The decision question in 05401 is whether a broad current ZIP asking-rent benchmark supplies a useful starting point before examining an actual property. The five-digit label 05401 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, the ZIP Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, is $1,945 per month, up 0.93% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a promised rent, bedroom quote, or measure of terms at a particular address. The reported annual movement applies to the index only and does not establish a price path for a specific listing or identify included utilities, fees, or concessions.
That current index and the Census measure answer different questions. In the matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,665 with a reported $49 margin of error. It describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. ZORI is 16.8% higher than that survey median, a level comparison across different timing and concepts rather than evidence that either series changed by that amount. For FY2026, the HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,140; the ZIP index equals 90.9% of it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and these Zillow, ACS, and HUD universes should not be merged.
Bedroom comparisons rely on a transparent model rather than a bedroom-rent survey. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,361 for a studio, $1,501 for one bedroom, $1,945 for two bedrooms, $2,495 for three bedrooms, and $2,575 for four bedrooms. The local HUD ladder provides the relative bedroom steps, and the HUD two-bedroom standard in the prior comparison is the reference point that aligns the model with the overall ZIP index. The model retains the HUD bedroom relationship while applying the index level. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; they cannot establish actual unit availability, quality, utility treatment, or lease pricing.
Household evidence frames a separate affordability question. The matched ZCTA's ACS median household income is $65,657 and is an all-household measure, not a renter-income estimate. Renter households make up 68.6% of occupied housing. ACS reports 4,906 of 9,085 renter households, or 54.0%, as paying 30% or more of income toward gross rent. That observed burden includes the survey's gross-rent concept and says nothing conclusive about any individual household or unit. Applying the same threshold as simple arithmetic to the current index produces an annual required-income screen of $77,800. The screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; it does not show that a household earns, pays, or qualifies at that amount.
Supply interpretation requires both stock and status, rather than treating all empty homes as near-term rentals. The matched ZCTA contains 13,722 housing units, including 4,175 single-family units and 2,113 units reported as large multifamily. Of all units, 484 are vacant, for a 3.5% vacancy rate. Within the vacant total, 231 are classified for rent and 107 as seasonal; none are classified for sale. These categories describe survey inventory, not a count of homes currently advertised, move-in ready, appropriately sized, or offered on a particular lease. In particular, aggregate vacancy cannot prove availability, pricing, or terms for a specific property.
For wider comparison, the Burlington city context rent is $1,990.03, the Chittenden County county context rent is $2,092, and the Burlington-South Burlington, VT metro context rent is $2,085. The ZIP index is below all three values. These are wider city, county, and metro context values rather than ZIP measures, and they do not replace the ZIP ZORI or alter the matched-ZCTA ACS results. The comparison is useful only as a geographic level check: it does not locate a listing, establish that the same rental mix is represented across geographies, or explain why the context values differ. ZIP, city, county, and metro evidence should remain labeled by its own scope.
Limits are material: ZORI is an index, ACS is a multiyear survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and the bedroom figures are a scaling model. Their differing timing, coverage, rent definitions, and geographic conventions prevent a unit-level conclusion. A property-level review needs the current advertised rent, actual bedroom count and floor plan, whether quoted rent includes any utilities, all recurring and one-time fees, deposit, lease duration, availability date, and stated occupancy or income-documentation requirements. It also needs confirmation that the particular unit is genuinely available rather than an inference from the vacancy total. These checks preserve the report's role as a market screen rather than a representation of a specific unit or household.
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,945 in June 2026, the ZIP ZORI is a broad asking-rent index rather than a unit quote. Its 0.93% annual rise is a change in that index only, not a forecast or explanation. It is most useful as a current market screen that still requires a property's advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, fees, and lease terms.","title":"ZORI is a market screen, not a unit quote"},{"body":"The local HUD ladder produces a consistent modelled ZIP range from $1,361 for a studio to $2,575 for four bedrooms. It is generated by scaling the all-type ZIP index, making it useful for comparing bedroom positions within a common framework. It is not measured evidence of observed asking rents for studios, one-bedroom homes, or larger units.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from the HUD ladder"},{"body":"ACS describes renter households differently from Zillow. The matched ZCTA survey's $1,665 median gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks asking rents. The $77,800 screen at 30% is arithmetic, and the ACS burden finding covers a survey population rather than a particular applicant. These measures frame questions but cannot determine qualification or an actual lease payment.","title":"Affordability evidence uses separate measures"},{"body":"Of 484 vacant units in the matched ZCTA, 231 are classified for rent, but that category is not a live listing count. Seasonal vacancies and other vacant statuses remain part of the total, so the vacancy rate cannot identify a unit that can be leased now. Availability, price, utility treatment, fees, and timing require property-level confirmation.","title":"Vacancy requires property-level confirmation"}],"risks":["Because ZORI is blended across rental types, its ZIP-level value may differ from any advertised unit's rent and cannot establish utilities, fees, concessions, lease duration, or availability.","The ACS matched-ZCTA survey covers occupied renter homes over multiple years and includes selected utilities, so its median and burden measures cannot be treated as contemporaneous asking-rent or applicant data.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards, while the displayed bedroom amounts are scaled model results; neither source documents measured rents for a particular property, floor plan, or condition.","The vacancy total and classifications are aggregate survey statuses. They do not show which homes are advertised, physically ready, affordable to a given household, or available under acceptable lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"It is the June 2026 ZIP-level Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, and represents a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a recorded lease transaction, an ACS median gross-rent result, or a quote for a particular address, bedroom count, utility package, or lease term.","q":"What does the $1,945 figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI is an asking-rent index observed in a different period and blended across rental types. The packet supports a level comparison, but does not establish a cause for the difference or an expected listing price.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"Each displayed bedroom amount applies the ZIP ZORI scale to the local HUD bedroom ladder. That keeps the ladder's relative bedroom steps, but it does not observe leases or listings separately by bedroom. The outputs therefore are modelled ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and cannot establish a particular property's available rent.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates constructed?"},{"a":"Verify the current advertised rent, actual bedroom count, floor plan, included utilities, recurring and one-time fees, deposit, lease length, availability date, and any stated application or income-documentation terms. Confirm that the particular unit is genuinely available. Aggregate ZORI, ACS, HUD, and vacancy evidence cannot substitute for those property-specific facts.","q":"What property-level facts remain necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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