At the June 2026 reading, Zillow's Observed Rent Index for 03820 is $2,267 a month. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease ledger or a bedroom-specific quote. It rose 1.3% from the prior June. The immediate affordability tension is arithmetic: paying that monthly index for a year requires $90,680 of annual income under a 30% screen, close to the ZCTA's $94,897 median household income. This screen is not advice and is neither an applicant qualification rule nor evidence of what any household pays.
The sharpest cross-source gap concerns timing and what is being measured. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,607, a survey estimate for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. It is therefore not an asking-rent observation, even though current ZORI is substantially higher. The fiscal-year 2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder instead lists a $2,311 two-bedroom standard: it is an administrative, bedroom-specific benchmark, not asking rent. For wider context only, the Dover city context is $2,267, the Strafford County context is $2,164, and the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro context is $3,210. These city, county, and metro values are contextual comparisons, not substitutes for ZIP evidence.
Bedroom detail is deliberately modelled rather than observed. The current ZIP ZORI is scaled with the local HUD ladder to create monthly modelled estimates of $1,600 for a studio, $1,727 for one bedroom, $2,267 for two bedrooms, $2,834 for three bedrooms, and $3,002 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; the close alignment of the two-bedroom estimate to the overall ZORI is built into the scaling method, not independent confirmation from rental listings. Similarly, HUD's bedroom standards set the proportional ladder but do not establish a property's contract rent, concessions, utility treatment, or condition. The ladder translates a blended ZIP asking-rent index into a consistent size-based screen while retaining that limitation.
ACS housing composition adds another constraint to interpretation. The ZCTA includes 7,479 single-family units and 2,560 units in larger multifamily structures; that describes stock composition, not available rental supply. Of the stock, 391 units are vacant, a 2.5% vacancy rate. The count classified as vacant for rent is only a component of that aggregate, so neither figure demonstrates availability in a particular building or unit. Among renter households, 48.0% are recorded by ACS as spending at least 30% of income on rent. That burden statistic is survey-based and carries ACS sampling uncertainty; it does not prove that a specific listed home is vacant, affordable, or burdened.
The backward-looking ZORI history says the current positive change is slower than the path that preceded it. Exact same-month annualized changes were 1.3% over 1 year, 3.5% over 3 years, and 6.6% over 5 years. Thus the latest direction does not confirm the faster longer-run pace, although it does not reverse it. Annualized monthly-return variability was 4.0%, and the maximum drawdown was -3.9%, so a single current rent snapshot warrants less confidence than a low-variability series would. Coverage is 100% across the available history. For transparent national discovery, rather than performance context, the momentum, stability, and balanced ranks are 1,354, 2,595, and 2,190, respectively, where a lower rank is higher. These are past measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence presents a different, partly opposing screen. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $602,078 median sold price, up 0.4% year over year, with 109 homes sold and a 34-day median marketing time. Its inventory count is 87 homes and months of supply are 2.4. The average sale-to-list ratio is 100.3%, and 46.3% of sales closed above list. Those are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions, rent comparables, or property operating results. The supply and above-list observations contrast with the softer latest ZORI growth and tight income screen: resale activity appears comparatively firm while the asking-rent index's current growth has slowed.
Cross-source arithmetic makes that tension explicit without turning it into property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 4.5% rent-price screening ratio. It is only a cross-source screen, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or valuation. It also omits expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, utilities, vacancy at a given asset, lease terms, and the mismatch between a blended asking index and a rolling resale median. The result supports neither a purchase conclusion nor a forecast. Its value is diagnostic: it places the current asking-rent snapshot beside resale pricing while the ACS income and burden measures show that affordability cannot be inferred from either one alone.
Application to an individual listing remains limited by aggregation and category mismatch. Relevant property-level checks include the advertised bedroom count, asking rent, concession terms, lease date, utilities included, parking or other recurring charges, occupancy status, physical condition, and whether the unit is actually marketed in the Zillow ZIP geography. For a sale listing, separate records should identify transaction status, list history, property type, and features that make its price comparable to the Redfin resale median. Those documents can be compared with the ACS universe of occupied renter homes and the HUD administrative standard rather than treating any source as a unit-level comp. Which property-level records resolve the gap between the blended ZIP index, the survey median, and the specific listing being evaluated?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index produces an annual-income screen just below the ZCTA median household-income figure. This is only an arithmetic comparison: ZORI is a blended asking-rent measure, and household income is an ACS aggregate for all households. It does not identify renter income, lease terms, utility treatment, or whether an individual applicant would meet a landlord's criteria. The burden result adds aggregate context, not unit-level evidence.","title":"Asking rent is near the aggregate income screen"},{"body":"Current same-month rent growth remains positive, but it is materially slower than the three- and five-year annualized changes. That break from the longer path matters because the history is classified high variability and includes a measured drawdown. Full coverage makes the series complete for the available period, yet volatility means the current index is a less stable snapshot than a reader might assume from the positive one-year reading alone.","title":"Recent rent growth breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"The ACS measure identifies a sizable share of renter households paying a substantial portion of income toward rent, while the income screen places current ZORI close to the ZCTA median household-income level. Neither result is an applicant test. They are aggregate signals with survey uncertainty, and they cannot determine a particular household's income, utility bill, availability, or rent burden.","title":"Affordability signals are aggregate rather than unit-specific"},{"body":"Resale indicators show active ZIP for-sale turnover, limited measured supply, and frequent outcomes at or above list. That observation contrasts with slower latest ZORI growth, but it does not resolve rental affordability or apartment pricing. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation remains a cross-source screening ratio, with no information about property expenses, financing, or the terms of any actual lease.","title":"Resale conditions contrast with slower asking-rent growth"}],"risks":["The present asking-rent index, occupied-home survey median, and HUD benchmark use different universes and timing, so apparent gaps cannot be treated as errors or direct apartment comparables.","Although all scheduled history observations are present, high variability and the recorded drawdown show that month-to-month index movement has not been uniformly stable, limiting confidence in one snapshot.","Redfin observations are resale transactions only; sale prices, marketing time, supply, and list outcomes cannot be used as rental comps or as proof of property-level revenue, vacancy, or costs.","ACS vacancy and burden statistics are ZCTA-wide survey estimates with margins of error, so they cannot confirm availability, affordability, occupancy, or utility obligations at a particular address."],"qa":[{"a":"The ACS figure comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Different population, timing, utility treatment, and measure design mean the two figures are complementary context rather than competing lease quotes.","q":"Why does the ACS rent measure differ from the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The method gives a consistent size-based screen, but it cannot observe a building's actual asking rent, concessions, utilities, condition, lease term, or bedroom-specific leasing activity.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates comparable to measured rents?"},{"a":"They are a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation describing sold prices, marketing, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list conditions in resale transactions. They are not rental transaction evidence and cannot establish apartment rents, operating costs, tenant demand, a property value, or future price and rent movement.","q":"What do the Redfin figures say, and not say, about rentals?"},{"a":"The relevant file items are the advertised rent, bedroom count, utility inclusion, concessions, recurring charges, lease timing, occupancy status, and condition. For a sale, they also include property type, transaction status, list history, and comparable features. These records indicate whether ZIP-level index, survey, HUD, and resale measures apply to the individual property.","q":"What property-level records are most relevant to this ZIP-level evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1589.302381},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1630.790246},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1601.213125},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1566.716813},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1605.425622},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1643.9829},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1682.233696},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1681.911031},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1714.312539},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1730.796376},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1736.778621},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1719.446566},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1705.812208},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1737.952684},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1782.277417},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1861.025721},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1865.217828},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1880.641892},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1886.408731},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1913.859745},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1931.002242},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1925.243493},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1990.648602},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2002.156412},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2039.095526},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2013.059685},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2020.414691},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2021.282723},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2020.481786},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2043.977217},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2065.404771},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2086.612291},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2069.771979},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2072.310646},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2071.133136},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2119.727168},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2128.727016},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2136.613495},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2134.961993},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2132.122328},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2154.159524},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2154.712149},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2159.554249},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2164.392041},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2176.382802},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2192.393156},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2179.869482},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2164.388151},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2176.57266},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2189.907742},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2212.44169},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2223.322696},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2237.625883},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2238.506678},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2244.469459},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2245.557899},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2259.996904},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2266.197974},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2279.792556},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2282.573603},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2276.867311},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2281.397101},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2274.343314},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2276.062775},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2264.636482},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2267.234632}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2238.506678,"endRent":2267.234632,"change":0.012833535089413761,"cagr":0.012833535089413761},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2043.977217,"endRent":2267.234632,"change":0.10922695866819931,"cagr":0.03515838744440147},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1643.9829,"endRent":2267.234632,"change":0.3791108362501825,"cagr":0.06639925789998946}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03928980637280566,"annualizedVolatility":0.04005435174793761,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}