ZIP 10002 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $4,875 per month, up 9.6% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a transaction series or a measurement of one unit type. For wider context only, the New York City context ZORI is $4,133, the New York County context ZORI is $4,833, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context ZORI is $3,573. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index therefore sits above the city and metro context while remaining close to the county context.
The recent asking-rent direction confirms rather than breaks from the longer backward-looking history. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 9.6% over one year, 5.2% over three years, and 8.1% over five years, making the latest pace stronger than either longer comparison. Still, this is classified as high variability history: 3.9% annualized variability in monthly returns means a single current rent reading merits less confidence than it would in a steadier series. Separately, the maximum observed drawdown was 19.8%, demonstrating that the prior path included meaningful declines. Coverage is 100%; transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 102 for momentum, 2,537 for stability, and 820 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are measurements through the endpoint, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The large gap between current asking rent and survey rent must remain a source-universe distinction, not a conclusion about a typical available apartment. The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $1,229 with a $70 margin of error for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and captures a surveyed occupied-home population. The $4,875 ZORI is about 4.0 times that survey median, but it is an asking-rent index from a different universe. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,616, placing ZORI at 1.86 times that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific program-standard evidence, not asking rent.
The bedroom view is a modelled ladder rather than a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $3,536 for a studio, $4,102 for one bedroom, $4,875 for two bedrooms, $5,971 for three bedrooms, and $6,881 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom figure is the ZORI anchor, while the other values preserve the local HUD bedroom relationships. They can organize a size-sensitive comparison, but they do not show what any listed studio, one-bedroom, or larger home actually asks. Unit condition, lease timing, included utilities, concessions, and building attributes are outside this modelled calculation.
The 30% required-income screen produces $195,000 in annual income to place the current ZORI at 30% of income. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $48,386 with a $4,836 margin of error, another measure with a different population and timing from Zillow’s active asking-rent index. ACS also estimates that 50.2% of surveyed occupied renter homes devote at least 30% of income to rent. This burden measure documents conditions among its survey universe; it does not establish the burden, eligibility, or affordability of a particular available unit at the current asking level.
Housing-stock evidence adds scale but not unit availability. The ACS ZCTA contains 40,696 housing units, including 29,983 units in large multifamily structures. Its vacancy rate is 10.2%, and 1,887 units are classified as vacant for rent. Those counts indicate that renter-oriented and multifamily stock are substantial in the survey geography, yet they cannot verify whether a vacant-for-rent home is currently marketed, habitable, price-comparable, or suitable for a specific household. The vacancy measure is also not proof that any individual listing will offer a concession or match the current ZORI level.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $1,249,718, down 6.6% year over year, with 30 homes sold and a median 77 days on market. Resale inventory stood at 138 homes and months of supply at 14, conditions that contrast with the positive current ZORI change and its longer historical upward measurements. Sale-to-list evidence was also restrained: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.4%, while 13.8% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.7%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or measure of property economics. The resale evidence challenges any simple reading of rent momentum as uniformly tight conditions across both market universes.
Important limits remain at the property level. ZORI cannot identify the exact asking rent, bedroom count, lease term, concessions, fee structure, or utility treatment of a specific listing; ACS cannot update that listing with survey-era occupied-home evidence; and HUD cannot convert its standard into a market asking rent. For a rental comparison, verify the unit’s advertised rent, bedroom count, lease date, included utilities, and concessions against the appropriate modelled ladder only as a reference. For a resale comparison, verify address-level sale status, comparable unit characteristics, list-to-sale records, and marketing time rather than applying ZIP medians mechanically. Which unit-specific evidence would reconcile the current ask with these separate ZIP-level, survey, administrative, and resale measures?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $4,875, with a 9.6% same-month annual increase. That pace exceeds the three-year and five-year annualized changes, confirming a positive longer path. However, high historical variability and a 19.8% maximum drawdown mean the current asking-rent snapshot should be interpreted as an index point within a changing series, not as a stable permanent level.","title":"Asking-rent momentum is positive but historically uneven"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent of $1,229 describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. ZORI measures typical observed asking rent across rental types, while the HUD two-bedroom standard of $2,616 is an administrative bedroom-specific benchmark. The numerical gaps are real, but they cannot be treated as interchangeable rental comparables.","title":"Survey rent, asking rent, and HUD standards answer different questions"},{"body":"Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to the $4,875 ZORI yields required annual income of $195,000. That figure differs sharply from the matched-ZCTA ACS median household income of $48,386, while ACS estimates 50.2% of occupied renter homes are rent burdened at 30% or more. These measures indicate affordability pressure in their separate universes, not qualification outcomes for a particular renter.","title":"The income screen and burden measure expose a measurement tension"},{"body":"The direct Redfin ZIP resale observation shows a $1.25 million median sold price, a 6.6% annual price decline, 14 months of supply, and a 97.4% average sale-to-list ratio. Those for-sale signals contrast with positive ZORI growth. The 4.7% annualized-rent-to-sale-price screen is useful only for cross-source comparison; it does not measure rental property income, costs, or returns.","title":"Resale liquidity does not mirror asking-rent momentum"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent index, ACS occupied-home survey rent, and HUD administrative standards cover different populations, dates, and definitions, so direct gaps between them should not be interpreted as price changes for a single apartment.","The historical ZORI path includes elevated monthly-return variability and a substantial prior drawdown, making a current index reading less reliable as a stand-alone representation of short-term rental conditions.","ACS estimates have survey timing and margins of error, and neither the reported vacancy count nor rent-burden share can prove availability, condition, price, or burden for a particular unit.","Redfin resale figures cover for-sale transactions rather than leases; ZIP-level sale price, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes cannot substitute for address-level rental or property-economic evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"They are not the same evidence universe. ACS measures occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The difference does not show that one source is wrong or that a particular listing should rent at either figure.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent far below the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve relative bedroom relationships from HUD standards, but they are not direct measurements of advertised or signed rents for each bedroom count in ZIP 10002.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures measured ZIP rents?"},{"a":"It is a mathematical result of annualizing the current $4,875 ZORI and dividing by 30%. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, a tenant-screening standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on the specific household, lease terms, utilities, fees, and unit-level asking rent.","q":"What does the $195,000 required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"Use it only as direct ZIP for-sale context. The resale block reports sales prices, selling pace, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes rather than rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price produces a cross-source screening ratio, but it cannot measure cap rate, operating costs, financing, net return, or expected return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP 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