For the five-digit 02860 market, the decision question is whether a current ZIP asking-rent benchmark fits a household budget while retaining source distinctions. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,844 per month, following a 4.6% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a specified available home. The label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched Census area’s estimated population is 47,818, which establishes the survey geography’s scale but does not establish conditions for an individual dwelling. It should be read as an index benchmark even where individual advertised rents differ.
Budget pressure is visible in separate ACS measures. In the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median household income is $61,539. Applying the 30% screen mechanically to the $1,844 monthly ZORI produces $73,760 of annual income and makes the index equal to 36.0% of that median income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Renter households account for 59.2% of occupied homes, or 11,589 households. Among the observed renter households used for the ACS burden measure, 5,488, or 47.4%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above the threshold; this describes a survey population and cannot prove the burden on a particular current unit.
Rent levels should not be merged simply because they have dollar units. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,192 for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and reflects reported tenant costs across its survey period. It is not a current asking-rent series. Against that measure, the current ZORI is 54.7% higher, a coverage-and-method difference rather than evidence about any unit’s age, condition, or price change. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,729. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and the ZORI is 6.7% above its two-bedroom standard. These are parallel reference points, not ingredients for a blended local rent.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled, not measured. Starting with the ZIP ZORI and scaling it by the local HUD bedroom ladder yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,406 for a studio, $1,495 for one bedroom, $1,844 for two bedrooms, $2,226 for three bedrooms, and $2,645 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD standards are $1,318, $1,402, $1,729, $2,087, and $2,480 respectively. The ladder supplies relative bedroom proportions; it does not sample ZIP listings by bedroom. Therefore, these are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they do not identify utility inclusion, condition, lease terms, concessions, or the rent of a particular listing.
Inventory adds useful restraint to rental interpretation. The ACS ZCTA count shows 21,185 housing units, with 19,575 occupied and 1,610 vacant, for a 7.6% vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 197 are classified for rent, while 7 are for sale and 130 are seasonal; these are vacancy-status categories, not verified current rental listings. The provided components do not explain every vacant unit, and no unit availability or negotiating leverage follows from the aggregate rate. They also do not identify tenure or size for each vacant dwelling. The stock count includes 5,749 single-family units and 2,764 large-multifamily units. Those structural counts describe the ZCTA’s housing mix but do not allocate units to renters, bedrooms, or advertised prices.
Comparative context places the ZIP index below broader rent benchmarks without turning them into local substitutes: the Pawtucket city context rent is $1,872, the Providence County context rent is $2,110, and the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context rent is $2,172. Each value has a different geographic scope from the ZIP and should remain context only. The packet’s city and county median gross-rent context also lies above the matched ZCTA median gross rent, while the metro figure is simply a wider geographic context. They cannot measure variation among properties inside the ZIP. None supplies a property-level comparable, explains the ZIP movement, or changes the separate ACS and HUD interpretations.
Several limits keep the report from answering a property-specific rent question. ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied households, and HUD is an administrative standard; their dates, populations, and cost definitions do not align. ACS estimates also carry survey uncertainty, while the matched ZCTA boundary is statistical rather than a USPS delivery boundary. A property review should verify the live advertised rent, exact bedroom count, lease length, availability date, concessions, included and separately billed utilities, deposits and recurring fees, parking or pet charges, condition, and the listing’s actual geographic eligibility. Those checks determine the terms of a particular offer; this report does not.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI for 02860 is $1,844, after 4.6% year-over-year growth. It is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It provides a current benchmark, but it does not state a particular home’s bedroom count, condition, included utilities, lease terms, or availability. The ZIP label is matched to a Census ZCTA, which is statistical rather than identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Current benchmark is asking rent, not a unit quote"},{"body":"Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled estimates of $1,406 for studios, $1,495 for one-bedroom homes, $1,844 for two-bedroom homes, $2,226 for three-bedroom homes, and $2,645 for four-bedroom homes. The figures carry HUD proportions into the ZIP index. They are not measured bedroom rents, listing medians, or evidence that a particular size is currently available.","title":"Bedroom figures are ladder-scaled"},{"body":"At a 30% arithmetic screen, annualized ZIP ZORI implies $73,760 in income, versus a $61,539 ACS median household income across all ZCTA households. This is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden result of 5,488 renter households, or 47.4%, records gross-rent burden in the survey population. It does not determine whether the current asking-rent index is burdensome to a specific household or property.","title":"Income screen and observed burden answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS records 1,610 vacant units, but only 197 are classified for rent; vacancy status does not confirm a live comparable listing. The Pawtucket city context rent is $1,872, the Providence County context rent is $2,110, and the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context rent is $2,172. These wider geographies help frame the ZIP benchmark, yet none replaces a property-level comparable or establishes availability.","title":"Vacancy and broader rents are contextual boundaries"}],"risks":["Source-definition risk: treating the $1,844 ZORI, $1,192 ACS median gross rent, and HUD two-bedroom standard as interchangeable would mix current asking observations, multi-year occupied-home survey responses including selected utilities, and an administrative standard.","Model risk: ladder-scaled bedroom figures retain HUD proportions, but they do not directly observe bedroom-specific ZIP listings. Actual asking rents may differ with unit characteristics, utilities, lease terms, and timing.","Survey and geography risk: ACS estimates describe a ZCTA survey population and have sampling uncertainty, while the statistical ZCTA does not duplicate USPS delivery geography. That boundary distinction can matter when a specific address is evaluated.","Vacancy classification risk: the aggregate vacancy rate and units classified for rent cannot confirm that any listed property is vacant, offered on comparable terms, or available when searched."],"qa":[{"a":"It uses 02860 as both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA. The ZCTA supports ACS five-year estimates, while Zillow’s value belongs to its ZIP market series. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP, so an individual address and delivery geography require property-level confirmation.","q":"What geographic area does this report cover?"},{"a":"They answer different questions. ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a five-year median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD supplies a bedroom-specific administrative FMR/SAFMR standard. Differing timing, coverage, and definitions mean their dollar values should remain separate.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent figures?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the single ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The approach preserves relative HUD bedroom standards, but it does not survey asking listings, measure actual bedroom rents, or control for particular unit terms.","q":"Are the bedroom values observed rents?"},{"a":"The $73,760 figure is the annual income produced when the annualized $1,844 monthly ZORI is divided by the 30% screen. It is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share records observed gross-rent burden among surveyed renter households, not a result for a specific lease, applicant, or available property.","q":"How should the required-income and burden figures be read?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1265.439245},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1296.834285},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1303.628103},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1311.238577},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1311.234747},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1336.143588},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1361.255628},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1379.335908},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1395.786437},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1378.56583},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1413.306524},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1427.479337},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1464.166879},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1463.260219},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1481.49121},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1503.803274},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1508.955417},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1507.336123},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1494.707977},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1503.292125},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1513.593804},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1548.435695},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1557.115757},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1570.948915},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1568.205197},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1588.915484},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1575.881563},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1580.429835},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1587.401271},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1606.320027},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1642.420353},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1651.170287},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1660.412864},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1650.678439},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1649.446325},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1660.659702},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1674.953841},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1670.996181},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1687.308129},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1693.352872},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1722.214493},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1729.389456},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1735.170987},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1741.798206},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1750.706729},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1759.266581},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1761.792669},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1764.46562},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1768.561794},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1782.029761},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1793.333401},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1802.322079},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1796.000659},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1800.909543},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1800.514307},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1809.111848},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1815.476061},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1827.292249},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1843.577017}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":59,"firstPeriod":"2021-08-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":59,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1761.792669,"endRent":1843.577017,"change":0.046421096783437754,"cagr":0.046421096783437754},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1557.115757,"endRent":1843.577017,"change":0.18396914854416946,"cagr":0.05790530577595043}},"maxDrawdown":-0.012337565793383631,"annualizedVolatility":0.02866631363358026,"consecutiveReturnCount":58}}