At $5,953 per month, the current ZIP asking-rent signal sits well above the matched area income screen: median household income is $145,987, while multiplying the index by 12 and applying a 30% screen produces $238,120 of required gross household income. That is a 48.9% asking-rent-to-income arithmetic result. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a record of one lease or one building. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic only; it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule.
The backward-looking rent path is positive but not uniformly paced. Exact same-month one-year Zillow rent growth was 7.3%, compared with a three-year annualized change of 6.0% and a five-year annualized change of 8.7%. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, although it trails the five-year pace. History coverage reaches 97.1% across 134 observations and 131 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.7% means a single current rent snapshot deserves measured confidence rather than absolute precision, while the 16.4% maximum drawdown documents a meaningful prior decline. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 93 for momentum, 985 for stability, and 96 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder is useful for size-based comparison but must not be mistaken for measured bedroom rents. Modelled ZIP estimates scale the current Zillow ZORI with the local HUD ladder: $4,318 for a studio, $5,009 for one bedroom, $5,953 for two bedrooms, $7,292 for three bedrooms, and $8,402 for four bedrooms. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $2,616. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its relationship to ZORI creates modelled estimates, not evidence that listed or leased units command those exact bedroom rents.
The Census match is a ZCTA, which is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In that matched Census ZCTA five-year survey, the housing base contains 34,845 units, of which 7,043 are classified as vacant, for a 20.2% vacancy rate. The survey counts 17,822 renter-occupied homes, and 24,878 units are classified as large multifamily stock. Those stock and vacancy figures describe the survey area rather than live listing availability. In particular, vacancy classifications do not identify an advertised apartment, establish its condition, or prove that a specific unit can be rented.
Wider geographies provide context, not substitutes for the ZIP reading: the City of New York context asking-rent value is $4,133, New York County context is $4,833, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context is $3,573. Each is below the ZIP-level asking-rent index, reinforcing that the ZIP’s current index is elevated relative to those named broader scopes. Contextual vacancy also differs, at 9.4% for the city and 15.7% for the county, versus the ZIP-area survey rate. City, county, and metro values should remain in their respective geographies rather than being treated as direct ZIP rental comparables.
Redfin supplies a separate for-sale lens through a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $1,879,575, up 25.3% year over year, with 139 homes sold and a median 76 days on market. Redfin reported 315 homes of inventory and 6.9 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals also belong solely to this resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 99.37%, and 12.6% of sales closed above list. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price yields a 3.80% cross-source screening ratio only. The sharp sold-price increase may align with the positive rent history, but the marketing time, supply level, and average sale below list challenge any simplistic reading of uniformly rapid resale liquidity.
The ACS median gross rent is $3,050 and includes selected utilities in a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, making it a different evidence universe from Zillow’s current asking-rent index. The current index is 95% higher than that survey median. Within the ACS renter population, 7,583 of 17,822 households reported paying 30% or more of income toward rent, a 42.5% burden share. That group-level burden measure does not show the finances of a particular household, and it does not prove that an individual listed unit is affordable or unaffordable. Its main value here is to frame the difference between the ZIP’s current asking-rent signal and a lagged occupied-home survey benchmark.
Several limits remain material before any property-level comparison. Zillow’s blended index cannot establish a unit’s effective rent after concessions, and the modelled bedroom ladder cannot confirm a unit’s legal bedroom count, layout, or condition. A concrete check would reconcile the dated asking price, advertised bedroom configuration, lease term, concession treatment, and separately charged utilities against the relevant comparison. For resale, Redfin’s ZIP aggregate should be separated from individual sale records, listing chronology, property condition, and transaction-specific costs. What remains unresolved is whether a particular available home matches the index, survey, HUD standard, and resale signals that each describe different populations and purposes.
","findings":[{"body":"The $5,953 ZIP asking-rent index is high relative to the area median household income measure. A 30% arithmetic screen produces $238,120 of required gross household income, compared with $145,987 median household income. This comparison does not assess any applicant or unit; it shows how the current blended asking-rent index compares with an area-level income benchmark.","title":"Current asking rent creates the central arithmetic tension"},{"body":"One-year, three-year, and five-year same-month rent changes are all positive, with the latest pace above the three-year rate but below the five-year rate. However, the series also recorded a 16.4% maximum drawdown. Its low monthly-return variability supports use of the current reading as a reference point, but not as a guarantee against future movement.","title":"Positive rent history comes with a documented prior setback"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA survey reports a substantial large-multifamily housing base and a 20.2% vacancy rate. Those facts describe housing stock and survey classifications, not real-time available apartments. The ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so its renter, vacancy, income, and gross-rent figures should be interpreted as area-level context.","title":"Survey housing structure differs from live rental availability"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show a large year-over-year median sold-price increase, but also 76 median days on market, 6.9 months of supply, and an average sale-to-list ratio below 100%. That combination complicates a simple liquidity narrative. The 3.80% rent-price screening ratio is only a cross-source comparison and does not represent transaction-level economics.","title":"Resale price strength is not a rental transaction signal"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index and the ACS gross-rent survey describe different populations, time frames, and utility treatment, so their gap cannot establish the effective rent of an available apartment.","The history series is backward-looking and includes a meaningful maximum drawdown; positive trailing changes and strong discovery ranks should not be converted into a forecast or investment conclusion.","The ZCTA vacancy rate, renter burden share, and housing-stock counts are survey-area measures that cannot prove availability, affordability, condition, or lease terms for any particular vacant or listed unit.","Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale observation concerns home sales rather than rentals, and aggregate median price, supply, and marketing metrics may not match a specific property’s condition, listing strategy, or closing terms."],"qa":[{"a":"They come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, populations, and rent definitions can produce a substantial difference without demonstrating an error in either measure.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent figure much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a record of current asking rents or completed leases. Actual units can differ because of configuration, condition, lease terms, utility charges, and concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom rents measured rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"The history shows positive one-year, three-year, and five-year changes, but it also contains a prior maximum drawdown. Annualized monthly-return variability is relatively limited, which supports using the current index as a useful reference. It does not remove uncertainty: one current ZIP index cannot establish the asking price, availability, or effective lease terms of a particular home.","q":"What does the rent-history variability say about the current asking-rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. It can flag the relative scale of current asking rent and resale price across two sources, but it is not property-specific operating analysis. It excludes property expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, concessions, and transaction-specific terms.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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