At $3,428 in the reported current month, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is the central asking-rent signal, but it sits against a sharp affordability tension. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for one available home. Its level is far above the matched Census ZCTA median gross rent of $1,730; that survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The 11225 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Those geographic and product distinctions matter before treating either benchmark as a unit-specific rent.
The ACS 2024 five-year survey describes occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent of $1,730 includes selected utilities. It therefore is not a current asking-rent series and should not be substituted for ZORI. FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards rather than asking rent. The supplied local HUD ladder sets the relative bedroom scaling: it converts the ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates of $2,487 for a studio, $2,884 for one bedroom, $3,428 for two bedrooms, $4,199 for three bedrooms, and $4,838 for four bedrooms. Each bedroom figure is a modelled estimate, never a measured bedroom rent or a listing quote.
The history is decisive on direction but not predictive. Exact same-month ZORI change was 6.82% over 1 year, 4.27% annualized over 3 years, and 6.84% annualized over 5 years at the stated endpoint of June 1, 2026. The recent pace nearly matches the long-run pace and is above the intermediate pace, so it confirms rather than breaks from the longer measured rise. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Coverage is 100%. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher, momentum ranked 260, stability 1,755, and the balanced measure 506. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 3.08%, but maximum drawdown was a 10.18% decline. The limited variability supports more confidence in the current snapshot than a highly erratic series would, while the drawdown still warns that a single observation is temporally sensitive.
The affordability screen brings the present index into tension with household-level ACS measures. Applying the 30% rule mechanically to $3,428 per month produces required annual income of $137,120. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA median household income is $88,568; annualized ZORI represents 46.45% of that amount. Separately, 44.82% of occupied renter households reported rent burdens of 30% or more in the ACS survey. The income statistic covers households generally, while the burden statistic covers renter households. Neither population measure proves the cost, income, burden, or eligibility of an individual household or a particular unit.
ACS stock metrics indicate a renter-dominant aggregate housing base rather than a direct listing inventory. Renter households account for 80.30% of occupied units in the matched ZCTA, and the all-unit vacancy rate is 6.95%. The structure count includes 16,266 units in large multifamily buildings alongside single-family units, describing stock composition rather than rent quality or lease availability. The packet separately reports vacancies for rent, sale, and seasonal use. Consequently, neither the overall vacancy rate nor the renter share establishes whether a particular building has an available unit, what it asks, or what its utilities and lease terms contain.
Wider geographies frame the ZIP but cannot replace it. In the New York city context, the asking-rent benchmark is $4,133; in Kings County context, the asking-rent benchmark is $3,808; and in the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context, the asking-rent benchmark is $3,573. All three context measures exceed the ZIP’s current index, with the city gap visibly widest. Each is a wider-area context series, not a ZIP listing set or a claim about a specific building. Their wider geographic and survey scopes make them comparison frames rather than interchangeable local rents.
Resale market evidence presents a different tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a median sold price of $1,129,745, up 25.86% year over year. It recorded 27 homes sold, a median 78 days on market, inventory of 58 homes, and 6.6 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 97.46%, while 30.8% of sales closed above list; these are for-sale execution signals, never rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price is 3.64%, solely a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale price change is much faster than the latest rent change, yet the marketing time, supply, and below-list average do not depict uniformly rapid resale execution. That contrast challenges any simple reading from rent momentum or the household-income screen alone.
These benchmarks have deliberately different units, time windows, and target populations. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year occupied-renter survey with selected utilities, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin covers resales. None establishes a unit’s contract rent or property economics. Property-level review would need the actual asking rent, bedroom count and layout, listing date, availability status, lease length, included utilities, and any concessions; a resale review would need the specific property’s sale history, comparable transaction details, and listing status. Those checks test whether a unit resembles the broad benchmarks without converting them into forecasts, recommendations, or proof of availability. The unresolved question is whether the terms and configuration of a specific available unit align with these separate evidence universes.
","findings":[{"body":"At $3,428, ZORI gives the current asking-rent signal, while the $1,730 ACS median gross rent is a backward-looking, utility-inclusive survey result for occupied renter homes. These figures should not be reconciled as if they were competing quotes. The ZCTA is a statistical match rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so both the measure and its geography need to be retained.","title":"Rent benchmark mismatch requires source discipline"},{"body":"The exact same-month record shows 6.82% annual growth over one year, 4.27% over three years, and 6.84% over five years. That recent pace supports an accelerating historical classification because it exceeds the intermediate rate and nearly matches the longer rate. Full coverage strengthens continuity, although the observed 10.18% drawdown means the history is not a smooth straight line.","title":"Acceleration is visible, but the path was not smooth"},{"body":"HUD produces the relative bedroom ladder, not market rent observations. Applying its FY2026 standards to the ZIP’s blended ZORI creates modelled estimates from $2,487 for a studio to $4,838 for four bedrooms. The $137,120 income result is only the arithmetic income associated with paying the index at 30% of income; it neither determines affordability for a household nor qualifies an applicant.","title":"Bedroom sizing and affordability are separate calculations"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale series shows a large year-over-year sale-price increase, but resale execution was not uniformly rapid: typical marketing time was 78 days, supply was 6.6 months, and the average sale-to-list outcome was below list. Those facts belong solely to for-sale transactions. They offer a cross-source tension with rent momentum, not rental comparables, tenant demand evidence, or property-level economics.","title":"Resale price momentum does not imply uniformly rapid execution"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin are intentionally noninterchangeable evidence universes with different timing, populations, and definitions; using a gap between them as a rent comp, appraisal, or unit operating result would overstate precision.","The ZCTA is a statistical geography and ACS reports a five-year estimate of occupied homes, not live delivery ZIP inventory; its survey totals, vacancy, and burden shares cannot identify a particular address or tenant.","The bedroom series is mechanically modelled from the HUD ladder and blended ZORI. It can differ from a unit’s actual rent because bedroom count, layout, utilities, concessions, lease duration, and listing conditions are not measured.","The three-month Redfin snapshot includes only 27 resale closings. Its sale price, days on market, inventory, and sale-to-list signals can be informative about resale liquidity but cannot establish rental transaction terms, net economics, or future outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures have different observation rules. Current ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a 2024 five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Moreover, the matched ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. The numerical gap is therefore cross-universe context rather than a direct contradiction.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index so far above ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, and ZORI is blended across rental types; neither directly observes a defined bedroom listing here. A unit’s advertised rent can also differ with actual layout, included utilities, lease length, concessions, and listing timing.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual measured asking rents?"},{"a":"The 1-, 3-, and 5-year same-month changes are backward-looking measurements through June 1, 2026. The current pace confirms the longer observed direction, while 100% coverage makes the sequence complete. Still, 3.08% annualized monthly-return variability and a 10.18% maximum drawdown show that the level has moved over time; they support bounded, not absolute, confidence in one current snapshot.","q":"What does the historical pattern say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price and is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes property-specific information required for any net calculation and combines asking-rent and resale universes. Redfin’s rolling three-month data describes for-sale liquidity, including price, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes; it is not rental transaction evidence.","q":"What does the 3.64% cross-source screen represent?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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