The sharpest measured tension in 10031 is that ZIP asking-rent momentum and ZIP resale pricing point in different directions. Zillow ZORI for June 2026 is $3,128 per month, up 6.8% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation reports a $624,859 median sold price, down 10.7% year over year. Its nine completed sales, 100 median days on market, and 17.3 months of supply describe the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 6.01% cross-source screening ratio only; it joins unlike rent-index and resale-price sources and does not describe an individual property’s economics.
The rent history supports a positive longer path, although it is not a forecast. The one-year same-month annualized ZORI change is 6.8%, above the three-year measure of 5.3% but below the five-year measure of 7.1%. Recent direction therefore confirms sustained rent growth rather than breaking from it, while falling short of the full five-year pace. Monthly rent changes annualize to 2.7% variability, which supports somewhat more confidence in a current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown reached 11.6%, showing that even this broadly rising series has experienced meaningful retreats. The history has 138 observations and 100% coverage. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 157 for momentum, 1,061 for stability, and 138 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher; these are transparent backward-looking discovery tools, not ratings or predictions.
Source scope explains why the current asking-rent index should not be treated as the same thing as household rent data. The five-digit 10031 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,769, with a $86 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and including selected utilities. The ZORI level is therefore 1.77 times that survey median, not a like-for-like increase in a single unit’s rent. For wider context rather than ZIP substitution, City of New York asking-rent context is $4,133, New York County asking-rent context is $4,833, and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro asking-rent context is $3,573.
The bedroom figures are useful as a consistent modelled ladder, not as measured bedroom rents in 10031. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $2,269 for a studio, $2,632 for one bedroom, $3,128 for two bedrooms, $3,832 for three bedrooms, and $4,415 for four bedrooms. The corresponding local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,616, placing the modelled two-bedroom estimate 19.6% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the modelled ladder inherits the blended composition of ZORI. It cannot establish what a particular advertised unit, lease renewal, or building actually commands.
The affordability screen sharpens the difference between current asking rent and the resident survey. Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to annualized ZORI produces required household income of $125,120, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $65,283. Annualized current ZORI equals 57.5% of that median income before accounting for differences in household composition, unit size, utilities, or the timing of the datasets. This is an arithmetic comparison, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, the ACS estimates that 49.6% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That burden figure is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes; it is not proof that any particular renter or available apartment has that payment burden.
The ACS housing profile indicates a renter-dominant stock rather than a predominantly owner-occupied ZIP. Of 24,305 housing units, the renter share is 85.9%. The estimated vacancy rate is 7.4%, and 674 units are classified as vacant for rent. These figures identify broad stock and vacancy conditions across the matched ZCTA survey universe, not a count of units that can be leased immediately at the Zillow index level. The structure data are also concentrated in large multifamily buildings, which is relevant to interpreting a blended asking-rent index but does not establish unit condition, turnover, concessions, lease terms, or bedroom mix for a specific property.
Redfin adds a separate liquidity check to the rent picture. Its direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence shows 53 homes of inventory, down 7.6% from a year earlier, alongside the previously reported nine sales and long marketing time. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.89%, while 22.2% of sold homes closed above list price. Those measures belong solely to the resale universe: they do not create rental comparables or verify a landlord’s asking rent. The resale evidence challenges a simple reading of rent strength because the ZORI gain occurred alongside a lower median sold price and ample months of supply. At the same time, the near-list average shows that the limited set of completed sales was not uniformly transacting at steep discounts to list.
Several limits remain material before applying these ZIP measurements to an address. Zillow reports an index rather than executed lease terms; ACS is a multi-year ZCTA survey of occupied homes; HUD provides administrative standards; and Redfin describes a limited rolling resale sample. None identifies building condition, legal bedroom count, concessions, utilities, fees, lease duration, or a unit’s actual availability. A property-level file therefore needs the current advertised effective rent, included utilities, bedroom layout, listing date, comparable recent listings or leases where available, and the specific property’s sale and listing history. The central check is whether those address-level facts align with the ZIP’s rising asking-rent history while the separate local resale evidence remains slower and more supply-heavy.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI reached $3,128 in June 2026 and increased 6.8% year over year. The three-year same-month annualized change was 5.3%, while the five-year measure was 7.1%. That sequence supports a sustained upward historical path, with the latest pace stronger than the three-year average but below the five-year rate.","title":"Rent growth is positive, but the current pace is not the full story"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates scale the ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled estimates rather than observed bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent series, so the ladder is best read as a proportional sizing tool rather than direct evidence of apartment-level rents.","title":"The bedroom ladder is modelled from two distinct sources"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen produces $125,120 of required annual household income at current ZORI, compared with a $65,283 ZCTA median household income. ACS also estimates that 49.6% of renter households are burdened at or above the 30% gross-rent threshold. Both figures are aggregate comparisons and do not determine any applicant’s qualification or payment experience.","title":"Household affordability measures are materially below the current asking-rent screen"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a 10.7% decline in median sold price, nine homes sold, 100 median days on market, and 17.3 months of supply. Those for-sale conditions contrast with the rising Zillow asking-rent index. The 6.01% rent-price screening ratio is only a cross-source comparison and should not be used as a measure of an individual property.","title":"Resale liquidity complicates the rent-strength signal"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is a blended asking-rent measure, so it can diverge from effective rents after concessions, unit-specific utilities, lease terms, bedroom mix, and building-level availability are considered.","ACS figures describe occupied renter homes across a five-year ZCTA survey period, meaning their timing, geography, gross-rent definition, and household composition differ from the current ZIP asking-rent index.","Redfin’s resale results are based on a rolling three-month for-sale observation with only nine completed sales, so median price and marketing indicators may be sensitive to the mix of homes transacting.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics are area-level classifications, not evidence that a particular apartment is vacant, affordable, legally configured, physically comparable, or occupied by a burdened household."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow ZORI for the 10031 ZIP market in June 2026: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a lease-level rent, a measure of selected utilities, a bedroom-specific observation, or a census estimate of what occupied renter households currently pay.","q":"What does the $3,128 Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve the ladder’s relative bedroom structure but do not measure asking rents from separate studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, or four-bedroom ZIP datasets.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The measures cover different universes. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and median gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types. Timing, geography, household occupancy, utilities, and available-unit composition all differ.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent much lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The relevant property-level checks are the advertised effective rent, concessions, fees, included utilities, bedroom configuration, lease term, listing date, current availability, and comparable recent listings or leases where available. For resale context, verify the property’s own listing history, transaction record, condition, and sale-to-list outcome rather than relying on ZIP medians.","q":"What should be checked before applying these ZIP figures to a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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