The five-digit label 07307 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The current ZIP Zillow Observed Rent Index is $2,585 per month, with a 3.18% year-over-year rise. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a signed-lease series. For wider context only, Jersey City city-scope rent is $3,182, Hudson County county-scope rent is $3,072, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro-scope rent is $3,573. The ZIP index is therefore below each broader contextual figure, while its positive latest change describes movement in the ZIP series rather than a projection.
Viewed backward rather than forward, direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history shows gains at each matching date but a slower latest pace. Exact same-month annualized change was 3.18% over one year, 3.64% over three years, and 6.51% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, yet breaks from its faster multi-year pace rather than extending it. Coverage is complete across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.09% means the current index is a useful broad signal rather than a fixed unit quote, because movement around the path has occurred. Separately, the maximum historical drawdown of 4.62% documents a past peak-to-trough reversal. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 807 for momentum, 1,765 for stability, and 1,054 for balanced; lower ranks place higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The apparent rent gap is principally a source-universe issue. In the matched ACS ZCTA five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,780; it represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That benchmark sits 45.2% below ZIP ZORI, but neither source proves an error in the other or prices a particular dwelling. HUD FMR/SAFMR is another distinct universe: it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,616, placing the all-type ZIP ZORI at 98.8% of that benchmark. Comparisons across these sources frame the ZIP screen, but their household coverage, utility treatment, and construction differ.
The bedroom view should be read as a scaling model, not as an observed comp set. By scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, the modelled monthly estimates are $1,875 for a studio, $2,175 for one bedroom, $2,585 for two bedrooms, $3,166 for three bedrooms, and $3,649 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They translate the all-type asking-rent index through the local administrative ladder, so they do not establish what a newly marketed unit, a renewal, or any specific building actually asks. The two-bedroom point aligns with the all-type index because of that scaling method, not because Zillow directly measured a typical two-bedroom rent here.
Income and burden create the more consequential tension. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $83,297. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to the current index produces required annual income of $103,400 and an asking-rent-to-median-income ratio of 37.2%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter sample, 5,232 of 11,315 renter households, or 46.2%, reported rent burdens at or above that threshold. The burden statistic is a five-year survey result for households, not evidence that a current vacancy or a particular renter has that burden. It nonetheless shows why the current asking-rent index cannot be treated as automatically aligned with the reported ZIP-wide income midpoint.
The ACS housing inventory indicates a renter-oriented but not unit-specific base. Of 19,260 housing units in the ZCTA, the reported vacancy rate is 8.8%, and renter-occupied homes account for 64.4% of occupied homes. The survey identifies 558 vacant units for rent. Stock classifications include both single-family units and large multifamily structures, but those labels do not reveal condition, lease terms, or contemporaneous availability. A vacancy category cannot prove that a particular apartment is vacant, affordable, or offered on the terms reflected in ZORI. Nor can the renter share reveal the size, quality, or pricing of individual units. These survey counts give housing context only, while the asking-rent index and property marketing remain separate evidence.
Direct ZIP resale data offer a different tension, not rental transaction evidence. In Redfin's rolling-three-month for-sale observation, the median sold price was $846,059, up 4.13% year over year. There were 89 homes sold, with a median 46 days on market; inventory stood at 158 homes and months of supply at 5.4. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.38%, while 37.97% of homes sold above list. Those are direct resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rent comparables or property economics. The price increase outpaced the ZIP index's latest annual change even as sale outcomes were not uniformly above list, challenging a simple reading that positive rent history alone summarizes market conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.67%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several limits remain before a ZIP-level screen can describe an address. The common label does not eliminate the difference between a Zillow ZIP market and a Census statistical ZCTA, or between either geography and USPS delivery boundaries. ZORI blends rental types; ACS is a retrospective five-year survey; HUD is a standard; and Redfin reports rolling resale observations. None establishes a unit's condition, exact utility inclusion, rent concessions, fees, bedroom count, current availability, or tenant burden. Absent property-level fields include live advertised terms, lease length, utility allocation, physical configuration, and comparable current listings; sale-side fields separately include address-specific listing and transaction details. Which of those unit-specific facts remains consistent with the ZIP-level signals?
","findings":[{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is below each named wider rent context, but that is a geographic comparison within asking-rent indices, not a statement about unit quality or lease terms. The all-type index must remain distinct from ACS gross rent and HUD standards. Its latest positive change is a directional measurement only because the index does not forecast subsequent asking rents.","title":"Current asking rent trails wider context"},{"body":"Same-month history retains a positive result across short, intermediate, and extended horizons, although the latest annual pace is lower than the multi-year rates. Complete historical coverage increases confidence that the comparison is observed rather than a sparse sample. Variability, prior drawdown, and the weaker stability discovery rank still argue against interpreting a single current index print as a fixed price or assured trend.","title":"Recent growth remains positive but is slower"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen exceeds the ZCTA median household-income figure, and almost half of surveyed renter households reported burdens at or above the threshold. This combination is a ZIP-wide affordability tension, not a conclusion about any household, current unit, or applicant. ACS describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, so it cannot substitute for a current advertised-rent file.","title":"Income screen and reported burden create tension"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP resale observation supplies direct for-sale activity, pricing, marketing-time, supply, and sale-to-list evidence. It neither measures rental transactions nor converts the rent-to-price screen into property economics. The recent resale price change was stronger than the current rent-index change, while the sale-to-list signals were mixed. That divergence requires resale and rental evidence to remain separate screens.","title":"Resale activity is a separate screen"}],"risks":["ZCTA boundaries are statistical approximations rather than USPS delivery ZIP boundaries, so a property using the label may not share every address-level condition or postal-service relationship assumed by a reader.","ZORI blends rental types and reports typical observed asking rents, so it may differ from a given unit's asking amount, incentives, utilities, timing, condition, or lease duration.","The ACS gross-rent, income, burden, occupancy, and vacancy figures are survey estimates over a five-year period; they cannot demonstrate current availability, tenant finances, or burden at a specific unit.","HUD standards and Redfin resale metrics serve administrative and for-sale purposes respectively; neither supplies rental comparable evidence, operating costs, financing terms, or net economics for a property."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, household occupancy, and utility treatment differ, so the gap is descriptive rather than a contradiction or a unit-level estimate.","q":"Why does the ACS gross-rent figure sit below the Zillow index?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the all-type ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The model translates one index through that ladder and does not observe a specific building, lease, bedroom configuration, or advertised listing.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for studio through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It divides annualized current ZIP ZORI by the stated 30 percent share of income to show the income level that would mathematically place the index at that share. It is not advice, a tenant budget, a credit standard, a legal test, or an applicant qualification rule. Household expenses, utilities, and actual lease terms remain outside this arithmetic.","q":"What does the 30 percent required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price, combining an asking-rent index with a resale median for cross-source screening. It does not include property-specific rent, expenses, taxes, financing, vacancy, repairs, or transaction details. It cannot be characterized as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"Does the Redfin rent-to-price percentage show a property yield?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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