ZIP 10026’s clearest decision tension is a rising asking-rent index alongside softer resale pricing. At Zillow’s June 2026 endpoint, ZORI stood at $3,844 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease quote or a bedroom-specific measurement. Annualizing it and dividing by the ZIP’s Redfin median sold price produces a 5.68% cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level operating measure. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
That current increase is a backward-looking continuation, but not a uniform historical path. Across direct Zillow ZIP observations, exact same-month annualized change was 7.74% over one year, 5.32% over three years, and 7.49% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path and accelerates against the three-year pace, while remaining below the five-year pace. History coverage is 100%. The annualized monthly-return variability measure is 3.43%, so a single current rent snapshot deserves less confidence as a fixed level than its direction alone suggests. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 13.99%, documenting a material prior peak-to-trough decline. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 123 for momentum, 2,167 for stability, and 599 for balance, where a lower rank is higher. These measurements are backward-looking, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies the counterweight: 23 homes sold at a median sold price of $812,316, 9.09% below a year earlier. Marketing time was 58 days, active listings were 104, reported inventory was 68 homes, and months of supply were 9.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.8%; only 9.1% of sales closed above list. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. Its price decline creates a tension with rent-history acceleration and challenges any simple reading that the ZIP has a similarly strong resale market; the packet does not establish a relationship between the two.
Scope changes the meaning of each rent figure. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,657 among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent measure. The current asking index is 2.32 times that survey median, a gap that should not be treated as a within-unit increase. For wider context only, the City of New York context rent figure is $4,133, the New York County context rent figure is $4,833, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context rent figure is $3,573. Those city, county, and metro values locate the ZIP’s index below the first two and above the metro, but they do not replace ZIP evidence.
Bedroom framing should not turn an index into observed unit quotes. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $2,616. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that local ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,788 for a studio, $3,234 for one bedroom, an amount matching the current index for two bedrooms, $4,709 for three bedrooms, and $5,426 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The ladder supplies relative bedroom scaling only; it does not verify a unit’s bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, or advertised price.
Affordability produces a different, mechanical screen. At 30% of gross income, annualizing the current ZORI requires $153,760 in income. The matched ACS ZCTA median household income is $81,244, so the annualized asking index equals 56.8% of that median. This 30% required-income screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, the ACS renter-household burden result records 4,887 of 11,964 renter households, or 40.8%, reporting rent burdens of at least 30% of income. It is a five-year survey result about occupied renter households, not proof that any particular listed or vacant unit is affordable or burdensome.
Housing stock provides scale, not a live availability count. The ACS ZCTA records 17,853 housing units; the overall vacancy rate is 12.4%, while renters account for 76.5% of occupied homes. Large multifamily structures contain 12,401 units, which is the dominant recorded structure category. These are five-year statistical stock measures rather than an inventory of currently leaseable apartments. Vacancy cannot prove that a particular unit is open, how long it has been open, its asking price, its condition, or its lease terms. The renter share describes the ACS survey population but does not resolve the difference between Zillow asking rents and ACS gross rents.
The evidence should remain compartmentalized when evaluating any property. Zillow’s blended asking-rent index is current but not a unit quote; ACS represents surveyed occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities; HUD establishes an administrative standard; and Redfin records a rolling-three-month ZIP resale sample. Neither the rent/history figures nor the resale figures reveal expenses, unit quality, lease concessions, included utilities, or a property’s actual transaction terms. A property-level review would need the current advertised rent, bedroom count, condition, utility and concession terms, listing availability, and directly comparable recent sales plus their list and close prices. The central unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s documented terms align with these separate rental, survey, administrative, and resale benchmarks.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current $3,844 index rose 7.74% on the exact same-month one-year measure, faster than its 5.32% three-year pace but modestly below its 7.49% five-year pace. The 3.43% annualized variability and 13.99% maximum drawdown argue against treating the current number as fixed. History reports direction and variation, not a forecast.","title":"Rent momentum meets resale weakness"},{"body":"At $1,657, the ACS median gross rent is a survey result for occupied renter homes, while ZORI is a current asking-rent index. The $153,760 30% screen exceeds the $81,244 ACS median household income, and 40.8% of surveyed renter households reported burden at or above that threshold. Both comparisons are descriptive arithmetic and survey evidence, not unit-level qualification tests.","title":"Affordability screen is materially tighter than ACS income"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates, generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with a local HUD ladder. The HUD figure is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not an asking-rent observation. Therefore, the ladder can organize relative size scenarios but cannot verify an apartment’s actual bedroom count, utility terms, condition, availability, or advertised rent.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a median sold price decline even as Zillow’s rent history is positive. The data create a genuine cross-source tension rather than a unified housing-market verdict. Stock and vacancy statistics add broad ACS context, but they do not identify a currently available unit or explain the divergence between resale and asking-rent measurements.","title":"Resale evidence complicates the rent signal"}],"risks":["The current Zillow index blends different rental types and asks, so it can diverge from the price, utility treatment, bedroom mix, condition, and concessions of any available unit.","ACS ZCTA medians and burden measures summarize occupied renter households over a five-year survey period. They are not contemporaneous asking-rent records and cannot establish a particular household’s payment burden.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder yields relative modelled estimates rather than observed bedroom rents. Actual classification, utilities, condition, availability, and advertised terms for a property can differ materially from that scaling.","Redfin resale indicators come from a rolling-three-month for-sale sample, while the price/rent screen joins separate sources. Neither captures expenses, financing, or the economics of a specific property."],"qa":[{"a":"These figures cover different evidence universes. Zillow is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The gap is therefore a source-scope contrast, not evidence that one apartment’s rent rose by that amount.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent much lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The stated amounts are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates do not document actual listings, lease executions, unit conditions, bedroom verification, or utility terms.","q":"Are the studio-through-four-bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"Redfin directly records a rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale sample, including sold price, price change, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list information. Its resale price decline contrasts with the positive rent-history measurements, creating a cross-market tension. It does not show rental transactions, prove causation, or determine the economics of any property.","q":"What does the Redfin resale record add to the rental analysis?"},{"a":"The required-income figure is simply annualized Zillow ZORI divided by the 30% screen; it is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter households. Neither calculation proves affordability, qualification, or burden for a specific available unit.","q":"How should required-income and burden figures be read?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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