Rent growth and resale pricing point in different directions in ZIP 02903. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index is a typical observed measure blended across rental types, and its exact same-month one-year change is addressed alongside the much firmer resale reading below. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so its survey results should not be read as delivery-route boundaries. That geographic alignment supports comparison, but it does not merge Zillow, Census, HUD, or resale evidence into one rent measure.
The June Zillow reading is $2,527. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not the lease rent of a particular available apartment. The ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA median gross rent is $1,713, with a margin of error of ±$154; that survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow is 47.5% above that survey measure. HUD’s FY2026 local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,729, and Zillow is 46.2% higher, but HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. These source gaps are definitions and timing, not interchangeable rental comps.
Bedroom detail should therefore be treated as a scaling model, not a direct observation. The local HUD ladder scales the ZIP index into modelled monthly estimates of $1,926 for a studio, $2,049 for one bedroom, $2,527 for two bedrooms, $3,050 for three bedrooms, and $3,625 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the procedure carries HUD’s local bedroom step pattern into the Zillow index level. They should not be substituted for unit-specific asking rents, because actual bedroom mix, condition, concessions, and utility treatment can differ from a blended index or an administrative standard.
At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, the current indexed ask requires $101,080 in annual income. The matched ACS ZCTA median household income is $64,476, with a reported margin of error of ±$10,385, making the index-to-median-income arithmetic 47.0%. This is a required-income screen only: it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS occupied-renter survey, 2,106 of 4,510 renter households, or 46.7%, spent the threshold share or more on rent. That burden result characterizes surveyed households; it cannot prove affordability, payment stress, eligibility, or outcome for a particular dwelling or applicant.
Housing-stock evidence puts the affordability screen in a renter-heavy survey setting. The ACS ZCTA reports a 13.2% vacancy rate, with 545 units classified vacant for rent, a renter share of 75.2%, and 4,036 units in large multifamily structures. These are five-year survey estimates of housing and vacancy status, not a real-time inventory of advertised apartments. A vacant-for-rent classification cannot establish that any individual unit is vacant today, marketed at the Zillow index, available on stated terms, or appropriate for a specific household. It also cannot turn the ZCTA-wide burden result into proof about a specific address.
Comparisons beyond the ZIP are deliberately contextual. In Providence city context, the Zillow asking-rent index is $2,293; in Providence County context, it is $2,110; and in Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context, it is $2,172. Each is below the ZIP index, but each describes a wider geographic scope rather than a substitute ZIP rental comp. City, county, and metro renter-share, vacancy, gross-rent, income, and apartment measures remain context in their respective universes. They neither revise the matched ZCTA survey nor explain the ZIP’s rent level, burden, vacancy status, or resale outcome.
Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history shows an upward path that has slowed rather than reversed at the stated endpoint. Exact same-month annualized changes were 2.47% over one year, 4.27% over three years, and 6.03% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms continued growth but breaks from the faster longer path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.31%, maximum drawdown was -3.42%, and recorded coverage was 100%. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 879 for momentum, 2,055 for stability, and 1,373 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. Deceleration plus measured variability means one current index snapshot merits less confidence than corroborated, unit-level current evidence.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is for-sale evidence, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $629,858, up 11.48% year over year; both homes sold and reported inventory were 40, median marketing time was 37 days, and months of supply was 3.0. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.58%, and 38.5% of sales sold above list. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.81%, only a cross-source screening ratio—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or valuation. The resale data confirm firmer recent sale pricing but challenge a simple rental reading because rent growth has decelerated and the income screen is tight. Check the subject’s live asking rent and concessions, included utilities, bedroom count, condition, lease terms, occupancy and marketing history, then compare property-specific closed sales. Does that specific property support each separate comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"The June Zillow ZIP asking-rent index of $2,527 is a blended typical asking-rent measure. It sits 47.5% above the ACS five-year ZCTA median gross rent, which surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is also 46.2% above the local HUD two-bedroom administrative standard. The comparison identifies different measurement universes, not competing current lease quotes.","title":"Rent index exceeds survey and policy measures"},{"body":"Same-month ZIP ZORI growth slowed from a 6.03% five-year annualized rate to 4.27% over three years and 2.47% over one year. Full recorded coverage supports reading the series, while 3.31% annualized monthly-return variability and a -3.42% maximum drawdown show that a one-date index value still carries movement risk. These measurements look backward only.","title":"Longer-run rent growth has decelerated"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen requires $101,080 of annual income for the indexed monthly ask, compared with a $64,476 matched-ZCTA median household income. ACS reports 46.7% of surveyed renter households at or above the threshold. The screen is not an applicant rule, and the burden result cannot demonstrate what any particular renter can pay or whether a particular unit is affordable.","title":"Affordability pressure is broad but not unit-specific"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale series reports a $629,858 median sold price and 11.48% annual increase, while 40 homes sold over the rolling period. Its 4.81% annualized ZORI-to-price figure is a cross-source screen only. Because Redfin observes for-sale transactions and Zillow observes asking rents, neither converts the other into rental comparables, property economics, or a return metric.","title":"Resale evidence is firmer than rent momentum"}],"risks":["A Zillow index blends rental types and observes asking rents, whereas ACS summarizes occupied homes and HUD supplies administrative standards; treating them as interchangeable can distort a unit-level comparison.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical survey geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its margins of error, multi-year timing, and household estimates do not identify a current listing.","Vacancy and rent-burden evidence describe broad survey categories, so neither establishes availability, tenant circumstances, pricing, utility treatment, or payment outcomes for a particular apartment.","Redfin’s rolling resale record describes for-sale transactions only; it cannot supply rental comps, establish property-level operating economics, or validate a listing’s current asking rent."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow reports a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a five-year survey median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD reports an administrative bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR. Their populations, timing, utility treatment, and definitions differ, so the spread is descriptive rather than an error or an appraised unit rent.","q":"Why does Zillow’s asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent and HUD FMR/SAFMR?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are never measured bedroom rents. A specific unit can differ because its condition, unit mix, utilities, concessions, lease structure, and current marketing status are not captured by the scaled ladder.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"The history shows continuing positive same-month growth, but the annualized pace is lower over the most recent year than over the three- and five-year windows. Recorded variability and the historical maximum drawdown show that the index has moved over time. This is backward-looking evidence, so current unit-level confirmation remains more reliable than relying mechanically on one index date.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current Zillow snapshot?"},{"a":"Verify the live advertised asking rent, concessions, lease duration, included utilities, bedroom count, condition, occupancy status, and marketing history. Separately compare property-specific closed sales because Redfin’s resale observations are not rental transactions. These checks keep the Zillow index, ACS household survey, HUD standard, and Redfin resale record in their proper evidence universes.","q":"What should be verified before comparing a specific property with these ZIP figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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