The central tension in 11206 is between a current Zillow asking-rent index and the much lower survey picture of occupied renter homes. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI stood at $3,960, up 5.06% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease-level quote or a single-property appraisal. Against wider Zillow asking-rent context only, the New York city context was $4,133, the Kings County context was $3,808, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context was $3,573. The ZIP index therefore sat between the city figure and the county and metro figures, a context comparison rather than a measure of any address.
History clarifies why a single current read deserves qualified confidence. Exact same-month annualized changes were 5.06% over 1 year, 3.31% over 3 years, and 8.04% over 5 years. The recent positive direction thus confirms growth relative to the three-year pace but breaks from the materially faster five-year path. The series has 100% coverage through the stated endpoint, yet its annualized monthly-return variability was 3.62% and its maximum drawdown was -14.31%, consistent with the high-variability category. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 574 for momentum, 2,347 for stability, and 1,258 for balanced performance, where a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the variability and drawdown mean one current index snapshot merits less confidence as a stable reference than a smooth series would.
The gap between the asking index and the survey measure is definitional rather than an error to be reconciled. The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,625 for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and describes survey respondents, not newly advertised homes. ZORI is 2.44x that median. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $2,616, while ZORI is 1.51x that level. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The five-digit 11206 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Each measure is useful only within its own universe.
Bedroom figures offer a size-sensitive translation of the index, not separate rent observations. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,873 for a studio, $3,332 for a one-bedroom, $3,960 for a two-bedroom, $4,851 for a three-bedroom, and $5,589 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve the local HUD ratios around the ZIP asking-rent index rather than sample listings in each size. The match at the two-bedroom level is a construction feature of the scaling method. A particular available unit can depart from this ladder because the model does not establish its condition, lease terms, concessions, or included charges.
The most demanding arithmetic screen comes from applying the current index to household income. At a 30% required-income screen, the current monthly index corresponds to $158,400 in annual income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA median household income is $61,430, with a reported margin of error of $4,608; annualized asking rent is 77.4% of that median income measure. Separately, 15,480 renter households reported rent burden at or above the threshold, equal to 50.01% of renters. That burden statistic concerns surveyed occupied renter homes and cannot prove a particular unit is unaffordable, nor can it determine a household’s actual income, utilities, subsidy, or lease payment.
Survey stock counts provide another tension: a renter-heavy profile with limited aggregate vacancy, neither of which is a live inventory reading. The matched ZCTA records 35,906 housing units, including 1,093 vacant units, for a 3.04% vacancy rate; 446 were classified as vacant for rent. Renter occupancy represented 88.92% of occupied homes, and structures with large multifamily counts totaled 18,158 units. These are area-level ACS classifications rather than a census of currently marketed apartments. Aggregate vacancy does not identify an asking price, a unit’s bedroom count, or a landlord’s terms, and it cannot prove that a specific vacant or burdened home is available to a given renter.
Property-level verification is necessary before treating the index, modelled ladder, or survey comparisons as evidence about a dwelling. Check the address’s ZIP and ZCTA treatment, advertised collection date, bedroom and bathroom configuration, unit type, furnished status, lease length, move-in timing, and whether the stated monthly charge includes utilities, parking, fees, concessions, or required add-ons. Compare the active advertised payment with the actual lease offer rather than assuming the index represents it. Also check whether the property’s availability and rent restrictions match the household’s circumstances, because the HUD standard and burden data do not answer those questions. Does the specific currently offered home, under its stated terms, actually resemble the data universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, the ZIP-level asking-rent index was rising from the same month a year earlier. That near-term gain was stronger than the three-year annualized pace but below the five-year pace. Monthly-return variability and the maximum drawdown qualify the apparent strength: history is complete, but the path has not been smooth. The history measures describe prior index behavior only.","title":"Current direction is positive but uneven"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent, Zillow ZORI, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. ACS describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities; ZORI is a blended asking-rent index; HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. The large numerical spread across them should be read as a scope difference before it is read as a price difference. None is a quote for a specific dwelling.","title":"The rent gap reflects source scope"},{"body":"The required-income calculation converts the current monthly index into annual income at the stated income share. It places the ZIP-wide asking-rent level beside the ZCTA household-income and rent-burden evidence, but it does not evaluate an applicant. Household income, utilities, assistance, lease terms, and actual charges may all differ from the inputs used by the screen.","title":"The affordability screen is not an underwriting result"},{"body":"Survey stock indicates predominantly renter occupancy and a limited aggregate vacancy rate, with many units in large multifamily structures. Those classifications are informative for the area’s housing composition but are not a feed of active listings. They cannot establish a particular unit’s availability, bedroom count, physical condition, included charges, eligibility rules, or advertised payment. Property-level evidence is required for those facts.","title":"Vacancy is aggregate evidence only"}],"risks":["Comparing the Zillow index directly with ACS median gross rent can overstate a like-for-like difference, because the ACS survey covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities while ZORI reflects asking rents.","Even with complete history coverage, high variability and a prior drawdown mean a current ZORI point may move differently from a particular property’s advertised price and cannot be treated as a forecast.","The ZCTA match is statistical rather than a USPS delivery geography, so an address near a boundary or a listing labeled with a ZIP may not map cleanly to the survey area.","Aggregate vacancies, renter share, and burden counts describe area-level classifications and survey responses; they do not verify that any vacant unit is rentable, unrestricted, suitable, or offered at the published asking price."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The comparison is informative about different universes, but it is not a like-for-like rent quote comparison or evidence of an error.","q":"Why does the current Zillow figure differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They follow HUD’s relative bedroom standards rather than observed listing samples for each bedroom type. They can organize comparison across sizes, but cannot establish the payment, availability, condition, or lease terms of an actual unit.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured asking rents?"},{"a":"It annualizes the current ZIP ZORI and divides by the stated share of income, yielding an arithmetic benchmark. It is neither rental advice nor an applicant qualification test. Actual affordability depends on income, household composition, utilities, subsidies, debts, lease terms, and the property’s full required payment.","q":"What does the required-income screen show?"},{"a":"No. Aggregate vacancy is an ACS area classification, not a live listing inventory, and the ZCTA is a statistical area rather than identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. A specific address and advertised unit require direct checks of geography, status, terms, charges, restrictions, and the actual lease offer.","q":"Can vacancy and ZIP geography identify a specific available apartment?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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