The central tension in 10128 is a high and accelerating asking-rent index alongside resale evidence that looks less urgent. At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI was $4,329 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it was 7.6% above the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, the New York city context ZORI is $4,133, the New York County county-context figure is $4,833, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro-context figure is $3,573. Thus, this ZIP sits above the city and metro context but below the county context.
Backward-looking Zillow history supports the recent rent direction rather than showing a break from it. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 7.6% over one year, 5.5% over three years, and 9.5% over five years, so the latest increase exceeds the intermediate path but not the longer measured rate. The history has full coverage across 138 observations. Monthly changes translate to 3.1% annualized variability, meaning one current ZORI reading deserves less precision than a smooth trend line might imply. Separately, the worst recorded peak-to-trough drawdown was 17.7%, evidence that the prior path included a material reversal. Transparent national discovery ranks were 118 for momentum, 1,839 for stability, and 415 for the balanced measure; these are descriptive ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, not forecasts or investment signals.
Different rent datasets answer different questions, and their gap here is consequential. The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $2,647 for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not an asking-rent measure. ZIP ZORI is 63.5% higher than that survey median, a difference that can reflect the distinct populations, timing, and rent concepts rather than an error in either series. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,616, and ZORI is 65.5% higher. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it should not be substituted for a market quote or treated as a direct lease comparison.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $3,140 for a studio, $3,642 for one bedroom, $4,329 for two bedrooms, $5,303 for three bedrooms, and $6,110 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD size relationship while anchoring the overall level to the ZIP asking-rent index. They are not observed bedroom rents, do not identify a building’s actual asking schedule, and cannot show how condition, unit area, concessions, included utilities, or lease terms alter a particular listing. Their practical role is size-sensitive screening when only the aggregate ZIP index is observed.
The affordability screen points to another version of the same tension. Applying a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic test to the current ZIP ZORI produces required annual income of $173,160. That exceeds the ZCTA median household income of $147,772, and the index-to-income calculation is 35.2%; this is a mechanical comparison, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter-household survey universe, 39.1% of renter households, or 8,242 of 21,089, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden statistic includes occupied renters surveyed over multiple years and cannot establish affordability, rent burden, or utility exposure for any individual available unit.
Housing composition provides context for interpreting the survey measures without proving current availability. The ZCTA contains 36,176 housing units, and renters account for 68.9% of occupied homes. Large multifamily structures contain 27,841 units, or 77.0% of the housing stock, making the local stock profile predominantly multifamily in the ACS count. The same survey records 5,575 vacant units, a 15.4% vacancy rate. Vacancy is a broad housing-status measure, however, not a count of comparable apartments currently marketed for rent. It cannot show the bedroom mix, rent level, lease status, physical condition, or timing of turnover among vacant units, and therefore does not resolve the gap between ZORI and the gross-rent survey measure.
The direct rolling three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation complicates a simple reading of the rent growth. Median sold price was $1,267,214, up 3.5% year over year, with 99 homes sold and median marketing time of 82 days. There were 365 active listings, inventory of 205 homes, and 6.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.19%, while 11.47% of sales closed above list price. Those are for-sale-market signals only, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.1% cross-source screening ratio; it is neither a cap rate nor a net or expected return. Rent momentum confirms a strong asking-rent backdrop, but the measured resale marketing time, supply, and below-list average challenge any assumption that the for-sale market shares the same immediacy.
The evidence is strongest as a ZIP-level screen and weakest when used to price or evaluate a specific home. Zillow’s asking-rent index, ACS occupied-renter survey, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale observations use different populations, timing, and definitions. Before relying on the screen for a property-level decision, verify the live asking rent, bedroom count, square footage, lease duration, concessions, utility responsibility, and whether the listing is actually available. For resale comparisons, check the selected sales, property type, condition, list-price history, and transaction timing rather than treating the ZIP median as a subject-property value. The key unresolved question is whether a particular unit’s documented lease economics align with the modelled rent ladder and the broader affordability evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is above the city and metro context, and the latest same-month gain exceeds the three-year annualized change. The five-year growth rate remains stronger still, indicating that the recent rise extends a longer measured path. However, the historical drawdown and high-variability classification mean that one current asking-rent snapshot should not be treated as a stable property-level rent quote.","title":"Asking-rent growth is strong but historically uneven"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes in a multi-year survey and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks. The substantial separation among the three measures is decision-relevant, but it does not demonstrate that any single apartment is mispriced, affordable, or unavailable.","title":"The rent-data gap reflects different universes"},{"body":"The arithmetic income required to keep ZIP ZORI at a thirty-percent rent-to-income threshold exceeds the reported ZCTA median household income. ACS also reports a meaningful share of renter households spending at least that threshold on gross rent. These are population-level screens, not evidence about a particular tenant’s income, utilities, household composition, or lease terms.","title":"The affordability screen is tighter than the area income midpoint"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show price appreciation, yet marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list results do not present an unambiguously fast for-sale market. That tension matters because the annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio. It cannot convert ZIP rent momentum into a property return, sale outcome, or valuation conclusion.","title":"Resale liquidity tempers the rent-growth signal"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index is blended across rental types and does not disclose a specific unit’s size, condition, concession package, utility treatment, furnishing status, or current availability.","ACS estimates describe a five-year survey universe of occupied renter homes and carry sampling uncertainty; they should not be read as current advertised rents or proof of affordability for a new lease.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks, while the bedroom figures here are modelled from the ZORI-to-HUD relationship and are not measured rents for comparable available apartments.","Redfin resale statistics cover for-sale transactions over a rolling period. Median price, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rental demand, property expenses, or subject-home economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a multi-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Existing tenants, survey timing, unit mix, and utility inclusion can all create a large difference without making either measure a direct substitute for the other.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index so much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates. They scale the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder, which provides a transparent size relationship but does not observe listings by bedroom count. A specific unit may differ because of area, condition, building characteristics, concessions, included utilities, and lease structure.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents in this ZIP?"},{"a":"It is simple arithmetic: annualizing the current ZIP asking-rent index and dividing by a thirty-percent rent-to-income threshold. It is not financial advice, an underwriting result, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Household income, utilities, other obligations, tax treatment, and the actual lease rent can all differ from this broad ZIP-level screen.","q":"What does the thirty-percent required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate for-sale-market observation. Redfin’s median sold price, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals describe ZIP resale activity, not rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price produces only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, appraisal, or forecast.","q":"How should the Redfin resale evidence be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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