Regional price context is the first tension in this market. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $1,684 in June 2026. The City of Woonsocket context rent was $1,684.15, the Providence County context rent was $2,110, and the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context rent was $2,172. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-scope context rather than substitutes for the ZIP index. The ZIP therefore sits near its city context yet below the county and metro contexts, a useful location of the current asking-rent signal without asserting that properties or renter experiences are interchangeable across those geographies.
The five-digit label 02895 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 5-year survey, median gross rent for occupied renter homes was $1,161 and includes selected utilities. That survey measure describes occupied renter households over its multiyear collection period, whereas ZORI captures a current typical asking-rent index. The two measures consequently answer different questions: the ACS figure is not a current list-price reading, and the ZIP asking index is not a survey median of leased homes. Their gap should be read as a source-universe difference, not as a direct measure of any unit’s rent change.
Bedroom detail is best treated as a scaling model rather than local observations. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR source provides a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $1,729. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,284 for a studio, $1,366 for one bedroom, $1,684 for two bedrooms, $2,033 for three bedrooms, and $2,415 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and their role is to preserve the local HUD relative-bedroom ladder around the ZIP-wide index. They should not be read as a count of listings, a property valuation, or evidence that an individual dwelling will be advertised at the modelled amount.
The affordability tension appears when the current asking signal is put beside household measures. The arithmetic 30% required-income screen produces $67,360 in annual income, compared with the ACS ZCTA median household income of $61,059; the asking-rent-to-income calculation is 33.1%. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, the ACS burden table reports that 4,944 of 11,067 renter households paid at least that share of income toward gross rent, a 44.7% share. Gross rent’s selected-utility treatment and the survey population matter here. This burden result is a survey-wide condition, not proof that a particular tenant, lease, or unit has the same cost pressure.
Supply-related counts add a second caution, because stock classifications do not describe a current matching apartment. The matched ACS ZCTA reports 19,429 housing units: 17,618 occupied and 1,811 vacant, for a 9.3% general housing vacancy rate. Of occupied units, 11,067 were renter occupied, a 62.8% renter share, and 700 vacant units were classified for rent. Reported stock includes 5,526 single-family units and 1,697 large multifamily units. These survey categories provide scale and tenure mix, but they neither confirm current availability nor establish price, condition, utilities, or suitability for a particular property. The general vacancy rate also should not be equated with an apartment listing rate.
History is positive but cooling rather than a reversal. At the stated endpoint, the exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 4.21% over 1 year, 6.91% over 3 years, and 8.34% over 5 years. The latest direction is still upward, yet its slower pace breaks from the longer-path growth rate, which supports the cooling label without turning it into a forecast. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.50%, maximum drawdown was −1.03%, and history coverage was 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 353 for momentum, 699 for stability, and 126 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The variability and drawdown help calibrate confidence in a current rent snapshot: historical movement exists even when the current index is reported precisely.
Decision use now depends on property-level verification, not on extending an index beyond its scope. For any candidate home, confirm the live advertised asking amount, availability date, bedroom designation, lease term, included utilities, mandatory fees, condition, and whether the stated vacancy is actually available. Check the address’s ZIP market tag and distinguish it from the broader ZCTA survey geography before comparing it with the ZIP index. Review the source date and scope beside every comparison: ZORI for blended asking rent, ACS for surveyed occupied renters and household conditions, and HUD for an administrative bedroom ladder. ACS estimates also carry sampling uncertainty. These steps cannot convert area statistics into a promise about a dwelling, but they identify which terms determine its actual monthly obligation. Which property-specific charges or included utilities would materially change the figure a renter faces?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,684, essentially aligned with the $1,684.15 City of Woonsocket context but below the $2,110 Providence County context and $2,172 Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context. These comparisons position the ZIP within wider geographies only. They do not establish that a specific unit is cheaper, nor do they substitute city, county, or metro indices for the ZIP’s asking-rent signal.","title":"Regional discount, local alignment"},{"body":"ACS supplies a distinct view: its matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year median gross rent concerns occupied renter homes with selected utilities. Zillow ZORI instead is a current ZIP-level, blended asking-rent index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is different again: it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. A numerical comparison across those universes is useful only when their definitions remain visible.","title":"Three rent universes answer different questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates obtained by scaling ZIP ZORI with HUD’s local relative-bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents and should not be used as listing evidence. The required-income screen is an arithmetic translation of the ZIP-wide asking signal, while the ACS burden result describes surveyed renter households. Neither measure qualifies an applicant or proves affordability for an individual lease.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Same-month history shows positive rent growth at shorter and longer horizons, but the latest annualized pace is slower than the longer-period rates. The volatility, drawdown, coverage, and national discovery ranks describe past index behavior. They do not predict future rent changes or supply an investment conclusion. Historical movement means a reader should treat a current ZORI reading as a dated snapshot rather than a guaranteed trajectory.","title":"Cooling means slower growth, not a forecast"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can mask variation by unit size, condition, property type, lease terms, and utilities. It should not be presented as the observed asking price or achievable rent for a particular dwelling.","ACS represents a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Sampling error, collection timing, and geography prevent it from functioning as a live ZIP listing feed.","HUD FMR/SAFMR provides administrative bedroom standards, so the scaled studio-through-four-bedroom amounts may support consistent modelling but cannot validate bedroom-specific asking rents, concessions, tenant-paid utilities, or a unit’s final lease obligation.","Vacancy, tenure, and structure counts are area-level survey classifications. They cannot establish that a vacant unit is currently rentable, comparable to a searched home, in acceptable condition, or offered on terms visible to a renter."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI gives a ZIP-level indication of typical observed asking rent at the stated endpoint and blends rental types. It is useful for comparing the current ZIP signal with similarly scoped Zillow measures. It does not identify a dwelling’s bedroom-specific price, included utilities, condition, lease terms, or whether an advertised home is actually available.","q":"What does the current Zillow ZORI indicate?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom figure is a modelled monthly ZIP estimate created by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies the relative bedroom standard, but it is administrative and not asking rent. The estimates therefore cannot confirm asking prices, transaction terms, or availability for any particular bedroom count.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed local rents?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter households in the matched ZCTA over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The measures can be compared for context, but their difference does not quantify current lease prices or rent change for a specific property.","q":"Why can ACS median gross rent differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The history series measures past same-month index changes through the stated endpoint, along with variability, drawdown, complete coverage, and comparative discovery ranks. A slower recent growth rate describes cooling relative to prior periods, not a decline forecast. Those diagnostics can temper confidence in a single current index reading, but cannot forecast rent, vacancy, or investment outcomes.","q":"How should the historical cooling signal be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1139.835976},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1128.075713},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1131.479866},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1137.29332},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1158.216888},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1178.252809},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1199.679219},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1210.637011},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1218.842134},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1214.458732},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1221.560513},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1239.01236},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1268.430567},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1294.50545},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1312.900508},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1319.906675},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1320.185963},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1325.369694},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1325.768319},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1329.674848},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1331.183859},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1352.546796},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1361.300628},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1365.193069},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1367.101239},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1378.259875},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1394.776764},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1400.893684},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1419.036514},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1427.347797},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1444.598091},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1457.43166},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1484.403137},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1487.220786},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1489.21229},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1484.193132},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1484.586446},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1485.990578},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1490.726342},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1516.322931},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1520.832165},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1537.955697},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1529.883481},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1543.576478},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1546.4161},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1554.413817},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1553.064551},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1577.798847},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1586.781379},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1616.090444},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1622.799777},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1620.492466},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1629.362415},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1632.002071},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1650.700058},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1653.602349},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1658.079643},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1666.211709},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1684.269966},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1684.7416},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1694.374739},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1684.145299}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1616.090444,"endRent":1684.145299,"change":0.04211079599700929,"cagr":0.04211079599700929},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1378.259875,"endRent":1684.145299,"change":0.22193595674400668,"cagr":0.06909463017635664},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1128.075713,"endRent":1684.145299,"change":0.49293640452659937,"cagr":0.08344847254745802}},"maxDrawdown":-0.010317504665250277,"annualizedVolatility":0.025043199802549012,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}