At $3,996 in June 2026, ZIP 10028’s Zillow ZORI—a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types—was 7.1% above its same-month level a year earlier. That is a current market index, not a quoted rent for a specified unit. For wider rent context, New York City’s city-scope rent figure is $4,133, New York County’s county-scope rent figure is $4,833, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro-scope rent figure is $3,573. The ZIP therefore sits below the city and county context figures while above the metro context figure, but those wider geographies are comparison context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence.
The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Its ACS five-year survey reports a $2,825 median gross rent among occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities, so it is not the same universe as Zillow’s asking-rent index. The current ZIP asking-rent index is 41.5% above that survey median. ACS also reports $175,121 median household income. Annualizing the current ZORI produces a 30% required-income screen of $159,840, equal to 27.4% of that median income. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household income, unit rent, and included utilities can differ materially.
HUD’s fiscal-year 2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $2,616. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,899 for a studio, $3,362 for one bedroom, $3,996 for two bedrooms, $4,895 for three bedrooms, and $5,640 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and their purpose is to translate the ZIP-wide index into a consistent bedroom ladder. They should not be read as proof that a particular available two-bedroom is advertised at the modelled figure.
Backward-looking Zillow ZIP history through the stated June endpoint shows positive direction across each supplied same-month window: 7.1% annualized over one year, 5.7% over three years, and 9.6% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, although the latest one- and three-year pace is slower than the five-year measurement. Coverage of 98.6% supports a largely continuous historical series. Still, annualized monthly-return variability of 2.95% means individual monthly index movements have not been uniform. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown reached 17.6%, a reminder that a present rent snapshot deserves less confidence as a stable path than the current year-over-year change alone suggests.
The history discovery ranks sharpen that tension without forecasting it. Among history-eligible ZIPs, 10028’s transparent national momentum rank is 125, while its stability rank is 1,541 and its balanced rank is 294; lower ranks are higher. Strong relative momentum therefore coexists with comparatively weaker stability, consistent with the supplied high-variability category. These scores and ranks are retrospective discovery tools based on the observed rent series, not investment recommendations or predictions of future rent changes. The practical reading is that a strong current index level should be checked against the timing and specifications of any actual listing rather than treated as a frictionless market-wide quote.
The ZCTA’s housing composition provides a separate survey view of occupancy. ACS records 30,568 housing units and 16,175 renter-occupied homes, making renters 61.5% of occupied homes; large multifamily structures account for 23,463 units. The reported vacancy rate is 14.0%, and reported vacant stock includes units designated for rent as well as seasonal-use units. That aggregate vacancy measure cannot establish whether a particular unit is available, competitively priced, or suitable. Among renter households, 39.5% report spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. This burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter households, not the payment profile or affordability of a newly marketed apartment.
Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, which is for-sale evidence rather than rental transactions. Median sold price was $1,849,582, up 12.1% year over year, with 118 homes sold and a median 67 days on market. The resale record shows 355 active listings, inventory of 175 homes, and inventory down 9.7% from a year earlier. Its 4.5 months of supply is a resale inventory-to-sales-pace measure, not a rental vacancy rate. Average sale-to-list was 99.9%, while 15.7% of sales closed above list and 10.6% went off market within two weeks. Rising resale prices and falling listed inventory align directionally with recent rent growth, yet annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a 2.59% cross-source screening ratio, creating a clear tension between rent momentum and the much larger resale price denominator. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
The evidence is strongest as a set of bounded screens rather than a unit-level conclusion. Zillow supplies current and historical ZIP asking-rent signals; ACS supplies a ZCTA survey of occupied homes; HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards; and Redfin supplies ZIP resale liquidity. Decision-relevant property-level checks include the exact address and ZIP assignment, actual bedroom count, advertised rent, utility treatment, lease term, listing date, condition, and whether a resale comparison matches the property type being evaluated. The decisive question is whether those unit facts align with the relevant evidence universe, rather than whether any single index, burden share, vacancy figure, or resale statistic can stand in for them.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 10028’s Zillow ZORI is $3,996 and rose 7.1% year over year. The ZIP figure is below the supplied New York City and New York County context rents, but above the metro context rent. Those comparisons frame relative position only because the ZIP index and wider geography figures do not replace direct property-level asking-rent evidence.","title":"Current asking-rent signal is elevated but geographically mixed"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA median gross rent of $2,825 is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s observed asking-rent index. The 30% income screen produces $159,840 from annualized ZORI, but it is only arithmetic. The burden share describes surveyed renters, not a qualification test for a future tenant.","title":"Affordability screens require source discipline"},{"body":"Same-month rent history is positive across the supplied one-, three-, and five-year windows, but the most recent pace trails the five-year annualized figure. High variability, a meaningful historic drawdown, and relatively weak stability ranking mean the current index should be treated as a current benchmark with historical context, not as evidence of a smooth or assured trajectory.","title":"History supports direction while limiting snapshot confidence"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show higher median sold price, reduced inventory, and near-list sale-to-list results. That direction is consistent with recent rent growth, yet it does not convert resale activity into rental evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is a cross-source screen only, and the large sale-price denominator limits what rent momentum alone can indicate.","title":"Resale liquidity is supportive in direction but remains separate"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index rather than a signed lease, a unit-specific quote, or a measured bedroom-rent series, so actual listing rents can differ by property attributes and timing.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes; its gross-rent and burden measures should not be substituted for current asking rents.","The modelled bedroom ladder scales ZIP ZORI using HUD administrative standards. It is useful for consistent screening, but it cannot verify bedroom mix, included utilities, concessions, availability, or the condition of a particular unit.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation describes homes sold and listed for sale, not rental transactions. Median prices, supply, and sale-to-list measures cannot establish rental operations, tenant demand, or unit-level property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Differences can therefore reflect timing, survey design, occupancy status, utility treatment, and rental composition.","q":"Why does Zillow rent differ from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates. They are produced by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking rents, so the resulting ladder should not be interpreted as observed rents for individual bedroom categories.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for studios through four bedrooms?"},{"a":"No. The vacancy rate is an aggregate ACS ZCTA housing measure and includes different vacant classifications, while the rent-burden share concerns surveyed occupied renter households. Neither statistic identifies a currently available apartment, its lease terms, utility costs, household income, physical condition, or the payment burden facing a specific prospective renter.","q":"Do the vacancy rate and rent-burden share show whether a specific apartment is affordable or available?"},{"a":"They should remain separate observations. Redfin reports direct ZIP resale outcomes over a rolling three-month period, including sold-price and listing-liquidity signals. Zillow supplies an asking-rent index. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, yield, net return, expected return, or substitute for property-level revenue and expense data.","q":"How should the Redfin sale data and the ZORI-to-price screen be used together?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD 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