The sharpest measured tension in 11229 is a fast asking-rent rise alongside softer resale signals. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index is $2,750 per month, up 12.7% from the same month a year earlier. Meanwhile, Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation reports a $703,341 median sold price, down 11.0% year over year. Those figures describe different market universes, but the contrast matters: the rent snapshot has strengthened while sale prices, marketing conditions, and pricing signals point to a less forceful for-sale setting. Neither series establishes causation, and neither is a forecast.
The backward-looking rent record shows acceleration rather than a break from its longer path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change is 12.7%, above the three-year annualized change of 10.3% and the five-year annualized change of 9.7%. Thus, recent direction confirms the established upward history and has recently moved faster. Monthly-return variability annualized to 6.1%, however, so a single current rent reading warrants less confidence than a smooth trend line would suggest. The deepest historical retreat was 6.0%, showing that the path has included meaningful reversals despite its positive longer-run result. The supplied history has full monthly coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks are 25 for momentum and 2,885 for stability, where lower ranks are higher; these are descriptive discovery measures, not investment ratings or recommendations.
The five-digit label 11229 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a survey median or a bedroom-specific quote. Wider comparisons are context only: New York city context has a $4,133 asking-rent index, Kings County context has a $3,808 asking-rent index, and New York-Newark-Jersey City metro context has a $3,573 asking-rent index. Those city, county, and metro figures frame the ZIP’s lower index level, but they are not substitutes for ZIP-level evidence.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a modelled translation of the ZIP index. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,995 for a studio, $2,314 for one bedroom, $2,750 for two bedrooms, $3,369 for three bedrooms, and $3,881 for four bedrooms. These are not measured bedroom rents or listing comparables. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,616, making the modelled two-bedroom estimate 105.1% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so its role here is to establish the scaling relationship rather than to validate any particular unit’s market price.
The income screen emphasizes why the current asking index and occupied-renter survey results should not be treated as interchangeable. Median household income in the matched ACS area is $70,603, while supporting a $2,750 monthly asking-rent index at the 30% screen arithmetically requires $110,000 of annual income. That produces an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 46.7%; it is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS median gross rent is $1,651, making the asking index 66.6% higher. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reflects observed asking rents. Within ACS renter households, 49.9% met the stated burden threshold, a population statistic that does not prove affordability or burden for a particular available unit.
Housing-stock evidence provides another constraint on broad rental conclusions. The matched ACS area contains 33,284 housing units, of which 30,523 are occupied and 2,761 are vacant, an 8.3% vacancy rate. Renters account for 53.1% of occupied homes, and 596 vacant units are classified as for rent. Large multifamily structures account for 14,949 units. These are survey-based stock and vacancy categories, not a live listing feed, leasing pace, or proof that a specific vacant unit is available, competitively priced, or comparable with the ZORI basket.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions. In that for-sale universe, 76 homes sold, with 300 active listings and an inventory count of 197. Marketing time was 106 days and months of supply stood at 7.8, consistent with the resale-price decline noted above rather than with an especially tight resale reading. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.2%, while 8.1% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 4.69% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a property-level measure of economics. The resale evidence therefore challenges any simple reading of rapid rent history as uniformly reinforced by the for-sale market, while the rent-income screen independently shows that asking-rent arithmetic is demanding relative to the area median income.
The evidence cannot identify the rent, expenses, utility treatment, condition, lease terms, or actual availability of a specific home. A property-level review would need to verify the advertised asking amount, bedroom count, unit type, concessions, included utilities, vacancy status, and listing history before comparing a unit with the modelled ladder. For a sale listing, the comparable-sales set, marketing history, physical configuration, and current list terms would also need separate review. The central unresolved question is whether any particular available unit resembles the broad ZORI mix and HUD-scaled bedroom model closely enough for those ZIP-level screens to be informative.
","findings":[{"body":"Same-month rent history shows the latest annual gain exceeding the annualized three-year and five-year measures, so recent direction extends rather than reverses the longer increase. High historical variability and a material maximum drawdown mean the current asking-rent index should be treated as a useful benchmark, not a precision quote for every available home.","title":"Rent momentum is strong, but the path is not smooth"},{"body":"The current asking-rent index implies a substantially higher income screen than the matched ACS median household income. ACS gross rent is lower because it summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The burden share describes surveyed renter households, not the financial position of an applicant or the affordability of a specific listing.","title":"The affordability comparison depends on the source universe"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are derived by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, and the resulting bedroom values are modelled estimates. They should not be read as measured rents, achieved lease prices, or evidence that a particular unit should command the displayed amount.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed rental comps"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show lower sold prices year over year, lengthy marketing time, substantial supply, and average sale-to-list performance below list. Those for-sale indicators do not measure rentals, yet they challenge a simplistic interpretation that rapid asking-rent growth is matched by equally strong resale-market conditions.","title":"Resale conditions complicate the rent signal"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index is blended across rental types and cannot establish the achievable rent, lease-up pace, concessions, utility treatment, or tenant demand for a particular apartment.","ACS estimates describe a matched ZCTA statistical area over five years, not a USPS delivery ZIP or current listings, and their occupied-home results may differ materially from new asking rents.","Redfin resale observations concern for-sale transactions rather than rental transactions. A sold-price change, inventory measure, or sale-to-list signal should not be converted into property-level rental economics.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is modelled from an administrative standard and the ZIP asking index. Differences in unit condition, layout, utilities, and lease terms can make it unsuitable for a specific home."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a measure of current asking rent.","q":"Why do the Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by the stated income-share threshold. It is arithmetic for comparing area-level rent and income figures, not lending guidance, leasing advice, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule.","q":"Does the income screen determine whether someone qualifies for a rental?"},{"a":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year measures show whether recent direction aligns with the longer record, while variability and maximum drawdown show how uneven the path has been. Here, recent growth extends the longer trend, but elevated variability means a single current index reading deserves cautious interpretation.","q":"How should the historical rent measures affect confidence in the current index?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price, creating a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy, unit quality, or actual lease terms. Redfin’s data remain evidence about resale activity, not rental transactions.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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