ZIP 02144’s sharpest measured tension is between the current Zillow asking-rent signal and the survey record of occupied renter homes. The ZIP Zillow ZORI is $3,844 per month, versus an ACS median gross rent of $2,702, a 42.3% gap. The current index is 6.1% above its same-month prior-year reading. Against local median household income of $150,313, the arithmetic income needed to keep that asking-rent index at a 30% rent share is $153,760, placing the screen at 30.7% of median income. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is useful as a current market indicator but does not represent every lease, apartment size, or utility arrangement.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey measures occupied renter homes rather than current listings, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Within that matched ZCTA, the $2,702 gross-rent median should therefore not be treated as a direct competitor listing comparison with Zillow’s asking-rent index. ACS estimates that 34.8% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent, while renters make up 63.4% of occupied homes. That burden measure describes surveyed households in aggregate; it cannot establish affordability, payment history, or conditions for a particular household or unit.
The housing-stock evidence shows 12,034 total housing units, of which 11,357 were occupied and 677 were vacant, producing a 5.6% vacancy rate. Only 72 vacant units were classified as for rent in the ACS snapshot. The stock also included 1,459 single-family units and 1,556 units in large multifamily structures, a reminder that the ZIP-level rent index spans a mix of housing forms. Vacancy is not a current availability count, and the for-rent vacancy category is not evidence that any specific unit is available, appropriately priced, or comparable to the current ZORI. It instead supplies a broad survey-based check on the scale and occupancy of the local housing inventory.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,713 for a studio, $2,929 for one bedroom, $3,844 for two bedrooms, $4,805 for three bedrooms, and $5,090 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent: the local two-bedroom HUD benchmark is $2,311, making the ZIP ZORI-based two-bedroom model 66.3% higher. The ladder helps organize size differences around the ZIP index, but it does not account for condition, utilities, lease concessions, furnishings, or the actual bedroom mix represented in current listings.
The rent-history record supports a continuing upward longer path but argues against treating one reading as frictionless. The one-year exact same-month annualized rent change was 6.1%, the three-year measure was 5.0%, and the five-year measure was 7.0%. Recent direction therefore confirms the positive multi-year path, although the latest pace remains below the five-year rate. History coverage is 100%, based on 124 monthly observations and 123 sequential monthly returns. At 4.0%, annualized monthly-return variability indicates meaningful month-to-month movement around that trend, reducing confidence in a single current snapshot. Separately, the worst peak-to-trough drawdown reached 10.4%, showing that a rising multi-year record still contained a material reversal. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 221, stability at 2,581, and balanced performance at 995, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
For wider asking-rent context, Somerville city context is $3,588.91, Middlesex County context is $3,260, and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context is $3,210. The ZIP index sits above each of those broader geography measures, but the city, county, and metro values are context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. Their differing renter populations, housing mixes, and source scopes prevent a clean inference that a unit in 02144 should command any specific premium. The ZIP’s lower ACS burden share than the broader county context can similarly describe aggregate households without resolving whether the current asking-rent level is workable for a given renter profile.
Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation belongs strictly to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It reports a median sold price of $1,157,738, up 0.7% year over year, with 59 homes sold, 19 median days on market, 139 active listings, 51 homes of inventory, and 2.6 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were firm: the average sale-to-list ratio was 102.9%, and 52.7% of sales closed above list price. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 4.0% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-growth narrative because sold-price appreciation was much slower than the current rent-index change, while short marketing time and above-list outcomes still indicate active resale conditions. Neither point validates rental economics for a property.
All source differences remain decision-critical. Zillow tracks a blended asking-rent index; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied households with selected utilities; HUD supplies an administrative standard; and Redfin records ZIP resale activity. None measures the exact rent, expense structure, tenant demand, condition, or transaction economics of an individual home. Concrete property-level checks should include current same-bedroom asking comparables, actual lease and concession terms, utility responsibility, unit condition, legal bedroom count, building type, days listed, occupancy status, and recent address-level sale records. The key unresolved question is whether a particular unit’s current terms resemble the index and modelled ladder rather than merely sharing the ZIP label.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP Zillow ZORI is $3,844 monthly, while the matched ACS median gross rent is $2,702. That difference is meaningful, but it does not prove mispricing because Zillow tracks current observed asking rents across rental types and ACS describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period with selected utilities included.","title":"Current asking rent is materially above the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"Applying a 30% rent-share calculation to the current ZIP asking-rent index produces required annual income of $153,760, slightly above the ACS median household income of $150,313. This is arithmetic rather than advice, a qualification rule, or a finding about any applicant’s ability to pay.","title":"Income screening is close to the local household-income midpoint"},{"body":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month rent changes are all positive, but the five-year pace exceeds the latest annual pace. Monthly-return variability and the recorded maximum drawdown mean the current index should be read as a point within a changing series, not as a fixed rent guarantee.","title":"History shows growth with limited snapshot stability"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence shows short marketing time, above-list sale signals, and limited months of supply. At the same time, median sold-price growth was modest relative to the current rent-index change. The resulting rent-price screening ratio is only a cross-source comparison and cannot represent operating performance.","title":"Resale liquidity is firm, but resale appreciation is restrained"}],"risks":["The gap between Zillow asking rent and ACS median gross rent reflects different universes, timing, occupancy status, and utility treatment, so applying either measure directly to a specific apartment can misstate current market terms.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the ZIP ZORI and HUD ladder assumptions. They do not observe actual bedroom rents and can differ materially from a unit because of condition, layout, utilities, concessions, or building characteristics.","Positive historical rent changes do not eliminate reversal risk. The measured drawdown and elevated variability show that one current index observation carries less certainty than a stable series would provide.","Redfin resale metrics describe completed for-sale transactions over a rolling period, not rental transactions or property operations. Sale prices, marketing speed, and list-price outcomes cannot establish rent, expenses, tenant demand, or returns for an individual asset."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, intended to reflect current asking conditions. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, renter populations, unit mixes, and utility treatment can create a substantial gap.","q":"Why does the Zillow rent figure differ from the ACS rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by a 30% rent-share threshold. It is an arithmetic affordability screen, not leasing advice, a lender standard, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification decision. Actual qualification can depend on income documentation, household composition, credit, debts, guarantors, and lease terms.","q":"Does the 30% required-income calculation determine whether someone qualifies for a lease?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than asking-rent observations. The model provides a consistent size framework, but current unit-level listings may differ for many reasons not captured by the ladder.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom figures observed rents for those unit sizes?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price, combining a rental asking-rent index with a for-sale resale statistic. It is useful only as a high-level cross-source screening ratio. It excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy, property condition, and unit-specific rent, so it is not a cap rate or return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 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