At the stated June 2026 endpoint, 11211 presents a cross-market split: Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $4,960 per month, 5.78% above the same month a year earlier, whereas Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation has a $1,399,684 median sold price, 9.08% below its year-earlier level. The measures do not describe matched properties or transactions. The meaningful tension is simply that the typical observed asking-rent index rose while the ZIP’s resale median fell. Annualized ZORI divided by that median sold price is 4.25%, a cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Redfin reports for-sale activity, while ZORI tracks asking rents, so neither series converts the other into property economics.
The rent history supports a longer upward path but not a one-way monthly experience. History coverage is 100% through the stated endpoint. Exact same-month changes annualized to 5.78% over one year, 4.82% across three years, and 8.37% across five years. Thus the latest direction confirms the longer positive path, but its pace is below the five-year measure. The annualized monthly-return variability reading of 3.03% calls for caution when treating one current rent snapshot as precise. A separate worst peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.63% documents a meaningful earlier retreat despite the positive multi-year changes. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs—where a lower rank is higher—were 264 for momentum, 1,670 for stability, and 459 for the balanced measure. These direct Zillow ZIP ZORI measurements are backward-looking, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 11211 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matching Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It differs by universe from the $2,471 ACS median gross rent: the ACS 2024 five-year survey represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; the current asking index is 2.01 times that median. HUD’s FY2026 local FMR/SAFMR ladder is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZORI by that ladder produces modelled, not measured, monthly ZIP estimates of $3,598 for a studio, $4,173 for one bedroom, $4,960 for two, $6,076 for three, and $7,001 for four. Those are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The high current asking benchmark creates a different arithmetic screen from the ACS description of households. Dividing annualized ZORI by the ZCTA’s $107,506 median household income gives 55.4%. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current monthly index corresponds to $198,400 of annual income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS survey, 9,425 of 23,292 renter households, or 40.5%, reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. Those survey burdens are not evidence that any particular available unit has that burden, and their five-year household universe is not the ZORI asking-rent universe.
ACS stock measures add scale but not proof of availability. The matched ZCTA has 29,447 housing units and 1,308 vacant units, producing a 4.4% vacancy rate. Renter occupancy exceeds owner occupancy in this survey universe, and the housing stock includes large multifamily units. Vacancy is an aggregate condition, not evidence that a particular unit is available or can be leased. Nor does the aggregate show a unit’s condition, bedroom count, lease terms, or utility treatment.
Wider geographies show how elevated the ZIP asking index is, but they cannot substitute for ZIP evidence. In the same June Zillow asking-rent context, New York City scope is $4,133, Kings County scope is $3,808, and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro scope is $3,573; each is a contextual benchmark rather than a direct ZIP observation. City, county, and metro renter shares, vacancies, household incomes, and ACS gross-rent measures also belong to their stated wider scopes. The ZIP premium across these rent contexts is descriptive, not evidence about any building, lease, or household.
Resale liquidity provides a qualified challenge to the rent/history screen. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, 44 homes sold; median marketing time was 49 days. There were 77 homes in inventory and 5.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.51%, while 18.62% of sales were above list and 10.39% went off market within two weeks. Alongside the declining median sale price already noted, those direct resale indicators show transactions and pricing signals did not uniformly mirror ZORI’s recent rise. They remain resale facts, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence of a future rent or sale-price path.
These aggregated series have deliberate limits. ZORI supplies no unit-specific bedroom mix, condition, concessions, or utility detail; ACS does not provide a current listing tape; the HUD ladder is a standard; and Redfin does not identify rental economics. Relevant property-level checks are the advertised bedroom count against the modelled ladder, the asking rent and lease timing, included utilities, and whether any sale record refers to the same property type. Listing status and transaction dates also need verification before an advertised unit is linked to a resale observation. The evidence supports comparison and screening, not forecasts, recommendations, or conclusions about an individual unit’s availability, burden, or economics. Which unit-level facts remain after those checks rather than an aggregate comparison alone?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI rose 5.78% year over year while Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price fell 9.08%. This is not a causal relationship: ZORI is an asking-rent index and Redfin is a for-sale transaction observation. The 4.25% annual-rent-to-price calculation is merely a cross-source screening ratio, with no claim about expenses, financing, returns, or any particular property.","title":"Rent strength and resale-price split"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI represents typical observed asking rents across blended rental types; ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes with selected utilities; HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. The listed studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not observed bedroom rents or direct HUD asking-rent measurements.","title":"Source boundaries matter"},{"body":"At the 30% arithmetic screen, the current asking-rent index maps to $198,400 in annual income, far above the ZCTA’s ACS median household income. Separately, 40.5% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. The first calculation is not advice or a qualification rule; the second is a survey aggregate and cannot establish the burden attached to any available unit.","title":"Household screen is not unit affordability"},{"body":"The positive same-month history, the 12.63% maximum drawdown, and the 3.03% annualized variability convey different aspects of past ZORI behavior. Redfin’s resale median price decline moves in the opposite direction from the current rent gain. That is a cross-market tension, not evidence about future rents, prices, demand, or economics for a particular property.","title":"History supports context, not prediction"}],"risks":["The current asking index, ACS gross-rent median, and HUD bedroom ladder describe different populations, time frames, and constructions; interpreting their gaps as a unit-level price difference would overstate comparability.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so address-level inclusion, household characteristics, and vacancy conditions cannot be established from these ZIP and ZCTA aggregates.","A full historical record still contains a material drawdown and measures past ZORI movements only; it cannot establish future rent direction, lease renewal outcomes, or realized performance for any property.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation may not represent a rental building or advertised unit, and resale price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list signals provide no direct rent comparables."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different universes. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. The difference is descriptive, not a direct spread between comparable units or a measure of a specific listing.","q":"Why is the asking-rent index much higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures begin with ZIP ZORI and apply proportions from the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates designed to preserve that local bedroom ladder, rather than measured advertised rents, signed leases, or direct rental transactions for studios or any other bedroom count.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured market rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen divides annualized current ZORI by a stated income level and calculates the income associated with allocating 30% to rent. It does not observe an applicant’s actual income, expenses, household composition, credit terms, utility bills, or eligibility. It is arithmetic for comparison, not affordability advice or a qualification rule.","q":"Does the 30% screen say an applicant can afford a unit?"},{"a":"Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale evidence: completed sales, median sold price, marketing time, inventory, supply, and list-price outcomes. It therefore tests whether the resale market moved in parallel with the asking-rent history; here, it did not uniformly do so. It does not provide rental transactions, rental comps, property expenses, or a future-price signal.","q":"What does the resale data add to the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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