Current rent and resale readings pull in different directions. Zillow's ZIP ZORI for 11209 is $2,797, a typical asking-rent index that is 6.0% above its year-earlier level, while Redfin shows a $684,845 median sold price, down 0.7% year over year. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation also reports 109 median days on market and 6.5 months of supply. This does not negate the rent increase; it separates a strengthening asking-rent index from a for-sale market with slower marketing and more resale supply. Redfin covers resale transactions, not rental transactions, so this is a cross-universe tension rather than evidence that one market caused the other.
Backward-looking Zillow history broadly confirms, rather than breaks from, the current rent direction. The exact same-month one-year change is 6.0% annualized, compared with 5.9% over three years and 6.3% over five years. Recent growth is therefore close to the longer path, although slightly below the five-year pace. The history contains 102 monthly observations and 101 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% planned coverage. Variability of 3.2% annualized indicates that monthly index changes were not perfectly smooth, limiting confidence in any one current rent snapshot. Separately, the 5.2% maximum drawdown shows that this historical path included a meaningful decline. Transparent discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 171 for momentum, 1,967 for stability, and 542 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain much of the apparent rent gap. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the matched Census ZCTA's ACS five-year survey reports a $1,864 median gross rent with a $31 margin of error for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI is 50.1% above that ACS benchmark. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; the five-digit label 11209 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. HUD's FY2026 local two-bedroom standard is $2,616, placing ZORI 6.9% above it, but HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. For wider context only, the New York city-context rent is $4,133, the Kings County county-context rent is $3,808, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro-context rent is $3,573.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a modelled size adjustment, not as a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,029 for a studio, $2,353 for one bedroom, $2,797 for two bedrooms, $3,426 for three bedrooms, and $3,948 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom estimate aligns with the all-type ZORI because it is the calibration point, not because observed two-bedroom listings were separately measured at that amount. HUD's underlying ladder supplies an administrative relative bedroom pattern rather than rental comparables, availability evidence, or a prediction of what any specific property will ask.
The income screen is demanding relative to the local median, but it remains arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule. At 30% of income, the current asking-rent index implies required annual income of $111,880. The ZCTA median household income is $93,854, and the corresponding asking-rent-to-income screen is 35.8%. ACS counts 19,413 renter-occupied households, of which 8,602, or 44.3%, report paying 30% or more of income toward rent. This burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households under ACS definitions, including the distinction between gross rent and asking rent. It does not establish the costs, income, lease terms, or burden of a particular applicant or unit.
Housing composition and vacancy provide a separate inventory lens. The ZCTA has 33,090 housing units and an 8.1% overall vacancy rate, including 537 units categorized as vacant for rent. Renters occupy 63.8% of occupied units, while 16,187 units are in large multifamily buildings. These aggregates indicate a renter-majority occupancy base and a substantial multifamily component, but they do not prove that a particular vacant unit is rentable, appropriately priced, or currently advertised. The 8.1% local overall vacancy rate is below the 9.4% New York city-context rate and the 8.3% Kings County county-context rate. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metro context reports 5.2% apartment vacancy, which is a different apartment-specific measure and should not be treated as directly interchangeable with ZCTA overall vacancy.
Redfin's resale liquidity signals challenge a simple reading of the rent history. In the direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale data, 77 homes sold and inventory stood at 166 homes. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.2%, while 12.0% of sales closed above list price, both indicating resale outcomes below an across-the-board competitive bidding picture. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's median sold price produces a 4.9% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield because it excludes property-specific rents, expenses, financing, vacancies, taxes, maintenance, and transaction differences. The slower resale signals and declining sold price therefore temper, rather than erase, the sustained asking-rent and affordability-screen pressure.
Several limits remain material. ZORI is an index rather than a listing-level quote, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes rather than current advertised supply, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a resale observation rather than rental evidence. Useful property-level checks include confirming the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, and utility treatment; verifying whether a unit categorized or advertised as available is truly available; and comparing a specific sale record's list price, sale price, and marketing dates with the rolling ZIP statistics. Readers should also reconcile source timing and geography before applying any ZIP aggregate to a property. The key unresolved question is whether a particular unit's current terms resemble the modelled and aggregate measures rather than merely sharing the same ZIP label.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is higher than a year earlier, and the one-year, three-year, and five-year annualized history measures are closely clustered. That supports continuity in the historical direction. However, monthly-return variability and a past maximum drawdown mean the current reading should be treated as an index snapshot, not a smooth or guaranteed path.","title":"Rent growth is sustained but not perfectly stable"},{"body":"The ZIP ZORI sits materially above the matched ZCTA ACS median gross rent and modestly above the local HUD two-bedroom standard. Those are not competing estimates of the same thing: ACS describes occupied renter homes and selected utilities, while HUD provides an administrative standard. The difference should not be interpreted as a direct rent premium for a specific available apartment.","title":"Asking rent exceeds both ACS gross rent and the HUD two-bedroom standard"},{"body":"The arithmetic income required to keep the asking-rent index at 30% of income exceeds the ZCTA median household income. ACS also reports that a substantial share of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent. These measures identify aggregate affordability pressure, but cannot determine qualification, household expenses, or affordability for an individual renter.","title":"Income and burden measures show aggregate pressure"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation shows a lower median sold price year over year, extended marketing time, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes below list on average. Those for-sale signals complicate any simple translation of rent-index growth into resale strength. The annualized rent-to-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio and excludes property economics.","title":"Resale conditions do not mirror rent momentum"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the actual asking price, concessions, condition, bedroom count, lease duration, or included utilities of a particular available property.","ACS median gross rent and rent-burden results are five-year survey measures for occupied renter homes, with gross rent including selected utilities; they are not current listing rents or proof of a specific household's financial position.","Redfin resale statistics describe direct ZIP for-sale transactions over a rolling three-month window, not rental transactions. The rent-to-price screening ratio excludes expenses and must not be interpreted as property-level return economics.","Overall vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts are aggregate classifications rather than a live availability feed. They cannot establish that any specific unit is rentable, vacant today, priced near the index, or suitable for a given household."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A gap can therefore reflect timing, tenancy, utility treatment, and the difference between asking and occupied-home rent measures.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, listing counts, availability estimates, or rental comparables. The HUD ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent survey.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"It converts the ZIP asking-rent index into the annual household income needed for rent to equal 30% of income. This is arithmetic only, not advice, underwriting, or an applicant qualification rule. It can be compared with the ZCTA median income and ACS burden share, but it cannot determine an individual household's affordability.","q":"What does the 30% income calculation show?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's median sold price, combining a rental asking-rent index with a resale statistic. It is useful only as a broad cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or substitute for property-specific rent, expense, financing, and condition analysis.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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