At the decision point for 03103, the distinctive question is whether a current asking-rent signal of $2,019 should be read as a market price, an affordability input, or a proxy for the rent of a particular home. Zillow reports a ZIP-level ZORI for June 2026 that is up 2.31% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it describes asking conditions rather than a guaranteed price for any specific unit. Here, 03103 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area used for Census reporting, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The decision-useful starting point is therefore a current market signal requiring address-level checks, not a promise about an address.
That current signal is materially higher than the Census benchmark, but the comparison is not like-for-like. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent for the matched ZCTA is $1,436; it covers occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Zillow’s $2,019 is 1.406x the ACS figure, or 40.6% higher, but that gap does not make the ACS measure a current asking quote. HUD FY2026 supplies a different frame: its FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $2,127, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The Zillow figure is $108 below that standard, or 94.9% of it. The packet identifies HUD as a ZIP SAFMR or county-derived ladder, so these figures should remain three labeled evidence universes.
The bedroom ladder adds structure, but not bedroom-level observation. The ZIP modelled monthly estimates are $1,393 for a studio, $1,588 for a one-bedroom, the ZORI anchor for a two-bedroom, $2,679 for a three-bedroom, and $2,849 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder; they are never measured bedroom rents. The corresponding HUD monthly standards are $1,467 and $1,673 for the smaller categories, followed by the previously stated two-bedroom standard, $2,822 for the three-bedroom, and $3,001 for the four-bedroom. The modelled series and HUD series remain distinct: the former is a ZIP-specific scaling output, while the latter is an administrative standard. A listing can differ because neither ladder supplies the unit’s exact features, fees, utilities, or lease terms.
Affordability pressure is visible in both an arithmetic screen and an observed renter-household statistic, but they answer different questions. The matched ZCTA median household income is $73,540, while the asking-rent screen produces required annual income of $80,760 under the 30% rule applied to the current ZORI. The packet’s asking-rent-to-income ratio is 32.9%. Renters occupy 50.7% of occupied housing units. Among 7,714 renter-occupied households, 3,926 are recorded at or above that burden threshold, or 50.9%. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule; the burden result is an ACS area observation, not proof about any particular unit or household. ACS margins of error also matter when reading these estimates.
The housing-stock signal is an aggregate vacancy measure with no reported seasonal vacancies. The matched ZCTA has 16,073 housing units, of which 15,217 are occupied and 856 are vacant, producing a 5.3% vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 345 are for rent and 32 are for sale; the packet reports no seasonal vacancies. The structure inventory lists 6,830 single-family units and 1,501 large multifamily units. These counts show that rental availability is only one component of the stock, while the structure labels do not reveal unit condition, price, concessions, utility treatment, or eligibility. Aggregate vacancy therefore cannot establish that a particular home is open or attainable.
Broader context does not erase the ZIP-specific tension. Manchester city context reports rent of $2,058 and a 51.3% renter share; Hillsborough County context reports $2,156 and a 32.6% renter share; Manchester-Nashua, NH metro context matches the county rent and reports a 25.0% rent-to-income ratio. These city, county, and metro values are wider context only and are not substitutes for the ZIP ZORI, matched-ZCTA ACS measures, or HUD ladder. The city comparison suggests the ZIP asking signal is somewhat lower than the city context, while the county and metro rent context is higher; those comparisons remain scope-sensitive rather than explanatory.
Use the report as a triage of evidence, not as a substitute for a listing file. Zillow’s blended asking index can differ from a live advertisement because of timing, rental-type mix, and the specific unit; the ACS gross-rent measure includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes; HUD supplies a bedroom-specific administrative standard. At property level, verify the exact address and geography, advertised base rent, mandatory fees, included utilities, concessions, lease term, bedroom count, condition, availability date, and any stated qualification terms. Ask whether the quoted amount is still available and what total recurring cost applies. Keep vacancy and burden as area context, and treat the required-income result as arithmetic rather than advice or a qualification decision.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI for ZIP 03103 is $2,019 and rose 2.31% year over year. It is a blended observed asking-rent index, not a unit quote. Its 1.406x relationship to ACS median gross rent shows a large cross-universe gap, while its 94.9% relationship to the HUD two-bedroom standard shows why neither comparison should be treated as a single true rent.","title":"Current asking signal"},{"body":"The ZIP’s $73,540 median household income is below the $80,760 income implied by the 30% arithmetic screen for $2,019 asking rent. ACS also reports 3,926 renter households, or 50.9%, at or above the burden threshold. These are area-level indicators with survey uncertainty and do not determine a particular applicant’s qualification or a specific home’s affordability.","title":"Affordability pressure"},{"body":"03103 contains 16,073 housing units, with 856 vacant and a 5.3% aggregate vacancy rate. Of vacant units, 345 are listed for rent and 32 for sale; the packet reports no seasonal vacancies. The stock includes 6,830 single-family units and 1,501 large multifamily units. These composition and vacancy figures describe the ZCTA aggregate, not the condition, price, or availability of any individual property.","title":"Housing stock and vacancy"},{"body":"The bedroom series should be used as a comparison ladder, not as measured bedroom rents. Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types, and the ZIP bedroom values are modelled by scaling it with the local HUD ladder. HUD figures are administrative FY2026 standards by bedroom, and the packet identifies the ladder as ZIP SAFMR or county-derived; neither source guarantees an advertised unit’s rent.","title":"Context and comparability"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD standards measure different universes; comparing them without labeling asking rent, occupied homes, and administrative standards could create a false precision about affordability.","The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, so property-specific layout, condition, utilities, concessions, fees, and lease terms can produce materially different monthly costs.","Area burden and vacancy statistics are aggregates; they cannot prove that a particular unit is available, affordable, compliant, habitable, or suitable for a particular household.","The matched ZCTA supports Census comparison but is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, while city, county, and metro context can obscure ZIP-level variation."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 Zillow ZORI for ZIP 03103 is $2,019, with a 2.31% year-over-year increase. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market signal rather than a guaranteed quote for a particular available home.","q":"What is the current ZIP rent signal?"},{"a":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,436 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow measures current asking conditions, while ACS summarizes surveyed occupied homes; the 1.406x gap is therefore a difference in timing, coverage, and definition, not evidence that either measure is erroneous.","q":"Why does Zillow differ from ACS and HUD?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom ZIP values are modelled estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FY2026 amounts are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking rents, and the packet allows a ZIP SAFMR or county-derived ladder; verify actual unit pricing directly.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents?"},{"a":"Check the exact address against the matched ZCTA, advertised base rent, mandatory fees, included utilities, concessions, lease term, bedroom count, condition, availability date, and property-level qualification terms. Treat the 30% required-income result, burden, and vacancy data as arithmetic or area context, never as an applicant decision or unit-level proof.","q":"What should be checked before relying on the report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1763.65236},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1745.478365},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1743.973551},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1756.784216},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1790.568657},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1804.606142},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1805.896466},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1794.461243},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1802.756923},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1806.597067},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1804.610665},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1799.283061},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1808.548225},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1816.482795},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1836.977594},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1831.153584},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1844.848912},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1860.397698},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1887.262838},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1915.901349},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1914.193081},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1921.60833},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1885.180136},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1899.147391},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1925.235909},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1984.649736},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1986.011067},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1979.607071},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1963.594608},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1973.615518},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1970.77824},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1972.019402},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1982.986025},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1988.998614},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2030.457029},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2037.871001},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2026.669353},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1994.612585},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1997.522016},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2014.907627},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2025.423155},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2019.27803}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":42,"firstPeriod":"2023-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":42,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1973.615518,"endRent":2019.27803,"change":0.023136477993582538,"cagr":0.023136477993582538},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1804.606142,"endRent":2019.27803,"change":0.1189577509484061,"cagr":0.03817658515312372}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02122725922238089,"annualizedVolatility":0.032478306569456064,"consecutiveReturnCount":41}}