Two current ZIP measures create the central tension in 07306. The June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $2,848 per month, up 5.3% from a year earlier. It is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-by-lease sample or a bedroom-specific quote. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. A separate for-sale universe produces the counterpoint: Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $622,359 median sold price, 9.5% below a year earlier. Higher asking rent and a lower resale median are concurrent signals from different data systems, not proof that either one caused the other.
History changes the reading of current ZORI without turning it into a forecast. Exact same-month annualized change was 5.3% over one year, 3.9% over three years, and 6.5% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms a positive longer path; its current pace is faster than the three-year path but below the five-year path. The history has complete coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.1% suggests movements were comparatively contained, so it gives a reader some confidence that a single current index observation fits the recent series rather than standing alone. Separately, the worst peak-to-trough drawdown was 3.9%, a reminder that contained variability did not prevent declines. The transparent national discovery ranks, where lower is higher, were 434 for momentum, 243 for stability, and 67 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale liquidity provides an important challenge to the rent-only reading. Within Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, 90 homes sold, the for-sale inventory was 125 homes, and median marketing time was 55 days. The 4.2 months of supply describes listed for-sale stock relative to its current sales pace; it is a resale liquidity and choice signal, not a rental-vacancy measure. The average sale-to-list result was 98.0%, while 19.3% of sales closed above list. Taken with the declining sale price cited above, these resale signals do not independently confirm the rent increase or historical rent path; instead, they create a cross-source screening tension. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 5.5%. That calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio and excludes property-specific costs, financing, and unit matching; it is not an operating or return metric.
Household affordability looks less favorable once current asking rent is separated from the survey baseline. The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,694 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. That is not a current asking-rent series or the same rental universe as ZORI, which stands 68.1% higher. Applying the 30% required-income screen to the current asking-rent index produces $113,920 annually, 52.0% above the broad ZCTA median household income of $74,953, and an asking-rent-to-income screen of 45.6%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS places 44.2% of renter households at or above that burden threshold. Neither the area burden statistic nor the income screen establishes affordability for a particular resident or advertised unit.
Bedroom guidance needs different handling from either ZORI or ACS. The FY 2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR input is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom value is $2,616. Scaling current ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,066 for a studio, $2,396 for one bedroom, $2,848 for two bedrooms, $3,489 for three bedrooms, and $4,020 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The apparent alignment of the two-bedroom model with ZORI is a result of the scaling construction, not evidence that observed two-bedroom asking rent is exactly that amount. The HUD standard itself should not be treated as an advertised-rent quote.
Survey stock describes the ZCTA’s household and structure mix, rather than a live count of listings. The area contained 24,930 housing units, with renters accounting for 75.8% of occupied homes. Its vacancy rate was 8.0%, and 1,104 units were classified as vacant for rent. The stock also included 8,382 large-multifamily units. Those counts help frame the scale and renter orientation of the statistical area, but they do not identify a current unit’s condition, rent, lease terms, utility treatment, or availability date. In particular, a vacancy classification cannot prove that a specific home is vacant or attainable, and the burden measure cannot prove the cost position of a particular household.
Broader comparisons place the ZIP figure below nearby benchmarks but must retain their stated scope. For wider context only, the Jersey City city-level asking-rent figure was $3,182, the Hudson County county-level asking-rent figure was $3,072, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro-level asking-rent figure was $3,573. Each exceeds the ZIP ZORI, but none is a substitute for direct 07306 rental evidence. The city, county, and metro series aggregate wider sets of homes and households, while the ZIP index, ZCTA survey, HUD standard, and direct ZIP resale observation each answer different questions. Their agreement or disagreement should therefore be treated as context, not as an imputed ZIP-level outcome.
The packet leaves several property-level facts unresolved. An actual rental listing would require verification of advertised asking rent versus effective rent after stated concessions, bedroom count, rental type, included utilities, lease duration, and availability timing. A for-sale comparison would also need its transaction date, property type, size, physical condition, and any building-level fees before it can be compared meaningfully with the resale median. ACS data are a five-year survey of households, HUD values are administrative standards, and ZORI and Redfin summarize different current market universes. The decision-relevant question is which of those unit-specific facts matches the actual property being evaluated, rather than which broad ZIP screen appears most favorable.
","findings":[{"body":"As of June 2026, Zillow ZORI for 07306 was $2,848 and was 5.3% higher than the prior year. Redfin’s separate direct rolling-three-month resale observation showed a $622,359 median sold price, down 9.5%. The measures are not substitutes: one is blended typical asking rent and the other consists of for-sale transactions. Their divergence is a screening tension rather than evidence of cause.","title":"Asking rent and resale pricing diverge"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth was 5.3% over one year, 3.9% over three years, and 6.5% over five years. This confirms a positive backward-looking path, while showing that the recent pace is slower than the five-year rate. Complete coverage and 2.1% annualized monthly variability provide context for current ZORI, but the past 3.9% drawdown means the index has moved downward before.","title":"The rent history is positive but not uniform"},{"body":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $1,694 applies to occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is asking rent. The $2,848 asking index produces a $113,920 required-income screen at 30%, versus $74,953 median household income. This is arithmetic only. The ACS share at or above the threshold was 44.2%, a population statistic rather than an outcome for any listing.","title":"Current asking rent creates a demanding arithmetic screen"},{"body":"HUD’s FY 2026 $2,616 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard underpins the local ladder. Scaling ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,066 for studios, $2,396 for one bedrooms, $2,848 for two bedrooms, $3,489 for three bedrooms, and $4,020 for four bedrooms. They are not measured bedroom rents, and HUD standards are not asking-rent quotes.","title":"The bedroom ladder is administrative scaling"}],"risks":["The ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it cannot establish an available unit’s effective rent, quality, bedroom count, concessions, included utilities, or lease terms.","The ACS five-year estimate draws from occupied renter homes and has a different time frame and utility treatment, so it cannot be treated as a current advertised-rent comp.","The rolling Redfin resale sample describes sales and listings rather than rental transactions; differences in property type, condition, timing, and transaction mix can affect its median.","Survey vacancy and rent-burden figures describe groups and classifications within a statistical area. They cannot prove vacancy, affordability, or concessions for a specific unit or household."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and the types of rentals represented mean the two values are not expected to match.","q":"Why is the ACS rent substantially below current ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking-rent observations. A modelled two-bedroom amount matching the overall ZORI results from the calculation design and does not establish measured two-bedroom market rent.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rental comparables?"},{"a":"It is a direct ZIP resale measure describing listed for-sale inventory relative to the recent pace of sales in Redfin’s rolling-three-month observation. It informs resale-market liquidity and available for-sale choice alongside days on market and sale-to-list signals. It does not measure apartment vacancy, leasing traffic, rental availability, or rent concessions.","q":"How should 4.2 months of supply be read here?"},{"a":"The packet cannot identify a particular unit’s effective rent, concessions, utilities, bedroom count, condition, availability, or lease duration. It also cannot establish a sale property’s size, transaction timing, condition, fees, or financing terms. Those facts are necessary to connect broad ZIP rent, ACS, HUD, and resale indicators to an actual rental listing or sale property.","q":"What property-level facts would the packet still leave unresolved?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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