,311, making the ZIP ZORI 144.4% of that standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and its purpose and construction differ from both Zillow's blended index and ACS gross rent. The ladder usefully keeps bedroom spacing locally anchored, but it does not observe availability, condition, utilities, concessions, or the rent of any particular unit.
Within the matched ZCTA stock, 5,511 units sit in large multifamily structures and renter occupancy is the larger tenure group. The 11.7% overall vacancy rate spans several vacant classifications, including units marked for rent, for sale, and seasonal use; it cannot demonstrate availability, condition, or pricing for a specific rental. In the ACS renter-household survey, 48.2% reported gross rent consuming 30% or more of household income. This observed burden is different from the arithmetic screen: it describes surveyed occupied renter households, not the payment burden or eligibility of any prospective tenant. Together, the stock, vacancy, and burden figures widen the frame beyond a typical current asking-rent index.
Comparison readings sharpen scale but do not replace ZIP evidence. Cambridge city context has a $3,598 asking-rent index, Middlesex County context has $3,260, and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context has $3,210; each is a wider geography than the ZIP. Cambridge city's ACS median gross rent is nearly aligned with the ZIP ZCTA reading, whereas the county's median gross rent is lower, but those series remain context only. The ZIP's renter-majority tenure mix contrasts with the county context's lower renter share, and the metro's apartment vacancy statistic is a separate market measure from the ZCTA's all-unit vacancy rate. These comparisons give scale, not local rental comps, and do not modify Zillow, ACS, HUD, or Redfin definitions.
Redfin's direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observation is solely for-sale evidence, not rental transactions, property economics, or a rent comparable set. Its liquidity signals show different facets: 87 homes sold with a median 20 days on market, while inventory was 78 homes and months of supply were 2.7. The average sale-to-list ratio reached 102.11%, and 44.75% of sales closed above list. Those measures coexist with the resale-price decline reported above and with rent-index growth, showing that above-list outcomes and a lower annual median price can appear in the same window. They challenge any simple reading of the rent/price screen, which remains only an annualized-ZORI-to-median-price ratio and not a property-level financial measure.
Every number above has a scope and timing limit. ZORI is a typical asking-rent index, so it cannot identify an actual quoted rent, lease execution, bedroom mix, or concession. ACS estimates have sampling uncertainty, and matched ZCTA boundaries are statistical rather than USPS delivery boundaries. HUD is a standard, history is backward-looking, and the Redfin window is resale-only. Property-level verification can check the listing's bedroom count and asking price; utilities and fees; lease term and concessions; unit condition and availability date; building type; and the actual comparable rental and sale records used for the decision. Those checks determine whether a particular address resembles any ZIP-level signal, while none of the aggregate screens establishes unit vacancy, tenant burden, or transaction economics.
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI reached $3,336 in June 2026 after a 3.5% same-month gain. In the direct ZIP resale window, the median sold price fell 8.0% to $1,189,681. Asking-rent and resale measures cover different transactions, so the contrast is a decision tension rather than a reconciled market price. The 3.36% annual-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen.","title":"Rent and resale are diverging"},{"body":"Same-month history shows 3.54% annualized growth over 1 year, 3.68% over 3 years, and 5.62% over 5 years. Recent growth therefore remains positive but below the longer pace. Near-complete series coverage improves evidence continuity, yet 3.27% annualized monthly variability and a 13.59% historical drawdown caution against treating today's index as a fixed point.","title":"History shows growth with an uneven path"},{"body":"The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey reports $2,772 median gross rent, including selected utilities, versus the current $3,336 asking-rent index. The gap reflects separate universes. HUD's two-bedroom $2,311 FMR/SAFMR standard instead anchors the modelled bedroom ladder; it does not measure an asking rent or validate a particular unit's quote.","title":"Definitions shape the affordability gap"},{"body":"Redfin's rolling three-month ZIP resale record shows for-sale liquidity through sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Those are resale signals only. They may coexist with ZORI movement, but they do not describe rental leases, establish a unit's economics, or convert the annualized rent-to-price screening ratio into a yield measure.","title":"Resale liquidity is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index is blended across rental types, so a particular listing's bedroom count, condition, utilities, incentives, availability, and lease terms may cause its quote to depart materially from ZIP-level evidence.","ACS ZCTA figures are five-year survey estimates of occupied households, and the ZCTA is not a USPS ZIP. Sampling uncertainty and boundary mismatch constrain direct comparison with current ZIP asking rents.","The vacancy and rent-burden measures are aggregate classifications. They cannot establish that a certain unit is vacant, affordable, eligible, maintained, or subject to the same payment burden as surveyed households.","The Redfin observation is a rolling resale window, not a rental-comp or property-income dataset. Median sale price and sale-to-list signals cannot determine financing, expenses, net income, or economics for an address."],"qa":[{"a":"At the June 2026 endpoint, ZORI is Zillow's typical observed ZIP asking-rent index, blended across rental types. It reports neither an individual listing's price nor executed leases, utility package, concession, bedroom-specific availability, or rent paid by an existing household.","q":"What does the current ZORI represent?"},{"a":"The calculation annualizes the $3,336 monthly index and divides by 30%, yielding $133,440. Comparing that threshold with the $119,967 ZCTA median household income produces 33.4%. It is a transparent arithmetic screen, not a recommendation, lending decision, affordability guarantee, or applicant qualification standard.","q":"How does the 30% required-income screen work?"},{"a":"Redfin observes ZIP for-sale and resale transactions in a rolling three-month window, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. Dividing annualized ZORI by Redfin's median sold price creates a cross-source ratio with no property expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, lease data, or net income. It cannot be a cap rate or property yield.","q":"Why is the resale screen not a property yield?"},{"a":"An address-level review can verify the actual bedroom count, quoted rent, utilities, mandatory fees, concessions, lease term, unit condition, availability date, building type, and relevant rental and sale records. Those facts help determine whether an address resembles a ZIP aggregate, without treating vacancy, burden, ZORI, or resale statistics as proof about that unit.","q":"What property-level checks can connect this report to an address?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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