The five-digit label 04102 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $2,401. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a survey median or a lease record. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey instead reports $1,543 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, 55.6% below the asking index. That gap primarily identifies distinct measurement universes and timing, not a unit-level bargain or discrepancy. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; the matched geography therefore should not be read as a delivery-address boundary.
Bedroom detail is more disciplined when it stays explicitly modelled. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,769 for a studio, $1,955 for one bedroom, $2,401 for two bedrooms, $3,215 for three bedrooms, and $3,701 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom value anchors to the ZIP index by construction. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it supplies the relative ladder used in the calculation. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, so they do not confirm any advertised price, executed lease, or available unit of a given size.
Affordability produces the report’s clearest renter-side tension. The mechanical 30% required-income screen, using the current index, equals $96,040 annually, while the ACS median household income is $82,751. Expressed against that income benchmark, the asking index is 34.8%. This screen is arithmetic, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about a household’s actual budget. Separately, ACS estimates 1,754 of 4,004 renter households, or 43.8%, are burdened at the screen threshold or above. That burden is a five-year survey estimate for a group of occupied renter homes; it cannot establish what any particular tenant pays, whether a given household qualifies, or whether a specific vacant home is affordable.
Past rent movement is positive but mixed in intensity. Through June 1, 2026, the direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history shows exact same-month annualized changes of 2.06% over 1 year, 2.81% over 3 years, and 5.10% over 5 years. The recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path but runs at a slower pace than both longer windows. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.22%, maximum drawdown was -2.18%, and data coverage was 98.36%. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,302 for momentum, 1,945 for stability, and 1,713 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks place higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Near-complete coverage improves continuity, but the variability and drawdown mean one current index snapshot deserves measured confidence.
Aggregate stock offers a boundary on how much to infer from the index. The matched ACS ZCTA has 8,746 housing units, and its vacancy rate is 7.2%. The stock tally spans single-family and large-multifamily structures, with occupied homes held by owners and renters. These are area aggregates, not a count of listings meeting a particular rent or bedroom specification. In particular, a vacancy classification does not prove that an individual unit is available, rentable at the index, suitable for a household, or carrying the utility treatment embedded in ACS gross rent. It is therefore not evidence of conditions at any particular address.
Wider rent context brackets rather than replaces the ZIP reading. For wider rent context only, Portland city context is $2,429, Cumberland County context is $2,445, and Portland-South Portland, ME metro context is $2,352. The city and county context values sit above the ZIP index, while the metro context value sits below it. Each figure carries city, county, or metro scope in that sentence and is wider context only; none is a direct ZIP rental comp, a ZCTA survey result, a HUD standard, or a substitute for a property’s advertised terms.
Resale data complicates the renter-side screen without resolving it. The direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation at June-end reports a $599,864 median sold price, up 3.25% year over year, with 69 homes sold and 35 median days on market. It reports inventory of 53 homes, 2.3 months of supply, a 100.91% average sale-to-list ratio, 40.34% sold above list, and 44.5% off market within two weeks. Every one of these is a for-sale observation, not a rental transaction. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.80%, only a cross-source screening ratio and not a property-level return measure. Resale price change exceeds the recent rent change, while the income screen remains above the ACS median, a tension that challenges any single-universe reading.
None of the series turns into property evidence on its own. ZORI does not identify a specific listing, ACS carries survey and ZCTA-boundary limits, HUD does not observe asking rents, and Redfin observes resales rather than rental transactions. Concrete property-level checks are the actual advertised rent, bedroom configuration, included and tenant-paid utilities, fees, lease term, availability, physical condition, and whether a vacancy is truly being offered. For a resale candidate, the relevant checks also include its own listing and sale record rather than applying the ZIP median as a valuation. The evidence-bounded closing question is: do the individual unit’s documented terms align with the index and modelled ladder without treating area averages as proof?
","findings":[{"body":"The June Zillow ZORI for 04102 is $2,401, while the matched ACS ZCTA reports $1,543 median gross rent. Zillow is a blended typical asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities. The 55.6% difference identifies source-universe separation, not an error or an individual unit discount.","title":"Current index and source gap"},{"body":"Using the FY2026 local HUD ladder, the model generates $1,769 for studios, $1,955 for one bedroom, $2,401 for two, $3,215 for three, and $3,701 for four. These are modelled ZIP estimates derived from ZORI’s scale, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent evidence.","title":"Modelled bedroom framework"},{"body":"The mechanical 30% screen converts the current index to $96,040 of required annual income, above the $82,751 ACS median household income. It is arithmetic, not qualification advice. ACS also estimates 43.8% of renter households have burden at or above that threshold, an aggregate survey result that cannot determine the affordability or eligibility of a particular home.","title":"Affordability screen is aggregate"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month resale reading records a $599,864 median sold price, 69 homes sold, 35 median days on market, and 2.3 months of supply. The price rose 3.25% year over year. These are ZIP for-sale observations, not rental comps; the 4.80% annualized-rent-to-price figure is solely a cross-source screen.","title":"Resale signal is separate"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index and ACS gross-rent median differ in timing, population, utility treatment, and geography. Their gap cannot identify the rent, utilities, or affordability of an individual available dwelling.","The bedroom figures are constructed by scaling the ZIP-wide index with the local HUD administrative ladder. They do not verify observed asking rents, lease terms, or availability for a studio or any larger unit.","The historical series is nearly complete but backward-looking; positive changes, return variability, and drawdown document prior index behavior only. They cannot establish future rent direction or timing for a specific property.","The Redfin resale observation records for-sale activity over a rolling period. Sale price, inventory, and sale-to-list signals cannot substitute for rental transactions, operating expenses, or the economics of a particular purchase."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures describe different universes. Zillow’s amount is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types at the ZIP market label, whereas ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical and not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP, so neither figure is a direct substitute for the other.","q":"Why is the current asking-rent index above the ACS rent median?"},{"a":"Each bedroom value is a modelled estimate: the process scales the ZIP ZORI by the relative local HUD ladder. The result is useful for a consistent bedroom-shaped screen, but it is not a measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit asking rent. HUD’s FMR/SAFMR inputs are administrative standards, not evidence of lease offers or signed transactions.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The income figure is produced by annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index and applying a 30% share. It does not test an applicant, set a budget, or state an approval threshold. The ACS burden share reports an estimate for occupied renter households collectively; it does not show what any tenant pays at a given address, nor whether a currently vacant unit is affordable.","q":"What does the required-income screen establish?"},{"a":"Redfin measures direct ZIP for-sale activity in a rolling three-month window, including sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and list-price outcomes. This provides a resale-market comparison point, but not rental transaction evidence. A higher resale price change than the recent asking-rent change is a cross-universe tension, and the annualized rent-to-price calculation remains only a screen rather than property economics.","q":"What does the resale observation add to the rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1872.575691},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1870.299877},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1882.249933},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1883.727486},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1919.303058},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1969.838525},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2020.420115},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2038.522374},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1994.116136},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2012.935728},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2064.507829},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2088.199711},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2094.148707},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2105.044581},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2136.959491},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2179.54401},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2186.372129},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2169.91962},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2148.325338},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2199.828652},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2206.330369},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2222.270134},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2194.604505},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2210.1171},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2254.881637},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2258.227157},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2274.523818},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2225.943695},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2249.105577},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2253.789801},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2271.828216},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2262.757134},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2274.217379},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2285.915411},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2298.607481},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2290.112456},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2284.003612},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2291.347126},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2273.548681},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2286.892751},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2291.592155},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2289.248415},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2308.712711},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2321.3332},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2345.919893},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2354.758124},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2363.521299},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2353.038512},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2352.616073},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2359.700052},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2375.154574},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2393.793146},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2390.719793},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2406.369494},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2400.041901},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2397.898385},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2384.358016},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2379.839916},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2382.583286},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2401.454545}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":60,"firstPeriod":"2021-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":61,"coverageRatio":0.9836065573770492,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2353.038512,"endRent":2401.454545,"change":0.02057596284679941,"cagr":0.02057596284679941},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2210.1171,"endRent":2401.454545,"change":0.08657344219453345,"cagr":0.02806291982247533},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1872.575691,"endRent":2401.454545,"change":0.28243389922335593,"cagr":0.0510103622161342}},"maxDrawdown":-0.021783542121671995,"annualizedVolatility":0.03224747658415746,"consecutiveReturnCount":58}}