At $4,840, the current ZIP typical asking-rent reading sits beside a substantially lower ACS median gross rent of $2,924, while the asking-rent index rose 5.56% from the same month a year earlier. That contrast is the central measured tension in this market: current asking conditions are elevated relative to the survey record of occupied renter homes, even as the asking-rent trend remains positive. A 30% required-income screen converts the current monthly index into $193,600 of annual income, compared with $128,559 median household income in the matched area; the resulting 45.18% asking-rent-to-income arithmetic signals an aggregate affordability mismatch. It neither prices a particular available home nor determines any applicant’s qualification.
History supports a positive rent direction but not an unbroken smooth path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was 5.56%, the three-year measure was 4.16%, and the five-year measure was 7.58%. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer path’s positive sign, while falling short of the faster five-year pace. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 3.17%, meaning a single current rent snapshot deserves less confidence than a perfectly steady series would warrant. The maximum drawdown was a 15.58% peak-to-trough decline, showing that historical asking-rent setbacks have been meaningful. The series has 100% coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 377 for momentum, 1,870 for stability, and 654 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain much of the gap rather than resolving it. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a record of every signed lease. The 10019 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $3,511 for a studio, $4,072 for one bedroom, $4,840 for two bedrooms, $5,929 for three bedrooms, and $6,831 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Burden data put the income screen in a separate, retrospective household universe. ACS reports 9,155 burdened renter households out of 21,120 occupied renter homes, or 43.35% paying at least 30% of income toward rent. That statistic is a five-year survey estimate with published sampling uncertainty; it does not show the lease terms, utility charges, income, or housing type of any specific renter. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Together, the burden share and current ZORI indicate that affordability should be interpreted as an aggregate pressure signal, not as proof that a particular unit is unaffordable or that any household faces the same expense pattern.
The matched ACS ZCTA also shows a rental-heavy housing stock with a sizable vacancy count. Of 33,109 housing units, 6,427 were vacant, a 19.41% vacancy rate; 2,184 vacant units were classified for rent, while seasonal vacancies were also present. Renters represented 79.15% of occupied homes. Large multifamily structures accounted for 28,082 units, compared with 400 single-family units. These figures describe survey categories across the ZCTA rather than an inventory of currently available, comparable rentals. In particular, a for-rent vacancy classification does not verify location, condition, asking price, bedroom count, concession terms, or immediate availability for a particular home.
Wider benchmarks show that the ZIP’s asking-rent index is elevated against some, but not all, surrounding geographies. New York City, in city scope, had a Zillow context rent of about $4,133; New York County, in county scope, was $4,833; and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro, in metro scope, was $3,573. Those city, county, and metro values are context only, not ZIP substitutes or rental comparables. The ZIP reading is above the city and metro context readings and approximately aligned with the county context reading. Such alignment does not reconcile ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and ZORI because each source measures a different population, rent concept, or geography.
Redfin provides a separate tension from the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. The median sold price was $1,179,733, down 13.1% year over year, with 81 homes sold and median marketing time of 103 days. Resale inventory stood at 371 homes and months of supply at 13.8. Sale-to-list signals remained below full-price conditions: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.29%, and 6.34% of sales closed above list. This is direct ZIP for-sale evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 4.92% cross-source screening ratio only. Rising asking rent alongside a lower sold-price median, lengthy marketing time, and ample supply challenges any simple reading that rent momentum alone describes the whole housing market.
The combined evidence is best read as a set of bounded screens: elevated current asking rent and positive but variable history sit against survey affordability pressure, while the resale record shows slower direct ZIP selling conditions. None of these aggregates establishes the economics or availability of a specific property. A property-level review should verify the actual advertised rent, concessions, lease length, utilities, bedroom configuration, and availability date before comparing it with the modelled ladder. For a resale property, verify the relevant closed sales, listing history, unit type, condition, and the inventory segment being compared. The remaining practical question is whether the specific unit’s current terms resemble these ZIP-level measures or depart from them.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s $4,840 Zillow asking-rent index is materially above the $2,924 ACS median gross rent. This is not a direct apples-to-apples comparison: ZORI captures typical observed asking rents, while ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. Still, the difference identifies a current-versus-incumbent rent tension worth separating from any one listing.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"One-year, three-year, and five-year same-month rent changes were all positive, with the latest one-year pace stronger than the three-year pace but below the five-year pace. The high-variability classification, 3.17% annualized monthly-return variability, and 15.58% maximum drawdown mean the current ZORI reading should be treated as a useful snapshot rather than a stable endpoint.","title":"Positive rent history carries meaningful variability"},{"body":"ACS reports that renters occupy a large share of homes in the matched ZCTA, and large multifamily buildings account for most housing units. The vacancy rate and for-rent vacancy count provide broad stock context, but they cannot establish whether a comparable unit is available now, what it costs, or whether its terms match the ZIP-level asking-rent index.","title":"Survey stock is predominantly renter and multifamily"},{"body":"Direct ZIP Redfin resale data show a lower median sold price year over year, 103 median days on market, 13.8 months of supply, and an average sale price below list. Those for-sale observations contrast with positive asking-rent history. The 4.92% rent-price screen is only an annual-rent-to-sold-price cross-source calculation and does not describe operating economics for a property.","title":"Resale signals challenge a rent-only interpretation"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is a blended typical asking-rent measure across rental types, so it may not match the rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, condition, or concessions offered for a particular available unit.","ACS figures apply to a matched Census ZCTA rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, use a five-year survey period, and include selected utilities in gross rent, limiting direct comparison with current asking rent.","Positive historical rent changes do not eliminate downside uncertainty because the series experienced meaningful drawdown and high variability; the history measures describe prior observations rather than a future path.","Redfin resale evidence covers direct ZIP for-sale transactions over a rolling three-month period, not rentals; lower sale prices, supply, and marketing conditions cannot determine rental availability or property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They therefore differ in timing, population, rent definition, and geographic treatment, so the difference is a market signal rather than a direct pricing discrepancy.","q":"Why does Zillow rent differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The resulting estimates are useful for a consistent screen, but they are not measured asking rents for actual studio, one-bedroom, or larger units.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed bedroom-specific rents?"},{"a":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month changes all show positive backward-looking rent movement. However, annualized monthly-return variability and the maximum drawdown show that the series has not moved evenly. The current index therefore has support from recent history, but its interpretation should allow for prior fluctuations rather than treating the latest value as a durable trend conclusion.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current snapshot?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price. Because it combines an asking-rent index with resale transactions, it is a cross-source screening ratio only. It does not incorporate expenses, financing, taxes, unit characteristics, vacancies, lease terms, or transaction-specific details, and it should not be treated as a property-level economic measure.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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