At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI puts typical observed asking rent in 10314 at $2,972 per month, up 5.2% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a specific available home. Annualizing that index produces a 30% required-income screen of $118,880, while the reported current asking-rent-to-income relationship is 34.1%. That screen is arithmetic only: it is not affordability advice, an applicant qualification standard, or evidence that any household can or cannot lease a particular unit.
The backward-looking ZORI record remains positive but has decelerated from its longer path. Exact same-month annualized change was 5.2% over 1 year, compared with 6.9% over 3 years and 7.6% over 5 years. Thus, the recent direction confirms continued rent growth but breaks from the prior pace by slowing. The history has full reported coverage across 64 monthly observations. Monthly ZORI returns imply 5.2% annualized variability, so a single current rent snapshot warrants less confidence than a smooth trend line would suggest. Its maximum drawdown was 3.2%, showing that declines occurred despite the overall rise. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 209 for momentum, 2,843 for stability, and 1,201 for the balanced measure; these are backward-looking discovery tools, not forecasts, quality ratings, or investment recommendations.
Rent sources answer materially different questions here. The 10314 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,802, making current ZORI 64.9% higher. ACS median gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent. HUD’s FY2026 Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent ladder is instead an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,156 for a studio, $2,501 for one bedroom, $2,972 for two bedrooms, $3,640 for three bedrooms, and $4,195 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The ACS housing profile provides an important counterweight to the asking-rent index. The matched ZCTA contains 33,738 housing units, including 20,719 single-family units and 2,230 units in large multifamily structures. Its overall vacancy rate is 7.0%, a measure of vacant housing units rather than proof that a particular rental is available or competitively priced. There were 8,490 renter-occupied homes in the survey, and 3,837 renter households, or 45.2%, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden result describes surveyed occupied renter households, not a prospective tenant’s budget and not the expense position of a specific unit.
Wider geographies put the ZIP’s asking-rent level in perspective without replacing ZIP evidence: the City of New York context rent was $4,133, the Richmond County context rent was $2,702, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context rent was $3,573. ZIP ZORI therefore sits below the named city and metro context measures but above the county context measure. Those comparisons are context only because each geography aggregates a different rental universe, housing mix, and population. They should not be treated as ZIP-level rental comps or as an explanation for the local rent trend.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin observation belongs entirely to the ZIP’s for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $718,838, down 1.8% year over year, while 169 homes sold and the median marketing time was 39 days. Inventory stood at 196 homes, 18.8% below a year earlier, alongside 3.5 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were restrained rather than uniformly aggressive: the average sale-to-list relationship was 98.2%, and 28.1% of sales closed above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing observations for the ZIP; they do not establish rental demand, tenant behavior, property operating costs, or the economics of an individual home.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price yields a 5.0% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The key tension is that asking-rent history is still rising, even as the direct resale median eased year over year and sale-to-list results remained below list on average. That tension challenges any attempt to treat either rent momentum or resale pricing as a complete market signal. It also leaves the affordability screen unresolved: a rising asking-rent index and the ACS burden measure can coexist with a softer resale price reading because the sources cover different transactions, homes, and households.
Several limits remain decisive. ZORI does not identify the rent, condition, lease terms, concessions, or utility treatment of a specific listing; ACS is a five-year survey rather than a current availability count; HUD standards are administrative benchmarks; and Redfin resale figures are not rental comps. A property-level review should verify the unit’s bedroom count, current asking amount, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, availability date, and comparable listings. For a sale candidate, confirm the actual list history, condition, closing status, and whether the relevant home resembles the rental type represented by ZORI. The unresolved question is whether those unit-specific facts align with, or materially depart from, this ZIP-level evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,972 monthly in June 2026, after a 5.2% year-over-year increase. The arithmetic income level associated with spending 30% of income on that monthly amount is $118,880. The reported asking-rent-to-income relationship is 34.1%, so the index-level screen is above that benchmark. This comparison does not evaluate a household’s actual finances or rental eligibility.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the simple income screen"},{"body":"Same-month annualized ZORI growth was 5.2% over one year, below the 6.9% three-year and 7.6% five-year rates. The direction remains upward, but recent performance is slower than the longer historical path. High variability, a 3.2% maximum drawdown, and a weak stability discovery rank reduce confidence in reading one current index value as a settled rent level.","title":"Growth is positive, but the pace has slowed"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent was $1,802, well below current ZORI, but it covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities in a five-year survey. HUD’s bedroom standards serve an administrative purpose. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures derived from the HUD ladder are modelled ZIP estimates scaled from ZORI, not observed bedroom-specific asking rents or evidence of what any available unit commands.","title":"ACS, HUD, and Zillow should not be interchanged"},{"body":"The ZIP’s direct resale median was $718,838 and declined 1.8% year over year, even as asking-rent history remained positive. Inventory was lower, yet the average sale closed below list. Annualized ZORI divided by sold price produces a 5.0% screening ratio, but it cannot represent property income, expenses, financing, appreciation, or a return measure because the rent and sale sources observe different universes.","title":"Resale data create a cross-source tension"}],"risks":["The comparison between current ZORI and ACS gross rent spans different populations, time frames, and included-cost conventions, so the gap cannot identify a rent change for a particular currently available unit.","Vacancy, renter share, and rent-burden results are ZCTA survey measures. They do not establish unit availability, landlord pricing power, tenant quality, lease concessions, or the financial stress of a named household.","Redfin’s rolling resale data describe completed for-sale activity rather than rentals. Median price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes cannot be converted into operating income or property-level economics.","The rent history is fully covered but classified as high variability, with meaningful past drawdown and weak stability ranking. Current index movement should therefore be treated as a backward-looking measurement rather than a forecast."],"qa":[{"a":"The 10314 label links Zillow’s ZIP market identifier with a Census ZCTA match, but the two are not identical geographic concepts. A ZCTA is a statistical area created for Census tabulation, while a USPS delivery ZIP is used for mail delivery. ACS values therefore describe the matched statistical area, not necessarily every address using the delivery ZIP.","q":"Why is the ZCTA distinction important for ZIP 10314?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the all-type ZIP ZORI level through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent is an administrative standard, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. Neither source supplies measured asking rents for a specific bedroom count in a particular listed unit.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed asking rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized monthly ZORI by 30% to produce an arithmetic income screen of $118,880. It is useful for consistently comparing the current index with reported income data, but it is not financial advice, a legal affordability threshold, an applicant-screening rule, or a determination that a household can afford a specific lease.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation actually mean?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate ZIP-level for-sale observation. It shows sold-price direction, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals for resale transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen; it omits expenses, taxes, financing, repairs, vacancies, unit matching, and the fact that rental and sale samples are not the same properties.","q":"How should the Redfin resale information be used with rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2031.50875},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2029.795727},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2070.575984},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2063.328012},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2122.70195},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2102.462209},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2113.494323},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2085.430573},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2107.146516},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2137.206093},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2142.818018},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2170.882608},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2184.432561},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2205.005831},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2204.123025},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2210.67054},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2188.488354},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2190.844435},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2249.667792},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2310.335497},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2353.162564},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2357.887063},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2393.762126},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2378.476032},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2362.556312},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2360.474579},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2407.320751},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2430.672767},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2451.613344},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2458.027174},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2458.889824},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2482.29507},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2474.804486},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2416.664661},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2402.417514},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2440.495134},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2584.78666},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2615.865635},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2590.619902},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2586.771004},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2609.694708},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2735.517799},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2712.027248},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2730.675125},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2710.316989},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2823.176321},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2847.695924},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2843.181288},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2785.610701},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2790.096644},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2827.945147},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2825.770066},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2836.105208},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2768.485162},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2809.378744},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2808.048002},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2855.56846},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2834.511701},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2854.630951},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2879.732391},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2889.05617},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2911.57595},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2928.323587},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2972.052214}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2825.770066,"endRent":2972.052214,"change":0.0517671801255466,"cagr":0.0517671801255466},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2430.672767,"endRent":2972.052214,"change":0.22272823160321353,"cagr":0.06932563895572885},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2063.328012,"endRent":2972.052214,"change":0.44041674261920494,"cagr":0.07571600955484548}},"maxDrawdown":-0.032178912557724204,"annualizedVolatility":0.051707975951737865,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}