Affordability is the immediate tension in 07102, Newark, NJ. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI—the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types—stood at $2,529 per month. Annualizing that index produces the $101,160 household income used in the 30% required-income screen, versus a $38,864 median household-income estimate in the matched Census area. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; it simply shows how the current asking-rent reference compares with a broad household-income statistic. The numerical gap requires caution because the two measures do not describe the same homes or the same universe.
That distinction is material rather than cosmetic. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched Census ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,265 for occupied renter homes, with selected utilities included; Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index instead. The five-digit label 07102 is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and matches the Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS also records a 54.8% burden share among renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent. Those survey estimates establish area-level conditions, not a particular resident’s costs, a landlord’s quote, or whether any particular unit is affordable or available.
Bedroom detail is a modelling exercise, not a set of measured ZIP rents. The supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder scales the overall ZORI to modelled monthly estimates of $1,835 for a studio, $2,128 for one bedroom, $2,529 for two bedrooms, $3,098 for three bedrooms, and $3,570 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The ladder is from FY2026 HUD standards, which are administrative and bedroom-specific rather than asking rent. It is useful for keeping the bedroom estimates proportional to the local standard, but it cannot substitute for asking-rent observations or establish a lease price.
Viewed backward rather than forward, the ZIP’s current reading is positive but decelerated. Across the covered history with 100% coverage, exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 0.49% over one year, 0.81% over three years, and 3.72% over five years. The latest direction therefore confirms an increase in the index level but breaks from the faster long-run pace. Monthly ZORI returns annualize to 3.25% variability, so one current snapshot deserves moderate rather than absolute confidence. Separately, the maximum observed drawdown reached 3.12%, documenting a prior pullback within the observed path. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,189 for momentum, 1,974 for stability, and 2,460 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
At wider scale, the ZIP index is above the Newark city context of $2,129.92 and the Essex County context of $2,274, but below the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context of $3,573. Those city, county, and metro values are wider context, not substitutes for ZIP rent evidence. The matched ZCTA’s ACS housing profile has 6,683 units, a 6.2% vacancy rate, a 94.0% renter share, and 4,094 large-multifamily units. Its vacant-for-rent category is an area survey count, not proof that a specified building has an open unit or that a quoted unit is obtainable.
For-sale evidence provides a separate and mixed liquidity check. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $679,846 median sold price, down 28.4% year over year, from just 3 homes sold. Median marketing time was 26 days; inventory was 8 homes and months of supply was 7.4. Yet the average sale-to-list ratio was 105.8%, while 66.7% of reported sales closed above list. These are ZIP resale signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The low sale count makes the median-price, pace, supply, and list-price signals useful but fragile: they describe observed resale liquidity, not a broad conclusion about every property.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price gives a 4.46% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a measure of property-level economics or a property valuation. The resale decline and reported supply challenge any simple interpretation that a positive rent index automatically signals firm conditions, particularly alongside the income and burden screen. In the other direction, above-list resale outcomes keep the for-sale picture from being one-sided. Because the rental index, household survey, and sales sample cover different units and timelines, their tension is information to investigate rather than confirmation of a single market verdict.
Important limits remain at property level. ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index; ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes; HUD supplies administrative standards; and Redfin describes closed resale activity. None establishes the rent, utility treatment, condition, lease term, bedroom count, availability date, concessions, or final sale terms for a specific address. A property-level reading should match an actual quote to its included utilities and unit type, confirm current availability and lease terms, inspect dated nearby closed sales rather than listings alone, and verify that the address is in the intended ZIP/ZCTA scope. These checks test the screens without converting area statistics into claims about an individual unit.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $2,529. The arithmetic income amount at the 30% screen is $101,160, while the matched ZCTA median household income is $38,864. This comparison highlights an area-level affordability tension, but it neither determines an applicant’s eligibility nor establishes what a specific renter pays.","title":"Current index versus household screen"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth slowed from 3.72% annualized over five years to 0.49% over one year. Full history coverage supports an exact retrospective comparison, although 3.25% annualized variability and a 3.12% maximum drawdown show that an individual current reading is not immutable. These are measurements of prior index behavior, not forecasts.","title":"History shows slower positive momentum"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR amounts are administrative standards, while ACS median gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and selected utilities. Those distinct universes should not be treated as interchangeable quote data.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale record combines a declining median sold price with sale-to-list outcomes above list, while only 3 homes sold. This is a direct for-sale liquidity observation, not rental transaction evidence. It challenges a single-direction market reading and should remain separate from the ZORI history, income screen, ACS burden figures, and HUD ladder.","title":"Resale signals are mixed and thin"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions: a blended asking-rent index, a five-year occupied-renter survey including selected utilities, and an administrative standard. Treating their dollar levels as direct substitutes can distort comparison.","The reported burden share and median household income are ZCTA-level survey estimates and cannot prove the affordability, payment history, or qualification outcome of an individual tenant or apartment.","Resale liquidity is thin because the direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation contains only 3 sales. A median price decline, inventory measure, and above-list share can move sharply when the sample is small.","Vacant-for-rent and broader vacancy counts describe an area survey, not real-time availability. Property review must confirm unit type, included utilities, lease terms, concessions, address scope, and current quoted rent."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Different timing, samples, and definitions mean the figures answer different questions.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom series is modelled by applying the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder to the overall ZIP ZORI. It apportions a blended asking-rent index across bedroom sizes, so it is useful for a consistent screen but does not observe a studio or a two-bedroom lease at a specified address.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents?"},{"a":"Redfin directly observes a rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale sample, including sold prices, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list results. It does not observe rental transactions. With only 3 reported sales, the values describe limited resale liquidity and should not be converted into rental comparables or property-level economics.","q":"What does the Redfin block measure?"},{"a":"The 30% required-income figure is obtained by annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing by 30%. It is a transparent arithmetic screen, not advice, an underwriting standard, or an applicant qualification test. The ACS burden share is separately an area-level survey statistic and cannot identify the experience of a particular renter or unit.","q":"How should the 30% income screen and burden share be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2033.622331},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2042.670664},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2082.231512},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2106.371037},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2126.660841},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2086.790488},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2106.45858},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2117.709036},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2167.890154},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2178.878969},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2213.697726},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2223.322971},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2248.993759},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2249.616557},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2243.122427},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2259.274786},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2273.580334},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2319.049459},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2346.340823},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2389.302768},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2422.513037},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2459.842678},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2446.869619},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2426.757476},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2402.6554},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2400.810576},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2437.211931},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2441.46977},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2465.962735},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2457.687602},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2468.228407},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2464.988136},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2426.398206},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2408.192137},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2391.170513},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2395.064578},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2395.210761},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2433.446267},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2448.584292},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2469.908608},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2444.819859},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2454.285418},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2439.077002},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2428.820421},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2436.863785},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2456.539714},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2510.689194},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2535.272591},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2554.495806},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2541.39324},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2524.006801},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2489.838896},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2476.149188},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2488.972987},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2516.52506},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2525.359259},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2537.908674},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2532.26263},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2507.99325},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2498.499264},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2495.014634},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2493.649435},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2499.906591},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2521.432898},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2545.975411},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2538.70194},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2528.965507}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2516.52506,"endRent":2528.965507,"change":0.00494350213226169,"cagr":0.00494350213226169},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2468.228407,"endRent":2528.965507,"change":0.024607568662505797,"cagr":0.008136146478807893},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2106.45858,"endRent":2528.965507,"change":0.20057689764780462,"cagr":0.037236990509811774}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03121992023973985,"annualizedVolatility":0.032456633551214496,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}