The primary tension in ZIP 02145 is that asking-rent momentum remains positive while direct resale pricing is slightly softer. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $3,489, up 5.1% from a year earlier; it is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a record of every signed lease. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider asking-rent context, Somerville city is $3,589, Middlesex County is $3,260, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro is $3,210. Those wider geographies are context rather than substitutes for this ZIP measurement.
History supports a sustained upward asking-rent path, but it also argues against treating one current observation as certain. Exact same-month change was 5.1% over one year, 4.2% annualized over three years, and 6.2% annualized over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, although it does not match the stronger five-year pace. Monthly ZORI changes annualize to 3.2% variability, indicating that smaller fluctuations around the current level have occurred. Separately, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown reached 6.1%, a meaningful historical setback despite the broader rise. Coverage includes 126 observations and 125 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 414, stability at 1,854, and the balanced measure at 685, reinforcing the mixed history classification rather than a uniformly stable pattern.
The current Zillow index should not be merged with survey or program benchmarks. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $2,398 for occupied renter homes; this is a survey measure that includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent series. The gap from ZORI can reflect the differing populations, timing, rent concepts, and utility treatment, rather than a measured change for a particular home. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,311, making ZORI 50.9% higher. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it is useful for the local ladder but cannot be read as a competing ZIP market rent observation.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, created by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly estimates are $2,462 for a studio, $2,659 for a one-bedroom, $3,489 for a two-bedroom, $4,362 for a three-bedroom, and $4,620 for a four-bedroom. Their internal pattern is useful when comparing unit sizes against one consistent ZIP-wide asking-rent anchor. It does not establish that currently available apartments at those bedroom counts are priced at those levels, nor does it replace unit-level listings, utility terms, condition, or lease information.
The affordability screen shows a different tension between the ZIP asking-rent index and area-wide household resources. Median household income in the ACS ZCTA is $123,755, while annual income needed to place the current ZORI at a 30% rent-to-income screen is $139,560. That arithmetic puts the index at 33.8% of median household income. It is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about any household’s actual housing payment. In the survey’s occupied renter-home universe, 2,783 of 7,691 renter households, or 36.2%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent. The renter share is 64.4%, so renter conditions materially shape the ZCTA profile, but burden statistics cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular unit.
Housing stock and vacancy evidence provide useful scale while remaining distinct from active rental supply. The ZCTA contains 12,537 housing units, of which 597 were vacant, producing a 4.8% vacancy rate. Only 217 vacancies were classified as for rent, a category that should not be interpreted as a live count of comparable available apartments or a forecast of concession pressure. The stock has a renter-majority tenure pattern and includes multifamily housing, which is relevant context for interpreting a blended rental index. Still, ACS vacancy and structure categories are survey-based area characteristics, not evidence that an individual property is vacant, rentable, renovated, or competitively priced.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation adds a meaningful counterweight to rent growth. Median sold price was $999,774, down 0.5% year over year, while 71 homes sold with a median 24 days on market. Inventory stood at 87 homes and months of supply measured 3.7, showing resale availability and turnover rather than rental transactions. Average sale-to-list was 99.6%, and a minority of sales closed above list; those are for-sale-market signals only. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.2% cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The slight resale-price decline challenges an overly simple reading of rising asking rents, while the sales pace and near-list pricing show that the resale evidence is not uniformly weak.
Several limits should remain central when using this ZIP profile. Zillow describes asking rents, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD supplies an administrative bedroom standard, and Redfin describes resale activity; none alone prices a specific home. Property-level review needs the live asking rent, concessions, lease term, bedroom count, utility billing, furnishing status, availability date, and whether the unit’s condition matches the broader index concept. A resale comparison also needs the actual property type, transaction status, listing history, and sale terms. The most useful next question is whether the specific unit’s documented terms align with the source universe being used for comparison.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI rose 5.1% over the latest same-month year and remains positive across the longer history. The five-year annualized gain exceeded the three-year pace, while historical drawdown and monthly variability show that upward movement has included reversals. This supports using the current index as a market indicator with moderate, rather than absolute, snapshot confidence.","title":"Asking-rent growth remains positive, but the path has not been uniformly stable"},{"body":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The differences between these values should not be treated as direct evidence of overpricing, underpricing, or change in a particular available apartment.","title":"Survey rent, HUD standards, and ZORI answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to place current ZORI at a 30% rent-to-income screen exceeds the ZCTA median household income. Separately, more than one-third of surveyed renter households reported rent burdens at or above that threshold. These measures describe area-level relationships and survey responses, not whether a given applicant or unit will meet a qualification standard.","title":"The income screen is tighter than the median-household comparison may first suggest"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a slightly lower median sold price year over year even as the asking-rent index increased. Homes still sold with relatively short marketing time and near-list average pricing, so the resale picture is mixed rather than uniformly soft. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and does not measure property economics.","title":"Resale evidence moderates the otherwise strong rent-growth signal"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match a live listing’s size, utility treatment, furnishing, lease duration, concessions, condition, or availability timing.","ACS results describe a matched ZCTA statistical area through a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, not a current inventory of ZIP listings or a measurement of current rents for vacant units.","Bedroom estimates are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI. They are not observed bedroom rents and should not be substituted for property-specific rental comparables or lease terms.","Redfin resale statistics concern for-sale transactions and listings within a rolling three-month ZIP observation. They do not describe rental transactions, property operating costs, financing, or any individual asset’s economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different universes and constructions. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent comes from surveyed occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The difference does not by itself identify market change, a pricing error, or the rent of a specific apartment.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling the overall ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The estimates provide a consistent sizing framework, but they are not measured listing rents, signed leases, or evidence that available units at each bedroom count are priced at those levels.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts actual observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It shows arithmetic only: the annual household income required for the current monthly ZORI to equal 30% of income. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual housing costs can differ because of utilities, concessions, household income, lease terms, and the rent of the particular unit.","q":"What does the rent-to-income screen show?"},{"a":"Use them as a separate view of the ZIP’s for-sale market. Median sale price, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe resale conditions rather than rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, or expected return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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