For ZCTA 02301, the decision question is whether a quoted lease is consistent with the current local asking-rent signal or is being judged against a mismatched benchmark. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $2,334 per month, up 0.99% year over year. That is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a listing guarantee or a bedroom-specific average. The five-digit label is also a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so users should verify the property’s actual mailing ZIP before applying this area profile. The useful first screen is therefore the property’s all-in quote versus the index, with unit details kept explicit.
The sharpest interpretive signal is the gap between datasets that answer different questions. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA is $1,659, with a $53 margin of error at the 90% confidence level; gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow’s current index is 40.7% higher, but that spread does not measure same-unit rent growth because ACS covers occupied homes over a survey window while ZORI tracks observed asking rents. FY2026 HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $2,311, making ZORI about 1.0% higher. That closeness is contextual only: HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, while Zillow is blended across rental types.
Bedroom sizing changes the practical comparison. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,647 for a studio, $1,779 for one bedroom, $2,334 for two, $2,918 for three and $3,090 for four. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The method preserves the local HUD ladder’s relative spacing while anchoring the two-bedroom result to ZIP ZORI; it does not establish what any specific landlord charges. For a unit-level decision, bedroom count is therefore indispensable, and differences in included utilities, condition, mandatory fees, lease terms or concessions can still separate a property’s effective price from either the modelled ladder or the administrative HUD standard.
Affordability signals are substantial but population-level. The ACS 2024 five-year median household income is $74,214, with a $5,680 margin of error. Annualizing ZORI and applying a 30% rent-to-income screen yields $93,360 in required income; against the median, the indexed asking rent equals 37.7% of annual income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Renters occupy 11,822 of 23,726 occupied homes, or 49.8%. ACS also estimates that 6,464 renter households spend at least 30% of income on gross rent, equal to 54.7% of renter households. That observed burden describes households in aggregate, not the affordability of a particular available unit.
Supply composition helps interpret the market without proving current availability. The ZCTA has 24,975 housing units, of which 1,249 are vacant, yielding a 5.0% overall housing vacancy rate. Only 286 vacant units are classified as for rent; other vacancies include units classified for sale, seasonal use and additional reasons. Because the categories describe survey status rather than live listings, overall housing vacancy should not be treated as a rental availability rate. The stock includes 10,328 single-family units and 2,520 units in large multifamily structures. Those counts show that the aggregate covers more than one structure type, but neither category identifies the size, price, condition, availability or lease terms of a unit under review.
Broader asking-rent context places the ZIP below each supplied comparison: ZIP-scope ZORI is $2,334, versus $2,406.23 for the Brockton city scope, $2,754 for the Plymouth County scope and $3,210 for the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro scope. These wider-area composites are context, not substitutes for the ZIP measure. Tenure differs as well: the ZIP renter share is 49.8%, compared with 42.6% in the Brockton city scope and 22.4% in the Plymouth County scope. The Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro-scope apartment vacancy context is 6.7%, but that apartment-market measure belongs to a different evidence universe from ACS overall housing vacancy and should not be read as the ZIP’s available-rental rate.
The report’s main limits are timing, geography, aggregation and definition. Zillow reflects its stated observation month, ACS pools a five-year survey, and HUD publishes a fiscal-year administrative schedule; none supplies a live property inventory. Confirm that the exact address falls in both the intended statistical area and the relevant USPS delivery ZIP. For a specific lease, check the bedroom count, advertised base rent, mandatory recurring charges, deposits, included utilities, lease duration, move-in concessions and whether any concession changes effective monthly rent. Compare a final all-in quote with the appropriate modelled bedroom estimate while retaining HUD only as an administrative reference and ACS as occupied-household background. Recalculate the arithmetic income screen for the actual quote, and do not infer unit availability or applicant affordability from aggregate vacancy or burden.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP-level ZORI is $2,334 per month and rose 0.99% year over year. It is a blended typical observed asking-rent index, so it can benchmark a current quote only after the rental type and all-in price are identified. It does not report the rent of a particular property or a measured two-bedroom average.","title":"Current asking-rent signal"},{"body":"The modelled monthly estimates run from $1,647 for a studio to $3,090 for four bedrooms, with $2,334 at two bedrooms. They scale ZIP ZORI using the relative spacing in the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, and the underlying HUD figures remain administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than observations of landlord asking prices.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"At the ACS median household income of $74,214, annualized ZIP ZORI represents 37.7% of income. The mechanical 30% screen produces required annual income of $93,360. Separately, ACS estimates that 54.7% of renter households devote at least 30% of income to gross rent. Neither calculation determines whether a particular household will qualify for or can sustain a specific lease.","title":"Income screen exceeds the median"},{"body":"The ZCTA has 1,249 vacant units and a 5.0% overall housing vacancy rate, but only 286 vacant units are classified as for rent. These survey categories are not a listing feed and do not establish that a suitable unit is currently available. The presence of both single-family and large multifamily stock also does not reveal the bedroom, price or condition mix of active rentals.","title":"Vacancy is not live availability"}],"risks":["Comparing Zillow ZORI directly with ACS median gross rent as though both measured the same homes at the same time can overstate what the observed gap means.","A property may use the 02301 mailing label without matching every boundary assumption of the Census statistical area, because a ZCTA is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","Treating the bedroom ladder as observed market rent would create false precision; its values are modelled from blended ZIP ZORI and the relative spacing of HUD standards.","Aggregate burden and vacancy can describe renter households and housing status across the area, but they cannot prove affordability, qualification, availability or lease quality for a particular unit."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI for the ZIP market: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not an average of every current listing, a measured two-bedroom rent, an occupied-household median, or a promise that a particular property should lease at that amount.","q":"What does the $2,334 ZIP rent measure?"},{"a":"The measures have different populations, timing and definitions. ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Zillow tracks observed asking rents for the current market and blends rental types. The packet supports the difference but does not identify a single cause.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The estimates scale ZIP ZORI according to the local HUD bedroom ladder, preserving HUD’s relative differences across unit sizes while anchoring the two-bedroom estimate to ZORI. They are modelled monthly estimates, not measured rents. HUD’s source values remain administrative standards rather than landlord asking-rent observations.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates produced?"},{"a":"Verify the exact address and delivery ZIP, bedroom count, advertised rent, mandatory recurring fees, deposits, included utilities, lease duration and concessions. Determine whether a concession changes effective monthly rent, then compare the all-in quote with the relevant modelled estimate while keeping ACS, Zillow and HUD definitions separate.","q":"What should be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2169.59386},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2235.234577},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2304.919919},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2313.798218},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2288.692514},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2311.552134},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2322.851961},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2347.23377},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2353.484492},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2367.489627},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2384.156246},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2431.222298},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2437.246585},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2409.745872},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2371.938901},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2363.493369},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2370.750695},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2334.365079}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":18,"firstPeriod":"2025-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":18,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2311.552134,"endRent":2334.365079,"change":0.009869102523992757,"cagr":0.009869102523992757}},"maxDrawdown":-0.042212185928655166,"annualizedVolatility":null,"consecutiveReturnCount":17}}