Rental evidence begins with a cross-market tension: direct resale prices increased more quickly than the latest asking-rent index, while that current index stands above the surveyed occupied-renter median. The five-digit label 07302 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZIP ZORI is $3,848 per month, up 2.6% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a quoted rent for one unit nor a bedroom-specific observation. That distinction sets the evidence boundaries for the comparisons that follow.
Zillow's direct ZIP historical series through its stated June endpoint classifies as stable growth only in the backward-looking sense. Exact same-month annualized change was 2.6% over one year, 2.4% over three years, and 7.1% over five years. Thus the recent positive direction confirms the longer upward path but clearly moderates from the older five-year pace rather than extending it at the same rate. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.5%, maximum drawdown was 10.8%, and history coverage was 99.3%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,221 for momentum, 705 for stability, and 708 for balance, with lower ranks stronger. Good coverage supports continuity, but the variability and drawdown limit the confidence warranted for one current rent snapshot. These measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA answers a different question: it surveys occupied renter homes, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. Its median gross rent is $3,093; the current ZORI is 24.4% higher. That spread compares unlike universes and should not be read as a lease-price error or a particular household's experience. ZCTA median household income is $175,077. Applying the 30% screen mechanically to the current index gives required income of $153,920 and an asking-rent-to-median-income ratio of 26.4%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, the ACS higher-burden category contains 6,175 renter households, or 28.2% of surveyed renters; it does not establish burden for any individual renter or unit.
HUD provides another noninterchangeable benchmark. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR local ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents, of $2,791 for a studio, $3,238 for one bedroom, $3,848 for two bedrooms, $4,713 for three bedrooms, and $5,431 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled value equals the index because it is the scaling anchor; the corresponding HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,616. This difference illustrates a standard-versus-asking-index comparison, not evidence about a particular lease or utility package.
The ACS stock profile describes area composition, not current listings. The ZCTA contains 31,029 housing units, with a 7.1% overall vacancy rate. Renters occupy 76.0% of occupied homes, and units in large multifamily structures account for 20,092 homes, indicating the scale of the renter and multifamily base in this statistical area. The vacancy measure includes categories such as homes recorded for rent, sale, and seasonal use; it neither measures a unit's physical condition nor proves that any particular apartment is available. Likewise, aggregate renter share cannot show the tenure, rent, or turnover of a chosen building. These are survey-based stock measures that should remain separate from the current Zillow asking-rent index.
Wider rent context points in the same direction but has explicitly different scopes from direct ZIP evidence: Jersey City city scope reports $3,182, Hudson County county scope reports $3,072, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro scope reports $3,573. The current ZIP index is above each of those context values, but none is a substitute for a ZIP observation. City, county, and metro aggregates can contain different mixes of rental types and populations, so they do not transform either ZORI or ACS gross rent into a common unit-level figure. The matched ZCTA's income, burden, stock, and vacancy measures likewise should not be generalized to the named city, county, or metro context.
Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, which describes the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. The median sold price was $986,777, up 3.6% year over year; 162 homes sold, median marketing time was 50 days, inventory was 234 homes, and months of supply stood at 4.4. The average sale-to-list ratio was 100.3%, while 29.1% of sales closed above list, so those are resale pricing and transaction signals only. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 4.7% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The faster resale-price change challenges a simple alignment with the latest slower rent growth and affordability screen, while the sale-to-list results confirm that some transactions closed at or above list within this separate universe; marketing time and supply qualify any single-price reading.
The limits are material: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a lagged multiyear survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin observes resales. Concrete property-level checks include the advertised asking amount, actual bedroom count, utility inclusions, concessions, lease duration, availability status, condition, and, when a sale comparison is relevant, the listing and closing status. Those checks prevent the modelled bedroom ladder, a gross-rent survey median, an area vacancy statistic, or a ZIP resale median from being treated as a quote for the same property. The key unresolved question is whether the particular unit's current terms match the relevant source universe, rather than whether one ZIP-wide snapshot appears decisive.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 Zillow ZIP ZORI is $3,848, with a 2.6% same-month increase over one year. That continues a positive direction, but the annualized three-year change of 2.4% is well below the five-year 7.1% pace. The historical record therefore supports stable growth as a description of prior observations, not a forecast.","title":"Current rent remains positive but is slower than the longer history"},{"body":"ACS matched ZCTA median gross rent is $3,093, whereas current ZORI is 24.4% higher. The gap is expected because ACS covers occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. HUD bedroom standards serve only as scaling inputs for the modelled ZIP bedroom estimates, not observed bedroom rents.","title":"Different rent universes prevent a single benchmark"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a renter-heavy housing base: 76.0% of occupied homes are renter occupied, and large multifamily structures account for 20,092 units. Its 7.1% vacancy rate is an area-level ACS measurement spanning multiple vacancy reasons. It cannot verify vacancy, concession availability, or rent at a particular building or apartment.","title":"Renter-heavy stock does not establish unit-level availability"},{"body":"Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP resale series shows a $986,777 median sold price, up 3.6% year over year, with 4.4 months of supply and an average sale-to-list ratio of 100.3%. The resulting 4.7% annualized-rent-to-price screen is only a cross-source comparison. Faster resale-price growth than current rent growth is a tension; all reported sale data remain resale observations, not rental comps.","title":"Resale evidence is separate and exposes a rent-price tension"}],"risks":["The Zillow reading is a blended ZIP-level typical asking-rent index, so it may not match a specific unit's advertised price, incentives, utility treatment, availability date, bedroom layout, condition, or lease terms.","The ACS five-year ZCTA survey covers occupied renter homes over an earlier multiyear window and includes selected utilities, so its median and burden shares cannot validate a current unit quote.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the ZIP index and HUD proportional standards. It does not observe actual studio through four-bedroom asks, utility packages, concessions, or lease execution terms.","Redfin's rolling resale series reports ZIP sales, listing, and marketing signals, not rental transactions. Median sale price and the rent-to-price screen cannot establish a property's operating costs, net economics, or future outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The $3,848 June 2026 value is Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It describes market-level advertised-rent conditions, not a signed lease, an individual listing's current price, or a separately observed rent for a particular bedroom count.","q":"What does the June ZORI number represent?"},{"a":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent comes from the matched Census ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Its survey timing and gross-rent definition differ from the current Zillow asking-rent index, so the figures are contextual complements, not substitutes.","q":"Why is ACS gross rent lower than the current Zillow index?"},{"a":"Each modelled bedroom estimate scales the direct ZIP ZORI using the relative HUD local bedroom ladder. The two-bedroom estimate equals the ZORI anchor, and other sizes move in proportion to HUD standards. Since HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative rather than observed asking rent, these estimates must not be interpreted as measured rents.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"Redfin directly reports rolling ZIP for-sale outcomes, including sold prices, sale activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It does not report rental transactions or property operating results. For a particular property, current listing status, asking terms, bedroom count, utility treatment, and any completed sale status require separate verification.","q":"What can and cannot be inferred from the Redfin resale data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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