At the June 2026 reading, ZIP 10035's Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, is $3,187 per month, up 7.36% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a particular currently available apartment. Annualizing the index, the arithmetic required-income screen at 30% produces $127,480 in annual income, against a $45,121 median household income in the matched ACS geography. The gap makes affordability the central data tension: the current index-level asking-rent reference is large relative to that household-income benchmark. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule.
The geography pairing needs care. The 10035 label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,326 median gross rent for occupied renter homes in that matched ZCTA; gross rent includes selected utilities. The current ZORI is 2.40 times this survey median. That gap cannot measure a unit-level increase or a current lease: ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey window, whereas ZORI captures a typical current asking-rent index across rental types. Different populations, time frames, and utility treatment keep the two evidence universes separate.
HUD supplies a third, non-comparable reference point. The local FY2026 two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,616; this is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder generates modelled monthly estimates of $2,312 for a studio, $2,682 for one bedroom, $3,187 for two bedrooms, $3,904 for three bedrooms, and $4,498 for four bedrooms. The ladder preserves local HUD bedroom proportions while using the ZIP index as its anchor. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they should not be read as observations of what individual listings request.
Survey housing composition provides a separate household context. The matched ACS ZCTA contains 17,188 housing units, including 1,533 vacant units, an 8.92% vacancy rate. Renters account for 89.04% of occupied homes, and 11,552 units are in large multifamily structures. Among renter households, 51.35% report rent burden above the thirty-percent threshold. Those are survey statements about resident households and housing stock, not proof about a new renter's costs. In particular, total vacancy does not establish that a particular apartment is available, and burden does not show the burden or eligibility of a specific household.
Broader comparisons provide scale but not ZIP substitutes. In the same wider-context sentence, the City of New York rental context is $4,133, the New York County rental context is $4,833, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro rental context is $3,573. Each names a broader scope in the packet, so each must remain context rather than a ZIP rental comp or a property-level transaction. The 10035 index sits below all three of those figures, which frames a relative level only; it does not reconcile the ACS survey median with asking rent, establish a local explanation, or explain why the figures differ.
On the direct Zillow history, 100% coverage across 138 observations makes the recorded series continuous over its available window. Exact same-month annualized change is 7.36% over one year, 4.29% over three years, and 6.37% over five years. The recent pace therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer upward path and is stronger than each longer-period annualized comparison, consistent with the accelerating history label. When monthly changes are annualized, their variability measures 2.97%, which means the current index should be treated as a dated snapshot rather than a precisely stable monthly quote. Separately, the largest recorded peak-to-trough decline was 9.94%, demonstrating that the historical path included a meaningful retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 237 for momentum, 1,566 for stability, and 377 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence challenges a simple reading of rising asking rents as uniformly strong market pressure. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $548,876 median sold price, 0.20% below its prior-year reading, with 7 homes sold and median marketing time of 249 days. Inventory was 35 homes, down 13.47%, while months of supply stood at 14.9. The for-sale signals also show an average sale-to-list ratio of 96% and a 14.3% sold-above-list share. These are ZIP resale outcomes, not rental transactions or rental comps. The seven-sale count, marketing time, and supply reading form a resale-liquidity tension with the rent history and high required-income screen. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.97%, only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
None of the sources resolves the terms or economics of a particular apartment or sale. A property-level review would need the documented asking rent, bedroom classification, unit size, lease duration, utility responsibility, fee treatment, condition, and actual availability; it would also distinguish an advertised rent from ZORI and an occupied household's gross rent from a new lease. For a resale comparison, the relevant checks are property type, physical attributes, listing status, closed-sale timing, and whether the observed sale-to-list signal matches the specific transaction. Survey vacancy and burden cannot prove a unit's availability or a household's outcome, while historical and resale readings cannot establish future movement. Does the specific property's documented price, lease terms, and availability actually align with these ZIP-level screens?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $3,187, while the 30% arithmetic screen produces $127,480 of annual income against a $45,121 ACS median household income. This is an index-to-income comparison, not a tenant test. The gap identifies an affordability tension in the data, but it does not establish the rent, income, or eligibility of a particular household or listing.","title":"Index-to-income tension"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes across a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index across rental types. HUD is an administrative bedroom ladder. Applying that ladder to ZORI creates modelled, not measured, estimates ranging from $2,312 for a studio to $4,498 for four bedrooms.","title":"Three separate rent universes"},{"body":"History has 100% coverage across 138 observations. The one-year annualized change exceeds both the three- and five-year changes, so recent direction confirms the longer upward record. Variability and the maximum drawdown reduce confidence in treating one current ZORI reading as a stable unit quote. Discovery ranks are descriptive backward-looking comparisons, not predictions.","title":"Acceleration with snapshot limits"},{"body":"The direct Redfin resale block shows a near-flat annual price change alongside 7 sales, 249 days on market, 14.9 months of supply, and a 96% average sale-to-list ratio. That for-sale evidence creates a counterweight to rent acceleration. The 6.97% annualized ZORI-to-price figure is a screening ratio only and says nothing about expenses, net return, or a specific property.","title":"Resale data provide a counterweight"}],"risks":["The comparison between current asking-rent index and ACS gross rent carries timing, population, geography, and utility-treatment differences, so the apparent gap cannot be assigned to a particular apartment or lease.","Redfin resale evidence has only seven reported sales in its rolling observation; median prices, days on market, sale-to-list ratios, and supply can be sensitive to this limited direct ZIP activity.","Vacancy and rent-burden measures describe ACS survey housing and households, not real-time listings or an individual applicant, so neither measure establishes availability, affordability, burden, or qualification for a specific unit.","The bedroom values are HUD-ladder-scaled modelled estimates, while history reports a past index path; neither source identifies actual bedroom-level asking rents, future movement, property expenses, or transaction outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched statistical ZCTA, and gross rent includes selected utilities. Different geography constructs, time windows, populations, and rent definitions mean the two values are contextually informative but cannot be substituted for one unit's current rent.","q":"Why is the current asking-rent index much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The estimates begin with ZIP ZORI, then use the relative studio-through-four-bedroom values in the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder to scale that index. The two-bedroom result equals the ZORI anchor. Because HUD is an administrative standard rather than observed asking rent, each resulting bedroom figure is modelled and should never be treated as a measured asking-rent comp.","q":"How were the bedroom rent figures created?"},{"a":"The historical record is fully covered and the one-year annualized gain exceeds both the three- and five-year annualized changes, so recent recorded direction confirms the longer upward path. Yet monthly changes are not uniform: annualized variability and the maximum drawdown show why a dated ZORI value has less precision than a stable quote for a particular apartment. The series is backward-looking only.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"Redfin's rolling-three-month record is a direct ZIP resale observation. With 7 reported sales, 249 median days on market, 14.9 months of supply, and a 96% sale-to-list ratio, it describes for-sale liquidity and pricing signals rather than rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price calculation is simply a cross-source screening ratio and cannot be called a cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block contribute to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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