The current Zillow ZORI for this market is $2,599, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for a particular available unit. Its level is below the $4,133 New York city context, the $3,808 Kings County context, and the $3,573 New York-Newark-Jersey City metro context; each comparator is a wider-geography context, not a substitute ZIP measure. That lower asking-rent reading is the first decision tension: it is comparatively modest against those broad benchmarks, yet it still has to be assessed against this ZIP's income and renter-burden evidence rather than treated as automatically affordable.
Backward-looking Zillow history shows continued rent growth, but the recent pace is slower than the longer path. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.25% over one year, 4.68% over three years, and 6.16% over five years. Thus, the latest direction confirms that the asking-rent index remained positive, while breaking from the stronger longer-run rate of increase. Monthly rent-index movements produced 5.52% annualized variability, which reduces the confidence warranted by any single current snapshot. The largest observed peak-to-trough drawdown was 6.77%, showing that the historical path included a meaningful retreat despite its positive longer-run changes. Coverage was 100%, based on 74 observations and 73 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 476 for momentum, 2,868 for stability, and 1,542 for the balanced measure; lower ranks indicate stronger placement. These are measurements of prior observations, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit 11223 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA identifier. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,647 for occupied renter homes; that measure includes selected utilities and is not an asking-rent measure. The current asking index is therefore 57.8% above the ACS median, a difference that can reflect the separate populations, timing, and utility treatment of the sources rather than a direct rent change. A 30% required-income screen converts the asking index to $103,960 of annual income, versus median household income of $63,368; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 49.2%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 56.8% of surveyed renter households were rent-burdened at 30% or more, compared with 52.4% in the New York city context and 50.8% in the Kings County context. Burden statistics describe surveyed households, not whether any particular unit will be affordable.
The bedroom ladder should be read as modelled monthly ZIP estimates, never as measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,885 for a studio, $2,187 for one bedroom, $2,599 for two bedrooms, $3,184 for three bedrooms, and $3,668 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $2,616. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is 99.4% of that standard, signaling close alignment in the scaling framework, not proof that available two-bedroom listings transact or ask at that level. Lease terms, utility inclusion, condition, and unit type remain outside this ladder.
Housing composition supplies another guardrail for interpreting rent and vacancy. The ZCTA survey estimates 28,803 housing units, including 16,930 renter-occupied homes, a 63.9% renter share. It also records 6,455 single-family units and 9,719 units in large multifamily structures, indicating that the housing stock spans materially different building forms that should not be collapsed into one listing comparison. There were 2,325 vacant units, an 8.1% vacancy rate, with 369 recorded as vacant for rent. Those figures provide area-level availability context only. They do not establish the vacancy, condition, concession level, or attainable rent of a specific property or apartment.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation introduces a counterweight to the positive rent history. Median sold price was $1,133,744, down 2.18% year over year, while 35 homes sold and median marketing time was 47 days. Inventory stood at 102 homes and months of supply was 8.9. Average sale-to-list was 96.76%, and 20.61% of sales closed above list price. These are for-sale market measures, not rental transactions or rental comparables. In that same cross-source screen, annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 2.75%; it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property economics. Falling resale price alongside positive asking-rent history, plus substantial supply and below-list average outcomes, challenges any simple conclusion drawn from rent growth or the affordability screen alone.
Evidence universes should remain separated throughout the interpretation. Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent across rental types; ACS describes occupied renter homes over a multi-year survey period and includes selected utilities; HUD establishes administrative bedroom standards; and the city, county, and metro figures are context only. The direct Redfin observation instead concerns ZIP resale activity. Consequently, the difference between the asking index and ACS gross rent cannot be treated as a lease-level premium, and the resale ratio cannot be converted into a property-level result. The history's slower recent increase, its variability, and its drawdown argue for more caution in relying on one current rent reading than the positive long-run changes alone would suggest.
Property-level review should keep the supplied evidence as a screen rather than a substitute for unit facts. A complete record would identify the advertised and effective rent, concessions, bedroom classification, lease duration, included utilities, availability date, occupancy status, and the building form relevant to the listing. Any resale review should separately verify sale date, property type, listing history, condition, and transaction terms rather than infer them from the ZIP median. Expenses and unit-specific obligations also need separate documentation because the rent-to-price screen contains none of them. The central unresolved question is whether the particular unit's lease structure and physical characteristics support the broad ZIP signals without assuming that area averages apply directly to it.
","findings":[{"body":"Same-month Zillow history remains positive across the measured horizons, but the latest annual pace is below both the three-year and five-year annualized changes. That deceleration matters because it breaks from the stronger longer path even though rents did not reverse. Historical variability and the observed drawdown make a single current ZORI reading less definitive than a smooth trend would imply.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has cooled"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index is below the named city, county, and metro context readings, but its required-income screen materially exceeds the ZCTA median household income. The renter-burden share also exceeds the city and county context shares. These facts describe area-level arithmetic and surveyed household conditions, not a qualification standard or the affordability of a particular apartment.","title":"Asking rent and household affordability point in different directions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. Their close two-bedroom relationship to the HUD standard is useful for internal calibration, but HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than observed asking rent. The estimates therefore cannot establish the rent, availability, condition, or utility treatment of any specific bedroom type.","title":"Bedroom figures are a HUD-scaled model, not lease evidence"},{"body":"The ZIP's direct Redfin resale observation shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price, lengthy marketing time, substantial months of supply, and an average sale below list, even as Zillow rent history is positive. This does not create a causal link between markets, but it does argue against treating rent momentum as a complete description of current local housing conditions.","title":"Resale data challenge a one-direction rent narrative"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent indexing, ACS gross-rent surveying, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale reporting describe different populations, dates, and concepts. Combining them without preserving those boundaries can create misleading conclusions about a specific lease or property.","The historical rent series had meaningful monthly variability and a measurable drawdown despite positive longer-run growth. A current asking-rent snapshot may therefore be less representative of near-term listing conditions than its point estimate suggests.","Redfin resale measures aggregate a rolling ZIP-level set of home sales rather than rental transactions. Median price, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes cannot establish lease demand, apartment vacancy, or the economics of an individual rental property.","ACS burden and vacancy figures are ZCTA-level survey estimates for households and housing units. They cannot prove that a particular listing is vacant, affordable, concessioned, utility-inclusive, or representative of the area-wide housing stock."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures have different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, occupied versus asking units, rental mix, and utility treatment prevent a direct lease-level comparison.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent index higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"It annualizes the current monthly Zillow asking-rent index and divides it by a 30% income share. The result is an arithmetic benchmark for comparing the index with reported household income. It is not financial advice, an underwriting decision, a tenant-screening policy, or evidence that a particular applicant can or cannot qualify.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. The model cannot verify unit condition, lease term, utility inclusion, concessions, or actual advertised rent.","q":"Are the bedroom rents observed ZIP listings?"},{"a":"It is only annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin ZIP median sold price, so it is a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include operating expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, property condition, vacancy for a specific unit, or transaction costs. It should not be used as a substitute for property-level records.","q":"How should the resale rent-to-price screen be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1939.438221},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1934.131047},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1868.148826},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1881.029834},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1867.840708},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1864.428939},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1808.188631},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1849.08548},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1863.203463},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1964.387979},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1934.873714},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1951.339707},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1914.412559},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1927.773907},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1920.064059},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1953.597969},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1980.199257},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1990.881124},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2022.205563},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1997.834545},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2005.292777},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1982.910331},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2029.439396},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1992.872216},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2017.963054},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2031.777449},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2132.362277},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2143.963338},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2175.489685},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2210.679855},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2253.066859},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2246.879029},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2229.344974},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2218.104579},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2256.617423},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2280.442273},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2287.309745},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2266.120398},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2282.062053},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2273.231129},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2275.151095},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2289.540898},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2305.470723},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2364.557183},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2386.107257},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2401.434354},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2349.479474},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2375.019109},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2451.237597},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2542.360747},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2538.771756},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2503.727109},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2490.751681},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2474.609585},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2505.334646},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2522.806207},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2516.07049},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2473.171118},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2449.145241},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2468.329406},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2495.877767},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2493.150739},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2492.908367},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2547.402164},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2575.467108},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2598.413139},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2580.315549},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2561.973966},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2581.584108},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2630.957787},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2685.399424},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2670.169178},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2622.571483},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2599.055556}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":74,"firstPeriod":"2020-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":74,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2493.150739,"endRent":2599.055556,"change":0.04247830479856107,"cagr":0.04247830479856107},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2266.120398,"endRent":2599.055556,"change":0.14691856544508264,"cagr":0.04675295184165296},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1927.773907,"endRent":2599.055556,"change":0.34821596379248,"cagr":0.06157795929109611}},"maxDrawdown":-0.06767402466283567,"annualizedVolatility":0.05517345717971761,"consecutiveReturnCount":73}}