The central tension is that a current $2,386 Zillow asking-rent index sits alongside a much larger resale price level, leaving a 3.11% annualized-rent-to-price screening ratio. The 02906 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That ratio merely divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price across sources. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The contrast requires rental and for-sale evidence to stay in their separate universes rather than being treated as a complete statement of property economics.
Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, at its June 2026 endpoint, is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not an executed-lease series. Its exact same-month changes, annualized, were 3.12% over one year, 4.04% over three years, and 6.19% over five years. The index therefore remains on a longer upward path, yet the latest pace trails both multi-year rates: it confirms positive direction but breaks from the earlier faster path. This is backward-looking measurement, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Coverage is 100%, annualized monthly-return variability is 3.24%, and the maximum drawdown reached -4.88%, placing meaningful limits on confidence in one current snapshot. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum was 747, stability 1,960, and balanced 1,148; lower ranks are higher.
The ACS matched ZCTA five-year survey reports a $1,807 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is a survey measure, not a current asking-rent quotation. Zillow’s current index is 32.0% higher, a difference in time window, universe, and rent concept rather than a direct trend comparison. The local HUD ladder’s $1,729 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; ZORI is 38.0% above it. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that HUD ladder creates modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: $1,819 for a studio, $1,935 for one bedroom, $2,386 for two, $2,880 for three, and $3,422 for four.
Income and burden create a second tension. At the 30% required-income screen, the current monthly index arithmetically corresponds to $95,440 in annual income. Relative to the matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income of $103,050, the asking index is 27.8% of that median. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the household-income median is not a lease quote. In the ACS occupied-renter survey universe, 3,092 of 6,077 renter households—50.9%—reported gross-rent burden at or above the same threshold. That area-wide estimate cannot prove the payment burden, eligibility, or actual rent for any particular tenant or unit.
Area-wide stock places those survey results in context but does not convert them into unit availability. The matched ZCTA contains 13,424 housing units and a 6.8% vacancy rate; 48.5% of occupied homes are renter occupied. The surveyed inventory contains more single-family than large-multifamily units, and 321 units are classified vacant for rent. Vacancy categories and renter shares are ACS area estimates, not evidence that a specific listing is open, habitable, appropriately priced, or suited to a given household. Nor does the burden share identify what any property collects. These boundaries matter when comparing the index, survey, and a live advertisement.
Against broader benchmarks, the ZIP’s Zillow index is above all three supplied rent contexts, but those are wider geographies only. Providence city context has a $2,293 Zillow asking-rent index; Providence County context has a $2,110 Zillow asking-rent index; and Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context has a $2,172 Zillow asking-rent index. The city, county, and metro figures are context rather than ZIP rental comps, and their survey, administrative, and market measures should retain their named scopes. The ZIP’s higher current index therefore should not be read as a claim about a particular city block, property type, renter, or lease. It is simply a cross-geography reference point.
Direct ZIP resale data provide a separate liquidity signal, not rental transaction evidence. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month observation, the median sold price was $919,292, up 7.2% year over year, with 99 homes sold and a 25-day median marketing time. Inventory was 72 homes and months of supply stood at 2.2. The average sale-to-list result was 100.23%, while 44.8% of sold homes closed above list. These are for-sale/resale observations, not rental comps or property-level economics. The resale price increase and constrained sales measures, alongside the slower latest rent pace and burden evidence, challenge any uncomplicated reading of the rent/history/affordability screen.
Timing is a material limit. Zillow’s index and Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation are contemporaneous in June 2026, with the latter ending June 30; the ACS source is a 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, and the HUD benchmark is FY2026. None reports a particular property’s final lease, utilities, concessions, condition, current availability, closing price, or financing terms. A property-level review must identify the advertised bedroom count, ask, utility treatment, lease term, and availability, then distinguish these from the modelled HUD-scaled estimates. For a sale, it must also check whether relevant closed transactions and listing terms are comparable to the property being considered. Does current listing evidence substantiate the index after those distinct checks?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index is $2,386. Exact same-month annualized change was 3.12% at one year, compared with 4.04% at three years and 6.19% at five years. The positive path persists, but current growth is slower than both longer windows. Full history coverage helps, while 3.24% annualized variability and a 4.88% drawdown argue against relying on one snapshot alone.","title":"Asking-rent history remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"The ACS matched ZCTA median gross rent is $1,807, compared with the $2,386 Zillow asking-rent index. ACS covers occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities; Zillow is current and blended across rental types. HUD’s $1,729 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is a separate administrative standard. The modelled bedroom ladder uses HUD proportions, so it is not evidence of measured bedroom-specific rents.","title":"The rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP rolling resale observation recorded a $919,292 median sold price, 99 homes sold, 25 median days on market, 72 homes of inventory, and 2.2 months of supply. The sales universe shows price appreciation and sale-to-list strength, but it does not report rental transactions. The 3.11% annualized rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish property-level economics.","title":"Resale liquidity does not resolve rental economics"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA contains 13,424 housing units, a 6.8% vacancy rate, and a 48.5% renter share, with 321 units classified vacant for rent. Meanwhile, 50.9% of renter households report gross-rent burden at or above 30%. The renter-household estimate has a 90% margin of error of 620, while the burdened count’s margin is 514. These are area-wide ACS estimates, not proof about a particular unit or tenant.","title":"Survey burden and vacancy are area-wide signals"}],"risks":["Zillow’s current reading is an index of typical observed asks, whereas ACS measures occupied renter homes across five years and includes selected utilities; the difference cannot identify a current lease payment.","Modelled studio through four-bedroom amounts inherit the local HUD ladder’s relative proportions. They do not verify bedroom mix, unit condition, utility responsibility, concessions, available inventory, or contracted rents at any address.","The ZCTA’s burden, renter-share, housing-stock, and vacancy figures are area-wide survey estimates with sampling uncertainty. They cannot establish affordability, vacancy, tenant circumstances, or suitability for a particular property.","Redfin’s resale metrics concern closed for-sale activity in a rolling three-month ZIP window. Sales prices and sale-to-list outcomes do not reveal rental transactions, operating costs, financing, or individual-property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow reports a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a matched ZCTA five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Because timing, populations, and rent definitions differ, the $2,386 Zillow index and $1,807 ACS figure answer different questions and should not be merged into one lease-price trend.","q":"Why is Zillow’s current rent figure higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates obtained by scaling the overall Zillow index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The figures organize a relative bedroom ladder; they do not document leases, advertised units, utilities, condition, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom-specific rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation describes for-sale activity: a $919,292 median sold price, 99 homes sold, 25 median days on market, 72 homes of inventory, and 2.2 months of supply. It does not report rental transactions. The 3.11% annualized-rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish property economics.","q":"What does the direct ZIP resale observation show?"},{"a":"Complete Zillow history coverage means the backward-looking series did not have a coverage gap in the reported period, but it does not eliminate index or live-listing uncertainty. Annualized variability, drawdown, decelerating one-year growth, survey timing, and different source universes all limit the precision of a single current reading. Current listing terms and property facts remain unobserved here.","q":"How much confidence should be placed in the current rent snapshot?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1166.812861},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1199.656095},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1214.889251},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1231.603774},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1227.198188},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1224.622985},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1228.348559},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1238.720235},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1254.84842},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1271.443291},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1282.713119},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1282.148264},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1293.129034},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1302.338905},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1298.395067},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1286.812745},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1290.145668},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1292.53045},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1315.515424},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1319.275693},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1334.392163},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1335.128666},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1340.101772},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1380.849862},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1396.503134},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1389.23595},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1367.663945},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1378.309038},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1385.505695},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1388.793473},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1375.435086},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1391.798593},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1404.828753},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1424.181261},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1434.20821},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1416.353031},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1407.045507},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1414.805837},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1437.214076},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1451.615158},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1448.614107},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1457.120385},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1479.222264},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1492.88186},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1489.172972},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1499.57548},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1510.618227},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1504.48102},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1501.523838},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1498.10198},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1506.475241},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1507.735575},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1522.960659},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1532.506795},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1536.549704},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1537.758449},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1553.442155},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1560.405472},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1572.811173},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1607.597442},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1643.512414},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1679.306962},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1621.479841},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1619.445116},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1597.391621},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1608.79611},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1619.208416},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1645.946968},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1647.224309},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1677.987548},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1691.438279},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1695.481064},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1698.341021},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1719.578463},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1748.894864},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1751.714617},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1766.205726},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1767.16751},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1793.701962},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1800.527073},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1828.650649},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1829.594119},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1843.001664},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1865.247024},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1874.513215},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1891.998688},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1899.905352},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1928.198482},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1959.953527},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1987.890653},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1994.545386},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2023.770206},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2036.682989},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2099.535404},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2100.651672},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2106.563521},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2101.679701},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2103.172166},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2115.741896},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2110.825196},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2118.157693},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2118.621038},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2140.09161},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2153.112874},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2173.427618},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2128.246374},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2127.604369},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2147.853951},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2191.284927},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2221.941101},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2221.250702},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2246.520761},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2239.760798},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2255.99762},{"period":"2024-07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