At the center of 02909 is a large source-scope gap rather than a single universal rent. The June 2026 Zillow ZORI for this ZIP-level market is $2,000 monthly. The five-digit label 02909 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Against it, the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA estimate reports median gross rent of $1,366. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The two levels therefore describe distinct universes, timing, and rent concepts, not a measured discount on a currently advertised home.
Applying the ZORI to a 30% income screen produces required annual household income of $80,000. That is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $64,649, making the annualized asking-rent index equivalent to 37.1% of that median. Separately, ACS reports 4,169 of 9,676 renter households, or 43.1%, with gross rent at or above the burden threshold. This burden result is useful evidence about surveyed renter households, but it does not determine what a current applicant pays or can pay. It also cannot be merged mechanically with Zillow ZORI because the ACS measure covers occupied homes and selected utilities rather than a current asking-rent index.
Bedroom sizing is best treated as a model, not as a list search. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder yields modelled estimates of $1,525 for a studio, $1,622 for a one-bedroom, $2,000 for a two-bedroom, $2,414 for a three-bedroom, and $2,869 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve the local HUD size pattern while anchoring their level to the ZIP index. They do not establish an available unit, its exact rent, included utilities, lease conditions, or whether a given property resembles the blended rental mix in ZORI.
The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history shows a decelerating but still positive backward-looking path, which is a meaningful counterweight to reading the latest index in isolation. Exact same-month annualized changes were 2.49% over one year, 4.43% over three years, and 6.72% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path but breaks from its faster longer-period pace; this is a measurement, not a forecast or investment recommendation. The series has 100% coverage. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 3.37% and maximum drawdown is -3.02%, which tempers confidence in a single current ZORI snapshot: it is more defensible as a contemporaneous index reading than as an exact unit quote. Transparent national discovery ranks are 850 for momentum, 2,114 for stability, and 1,395 for balanced performance among history-eligible ZIPs; lower ranks are higher placements, not predictions.
The matched ACS ZCTA reports 18,637 housing units, with 2,553 vacant, for a 13.7% vacancy rate. It also records 9,676 renter-occupied units, representing 60.2% of occupied homes. Those results establish the area-level housing-stock and occupancy frame, but not the quality, configuration, or rent level of a dwelling. A vacant-for-rent classification is an aggregate status rather than proof that a particular home is available, rentable, or priced near the index. Similarly, renter occupancy and the burden share summarize populations; neither determines an individual household's circumstances or a building's lease economics. The stock counts frame the separate rent measures but cannot reconcile their different source definitions.
For wider context only, the Providence city context rent is $2,293, the Providence County context rent is $2,110, and the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA metro context rent is $2,172; each named figure has a wider scope than this ZIP. All three context rent values sit above ZIP ZORI, but they should not overwrite the ZIP signal or be treated as neighborhood evidence. The city, county, and metro are comparison geographies with different resident and rental mixes, and their values do not alter the ACS ZCTA definitions or HUD standards used above. The comparison sharpens the question of how a ZIP-level observed asking-rent index relates to wider measures, rather than resolving the source-scope differences.
Decision use depends on preserving the limits of each source. A property-level comparison can verify the advertised rent and date, bedroom count, included utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, occupancy status, availability, and address geography. It should also distinguish a listed unit from the occupied-home population behind ACS and recognize the survey's stated uncertainty. ZORI's blended mix cannot set the price of one dwelling, HUD cannot establish a market ask, and historical movement cannot establish the next observation. These checks prevent an index, a survey median, an administrative standard, and wider-context values from being collapsed into one unit-level conclusion. Does the actual unit's all-in lease terms and size match the evidence universe used for comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index and the ZCTA gross-rent estimate answer different questions. One tracks observed asking rents across a blended rental mix; the other summarizes occupied renter homes in a survey and includes selected utilities. Their separation is therefore useful as a warning against treating either figure as a unit quote or as a direct measure of a tenant's current payment.","title":"The rent gap is a scope issue before it is a price signal"},{"body":"Bedroom figures are derived by scaling the ZIP index through the local HUD size ladder. They provide an internally consistent size pattern, but do not measure bedroom-specific listings or establish availability. They are most useful when a prospective unit's advertised price, utilities, term, concessions, and size are separately verified at the property level.","title":"Bedroom figures are a scaling framework"},{"body":"The past path remains positive across the reported same-month horizons, while the most recent pace is lower than the longer-horizon pace. Complete series coverage supports confidence that the direction calculation is not based on missing periods. Variability and drawdown still mean the latest index is a time-specific observation, not a stable quote for every property or a forecast.","title":"Recent gains are slower than the longer historical pace"},{"body":"The ZCTA's renter occupancy, vacancy, and burden results describe a substantial aggregate rental population, but they cannot identify the condition, availability, or lease economics of any address. Wider city, county, and metro values provide only context. The strongest use is to keep location scope, source type, and property facts separate during comparison.","title":"Aggregate housing conditions cannot describe an address"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, not a property listing. Any actual unit may differ because of its size, included utilities, lease term, concessions, condition, and listing date.","ACS figures are survey estimates for occupied renter homes within the matched statistical area, carry stated uncertainty, and include selected utilities in gross rent; they do not represent current advertised inventory.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from an administrative HUD standard and the ZIP index. It must not be interpreted as observed asking rent for a particular bedroom count or building.","History and wider geography comparisons are backward-looking or contextual aggregates. They can frame uncertainty and relative scope, but cannot establish future rent, vacancy, tenant burden, or availability for a specific address."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI summarizes a typical observed asking-rent index across a blended rental mix at ZIP scope. ACS summarizes survey responses from occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Because timing, sampled population, and rent definition differ, the figures should be read side by side, not equated.","q":"Why do Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"The size ladder begins with ZIP ZORI and uses the local HUD FMR/SAFMR relationship across bedroom sizes to scale that index. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent evidence. Consequently, each result is a modelled estimate that helps organize size comparisons but does not observe listing prices, unit availability, or lease terms.","q":"What does the bedroom ladder represent?"},{"a":"The required-income figure applies the stated rent index to a simple share-of-income calculation. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden statistic separately reports the share of surveyed renter households whose gross rent meets the threshold; it does not say whether a particular household can rent a particular unit.","q":"Does the income screen determine whether someone qualifies for a unit?"},{"a":"An address-level comparison requires establishing whether the address is within the intended geography and whether the comparison is to a listed unit or an occupied-home survey result. Relevant checks include current asking rent, bedroom count, utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, availability, and condition. Historical movement is past index behavior, while city, county, and metro figures remain wider context only.","q":"What property-level facts remain necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":870.352903},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":870.401979},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":894.921504},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":928.651028},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":957.183722},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":974.007392},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":975.517296},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":946.096964},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":966.360784},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":974.484976},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1003.011223},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":994.110502},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1015.870677},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1022.120711},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1032.050939},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1040.073483},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1040.565957},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1040.674373},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1037.181084},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1055.138299},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1064.305563},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1053.803666},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1051.688046},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1063.200112},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1090.813301},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1114.605819},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1100.923124},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1092.351954},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1084.58429},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1092.352443},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1111.780401},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1126.321032},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1135.746238},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1134.382168},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1139.056896},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1139.056421},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1140.500778},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1148.764866},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1160.095293},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1163.39665},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1168.784251},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1169.515594},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1179.158519},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1188.836532},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1187.945607},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1208.703693},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1216.321087},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1228.793274},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1225.114998},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1220.715536},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1231.580397},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1246.270789},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1260.822783},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1271.005579},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1268.805572},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1265.25815},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1254.429527},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1268.325948},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1274.452268},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1285.591523},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1295.547085},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1301.666356},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1334.6136},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1334.106315},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1365.836119},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1360.863829},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1376.782576},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1381.301109},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1386.027128},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1399.80312},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1425.372039},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1444.455143},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1461.53302},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1476.337897},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1484.199337},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1510.96129},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1508.131956},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1527.720249},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1542.040405},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1569.339049},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1595.467174},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1593.855466},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1589.301014},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1616.805031},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1634.563734},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1667.697884},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1657.477811},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1679.22006},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1700.331499},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1729.605364},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1725.335272},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1732.25339},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1729.95958},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1759.33459},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1761.987242},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1755.923026},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1766.099022},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1772.112545},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1800.882993},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1797.479103},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1818.967792},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1826.902323},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1841.780654},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1840.398211},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1852.872433},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1855.667002},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1866.418384},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1867.996092},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1873.324216},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1885.660952},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1890.228426},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1877.559428},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1876.079961},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1881.255357},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1919.05782},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1919.235345},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1923.944315},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1923.751889},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1945.039591},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1951.083895},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1957.812414},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1957.083072},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1960.177129},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1984.652097},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1988.741774},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1991.231314},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1971.409934},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1985.947441},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1991.535058},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1999.108658},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1991.176313},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1999.745726}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":132,"firstPeriod":"2015-07-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":132,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1951.083895,"endRent":1999.745726,"change":0.024940921876657862,"cagr":0.024940921876657862},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1755.923026,"endRent":1999.745726,"change":0.1388572826881993,"cagr":0.044294765482705944},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1444.455143,"endRent":1999.745726,"change":0.3844290947289044,"cagr":0.06722046221748679}},"maxDrawdown":-0.030158698488109703,"annualizedVolatility":0.03369598979267243,"consecutiveReturnCount":131}}