The central tension in 11214 is that the current Zillow asking-rent reading is modestly softer even though its longer rent history remains positive. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, was $2,462 at the stated endpoint, down 0.2% from a year earlier. For wider context, the New York city rent figure was $4,133, the Kings County rent figure was $3,808, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro rent figure was $3,573; these are broader-area context measures, not ZIP-level substitutes or unit-level comps.
Recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer backward-looking path. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI change was negative 0.2% over one year, while the annualized change was positive 3.4% over three years and positive 5.3% over five years. Those measurements describe past asking-rent index movement and are not forecasts or investment recommendations. The high-variability designation is supported by 3.7% annualized monthly-return variability, meaning month-to-month index changes were not especially smooth, and by a 4.4% maximum drawdown, showing the largest historical decline from a prior peak. Full 100% history coverage supports measurement completeness, but the national discovery ranks—1,755 for momentum, 2,437 for stability, and 2,422 for the balanced measure—place more weight on caution when interpreting a single current rent snapshot.
Bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP Zillow index through the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,786 for a studio, $2,072 for one bedroom, $2,462 for two bedrooms, $3,016 for three bedrooms, and $3,475 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,616. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and not asking rent, while the modelled ladder is simply a way to translate the ZIP-wide Zillow index across unit sizes. It cannot establish what any available apartment is asking, whether utilities are included, or whether a specific floorplan is represented in the index.
The income screen makes the difference between asking-rent data and household survey data especially important. A 30% required-income screen applied to the $2,462 monthly asking-rent index implies $98,480 in annual household income, versus matched-ZCTA median household income of $65,895. That arithmetic produces an asking-rent-to-income reading of 44.8%; it is not advice and does not determine whether an applicant qualifies for a lease. ACS median gross rent was $1,771, about 39.0% below the Zillow asking-rent index. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, so it is neither a current asking-rent series nor a direct replacement for Zillow ZORI. Among 20,173 renter-occupied homes, 10,557 households, or 52.3%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent; that burden statistic does not prove the affordability of any particular available unit.
Housing composition provides additional context for how broadly the survey measures apply. The matched ZCTA contained 33,043 housing units, with 20,173 renter-occupied households, making renters 65.4% of occupied homes. Its overall vacancy rate was 6.6%, and vacancy classifications include units identified for rent, for sale, and seasonal use rather than a direct count of currently lease-ready apartments. The stock includes both single-family and large-multifamily structure categories, which reinforces why a ZIP-wide blended asking-rent index should not be treated as a single-property benchmark. Neither the vacancy measure nor the renter burden measure can show the condition, availability, concession structure, or tenant profile of a particular home.
The direct ZIP resale evidence presents a separate, more visibly softened for-sale signal. In Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $779,824, down 21.9% year over year; 58 homes sold and median marketing time was 93 days. Active listings numbered 249, reported inventory was 154 homes, and months of supply was 8.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 95.9%, a signal that completed sales were generally below list in this for-sale observation. Annualized Zillow ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 3.79% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The price decline, lengthy marketing time, and supply reading challenge any simple strength narrative based on the positive three- and five-year rent history, particularly because current asking rent itself was slightly lower year over year.
These datasets answer different questions and should remain separate. Zillow ZORI tracks a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The ACS ZCTA figures describe occupied homes captured in a five-year survey, including median gross rent and rent-burden conditions. HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder, not market asking rents. New York city, Kings County, and metro figures are wider context only. Redfin is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation of resale transactions and listing-market conditions, not rental transactions or rental comps. The comparison is useful for identifying the tension between muted current rent movement and weaker resale conditions, but it does not link a renter household, a listing, and a sale into one observed transaction chain.
The practical limits are material. The Zillow figure is an index rather than a lease quote; ACS survey medians can lag current listings; HUD standards are not prices; and resale medians can combine different home types. A property-level review can verify the current asking price, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease term, concession language, listing availability, and whether any sale comparison is genuinely similar in structure and condition. It can also distinguish a unit’s actual days marketed from the ZIP resale marketing statistic and confirm whether costs absent from the packet materially change a household budget. The 30% screen remains arithmetic only. The next decision-critical question is whether a specific available unit’s all-in terms resemble the modelled rent ladder more closely than the ZIP-wide index.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index was $2,462 and slipped 0.2% over one year. That contrasts with positive annualized same-month growth over both the three-year and five-year windows. The evidence is backward-looking, not predictive. High monthly variability and a meaningful historical drawdown make it less appropriate to treat the latest index reading as a stable, self-explanatory rent level.","title":"Current rent softness interrupts a positive longer record"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA’s ACS median gross rent was materially below the Zillow index, but the measures have different universes. ACS covers occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow measures current typical observed asking rent. The required-income calculation is therefore a screening arithmetic exercise, while the rent-burden share describes surveyed households rather than any specific listing.","title":"Survey affordability measures sit below the asking-rent index"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed a lower median sold price, extended marketing time, substantial listed supply, and completed sales below list on average. Those are for-sale-market signals, not rental outcomes. They challenge a simple interpretation that historical rent growth alone indicates broad current market strength, especially because the latest asking-rent index was slightly negative year over year.","title":"Resale conditions complicate the longer rent-growth signal"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates were created by scaling ZIP Zillow ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. This provides a consistent unit-size framework, but it does not measure actual advertised rents by bedroom count. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, and a specific property may differ on utilities, condition, lease structure, timing, and included features.","title":"Bedroom rents are a modelled ladder, not market observations"}],"risks":["A ZIP-wide asking-rent index can conceal meaningful differences among buildings, unit sizes, lease terms, utilities, concessions, and available inventory, so it cannot confirm the price or availability of a particular apartment.","The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS five-year occupied-home results may not align with current asking rents or the households seeking housing today.","High historical rent variability and the recorded drawdown reduce confidence in using one current Zillow index observation as a durable benchmark, particularly after the recent one-year decline.","The Redfin rent-price screen combines an asking-rent index with a resale median from a different market universe; it excludes operating costs, financing, property condition, and transaction-specific attributes."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types at the ZIP level. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They have different timing, populations, and definitions, so the gap does not establish an error or a direct rent increase for any individual unit.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent figure higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a standardized comparison across bedroom counts, but they are not measured listing medians, executed lease rents, or evidence of a specific unit’s asking price.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP asking rent by 30% to show the household income mathematically associated with that spending threshold. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual household budgets can differ because utilities, debt, household size, savings, and other expenses are not provided in the packet.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP figures describe the for-sale resale market, including sold prices, listing supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes. They are not rental transactions. The resale evidence creates a tension with the longer rent-history record, but it cannot establish causation or prove current conditions for a rental property.","q":"Does the Redfin resale data show that rental conditions are weakening?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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