ZIP 11203’s strongest current tension is an expanding asking-rent index beside softer for-sale conditions. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $2,959 per month, up 5.5% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin reports that the ZIP median sold price declined 8.8% year over year and resale supply stood at 7.9 months. These measures do not describe the same transaction market, so they cannot be combined into one price signal. The juxtaposition is still decision-relevant: asking-rent momentum remained positive while direct resale evidence showed a less tight selling environment, making a single headline of market strength incomplete.
The asking-rent history is positive but uneven rather than uniformly smooth. The one-year exact same-month annualized rent change was 5.5%, the three-year measure was 4.6%, and the five-year measure was 6.4%. Thus, the latest year confirms the longer upward direction and is faster than the three-year path, but it remains below the five-year pace. Annualized monthly-return variability is 4.8%, enough movement to reduce confidence in any one current rent snapshot. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 4.4%, showing that the historical series did experience reversals. The history has 66 monthly observations with 100% coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 315 for momentum, 2,801 for stability, and 1,316 for the balanced measure; these are backward-looking discovery labels, not forecasts or performance recommendations.
Source boundaries explain why local rent figures differ sharply. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease record for a particular dwelling. In contrast, the ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent was $1,581, a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Current asking rent is therefore 1.87 times that ACS measure without establishing an error in either source. The ZCTA median household income was $67,897, a broad household benchmark rather than an income record for current renters seeking an advertised unit.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates built by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, and they are not measured bedroom rents. That approach produces monthly estimates of $2,146 for a studio, $2,490 for one bedroom, $2,959 for two bedrooms, $3,625 for three bedrooms, and $4,176 for four bedrooms. The underlying FY2026 HUD FMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent: its two-bedroom level is $2,616 and its four-bedroom level is $3,693. The matching two-bedroom modelled estimate and ZIP ZORI does not verify that an available two-bedroom actually commands that amount; it reflects the scaling method and the broad, blended nature of ZORI.
The housing and affordability screen adds a second constraint to the rent reading. The ZCTA has 33,804 housing units, including 7,994 single-family units and 8,747 large-multifamily units. Of the occupied housing base, 17,665 homes are renter occupied, a 60.4% renter share. There were 4,566 vacant units, producing a 13.5% vacancy rate, with 979 reported vacant for rent; neither figure proves that a particular advertised home is available or suitable. ACS reports 9,445 renter households, or 53.5%, paying 30% or more of income toward rent. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to the current asking-rent index yields required annual income of $118,360, versus the ZCTA median household income benchmark, and an asking-rent-to-income screen of 52.3%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is direct for-sale evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. It recorded a $702,341 median sold price, 41 homes sold, and 64 median days on market. Inventory was 108 homes and had risen 31.1% from a year earlier, a pattern consistent with the 7.9 months of supply already noted. Sale-to-list signals were restrained: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.8%, while 22.5% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 5.1% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale evidence challenges a simple rent-history reading because price declines and expanded inventory coexist with rising asking rents, without demonstrating a causal link between them.
Wider benchmarks place the ZIP below each supplied asking-rent context, but those larger geographies cannot substitute for ZIP evidence: New York city context is $4,133, Kings County context is $3,808, and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context is $3,573. Each is a city, county, or metro value rather than a reading of 11203 listings. The lower ZIP ZORI relative to those contexts does not establish relative value, unit quality, lease terms, or tenant demand. Likewise, the ACS gross-rent gap cannot be treated as a current asking-rent discount because it reflects occupied homes, five-year survey methods, and selected utilities rather than the active asking market.
The evidence supports a bounded comparison rather than a conclusion about any building. Historical ZORI measures describe prior index movement, modelled bedroom levels are scaling outputs, ACS vacancy and burden are area-level survey estimates, HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, and Redfin is a resale-only observation. Property-level review would need to verify the legal bedroom count, the advertised asking rent, included utilities, current availability, lease duration, concessions, and the condition and timing of comparable sales. It would also need to distinguish an individual listing from area vacancy statistics and an individual sale from ZIP median resale results. The practical unresolved question is whether a specific property’s documented terms align with the relevant source universe rather than with a broad area headline.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s asking-rent history remains positive across one-, three-, and five-year horizons, with the latest annual gain above the three-year rate. Direct Redfin resale evidence points in a different direction through a lower median sold price, greater inventory, extended supply, and below-list average sale outcomes. These are concurrent but separate market observations, not evidence of a single unified pricing trend.","title":"Rent momentum and resale conditions diverge"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI measures a blended typical observed asking-rent index, while ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. The substantial gap between the two figures is therefore a source-universe distinction, not proof that either series is inaccurate. The ZCTA geography is statistical and does not exactly match USPS delivery ZIP boundaries.","title":"Current asking rent is not comparable to ACS gross rent"},{"body":"The arithmetic income threshold associated with the current asking-rent index is materially above the supplied ZCTA median household income benchmark. More than half of ACS renter households are reported as paying at least 30% of income toward rent. Those results describe area-level household conditions and do not establish whether any individual applicant, unit, or lease would meet a payment standard.","title":"Affordability pressure is visible in area-level screens"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom rent ladder scales the ZIP-wide Zillow index using local HUD FMR relationships. It offers a consistent sizing framework, but it does not measure advertised or signed rents for any bedroom type. HUD FMR itself is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent series, so both the HUD values and the resulting bedroom estimates require listing-level validation.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelling outputs, not lease comparables"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index rather than a record of a particular apartment, so an individual listing can differ because of bedroom configuration, utilities, availability, lease terms, condition, or concessions.","ACS results describe a matched ZCTA statistical area through a five-year survey of occupied homes, while the ZIP label is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP and gross rent includes selected utilities.","Redfin data are direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observations. Median sold price, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list results do not measure rental transactions, property operating costs, or the economics of a specific rental home.","Historical rent growth, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements. They do not forecast future asking rents, resale prices, lease-up conditions, or investment outcomes for a property."],"qa":[{"a":"The bedroom amounts start with the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI and scale it using the local HUD bedroom ladder. Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types, and HUD FMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. The result is a consistent modelled estimate by bedroom count, not observed rent evidence for a particular studio, one-bedroom, or larger dwelling.","q":"Why are the bedroom rent amounts described as modelled estimates?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that annualizes the current ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by 30%. It is not an affordability recommendation, underwriting conclusion, tenant qualification rule, or statement that every household needs that income. Actual lease decisions can depend on utilities, concessions, household composition, income documentation, and other terms not provided here.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"The packet measures different universes. Zillow tracks a typical observed asking-rent index, whereas Redfin tracks completed for-sale transactions in a rolling three-month ZIP observation. A positive rent index and softer resale conditions can coexist without proving causation, because the data do not identify the same homes, contracts, participants, timing conventions, or transaction purposes.","q":"Why can asking rents rise while resale prices weaken?"},{"a":"Useful checks would document the unit’s legal bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, current availability, lease duration, concessions, and any relevant unit condition differences. For a sale comparison, the review would need sale dates, property condition, listing history, and comparable-property attributes. Those checks distinguish a specific home from ZIP index values, ZCTA survey results, HUD standards, and resale medians.","q":"What property-level checks would clarify the area-level evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2104.589366},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2074.849769},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2153.002716},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2216.128759},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2223.864041},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2170.147752},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2159.390027},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2171.6939},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2196.961182},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2183.303061},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2205.146481},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2246.395609},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2301.031982},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2345.237505},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2342.543389},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2338.381683},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2385.499112},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2463.258813},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2517.897615},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2541.817109},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2573.524797},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2608.620125},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2606.843077},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2613.799437},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2632.137083},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2639.418864},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2596.792413},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2585.960537},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2580.211446},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2588.546389},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2621.514637},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2627.392304},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2620.760718},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2604.915606},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2620.184062},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2598.091839},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2602.252573},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2610.920226},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2686.745963},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2711.632754},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2715.91681},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2712.644704},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2694.529056},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2699.168013},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2650.74498},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2595.302669},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2645.512939},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2667.5043},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2766.830152},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2751.593899},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2787.284287},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2793.1246},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2820.448156},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2804.539904},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2824.672419},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2845.043068},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2910.473298},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2988.074049},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2966.516807},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2984.736506},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2920.561672},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2950.756726},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2917.385833},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2927.600465},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2927.608143},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2959.473064}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2804.539904,"endRent":2959.473064,"change":0.055243699609702324,"cagr":0.055243699609702324},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2588.546389,"endRent":2959.473064,"change":0.14329535548454864,"cagr":0.04564952957107482},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2170.147752,"endRent":2959.473064,"change":0.36371961829445065,"cagr":0.06400830460748641}},"maxDrawdown":-0.044410101427223014,"annualizedVolatility":0.0476314505698532,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}