At $3,215 in June 2026, the ZIP 11233 asking-rent signal is twice the matched survey rent benchmark: ACS median gross rent is $1,606, a 2.00x gap. That divergence is the central measured tension, because the ZCTA median household income is $62,411 while a simple 30% screen on the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $128,600. Annualized asking rent also equals 61.8% of that median income. This required-income calculation is arithmetic only, not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it does not establish what any household or unit can sustain.
The Zillow rent history supports a positive but uneven backward-looking path. Exact same-month change was 5.6% over one-year, 4.6% over three-year, and 7.7% over five-year intervals. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path and is faster than the three-year pace, although it remains below the five-year rate. The index showed 2.8% annualized monthly-return variability, which permits more confidence in the continuity of one current rent snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Still, the historical maximum drawdown was 8.9%, so the path was not linear. Coverage is 100% across 138 monthly observations; these are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place 11233 at 292 for momentum, 1,300 for stability, and 310 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. Those positions align with an above-average growth-oriented history rather than an especially calm one. For wider asking-rent context only, New York city context is $4,133, Kings County context is $3,808, and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context is $3,573. The ZIP index is below all three broader-geography figures, but context values do not substitute for ZIP-level evidence or establish a comparable unit type.
Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while the ACS 2024 five-year figure is a survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The geographic match is a Census ZCTA, which is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Using the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale the ZIP ZORI produces modelled estimates of $2,332 for a studio, $2,705 for one bedroom, $3,215 for two bedrooms, $3,938 for three bedrooms, and $4,538 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The matched ZCTA contains 81,822 people and 34,612 housing units, of which 32,948 are occupied. Renters occupy 25,133 homes, a 76.3% renter share, while the overall vacancy rate is 4.8%. Of the reported vacant homes, 420 are vacant for rent. These aggregates describe the area’s housing stock and vacancy conditions, not availability at a particular address. Among renter households with burden information, 12,677 report paying at least the burden threshold, equal to 50.4%. That survey burden measure reflects occupied renter households and should not be used as proof that a specific current asking-rent listing will carry the same burden.
The affordability signals differ by universe but point to a meaningful gap between today’s asking-rent index and the incomes and occupied-home rents recorded in the ZCTA survey. The ZIP’s 50.4% burden share is modestly below the New York city and Kings County context burden measures, yet the current ZIP rent-to-income screen remains above the metro context measure. In the same sentence, the relevant scope matters: New York city and Kings County are broader local contexts, while the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro is a still wider context. None of those comparisons converts median income, gross rent, or burden into a forecast of leasing conditions.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs strictly to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $1,287,209, down 5.0% year over year, with 37 homes sold and a 79-day median marketing time. Redfin reported inventory of 101 homes and 8.3 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.4%, while 11.1% of sales closed above list and 8.0% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sold-price median is a 3.0% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale evidence challenges any simple reading of rent growth as uniformly strong market momentum: rent history rose while this direct resale snapshot showed lower sold prices, extended supply, and below-list average pricing.
Several limits remain material. ZORI is not a unit-level asking-rent comp; ACS does not describe vacant listings; HUD standards are not observed rents; and Redfin resale records do not identify rental economics. Concrete property-level checks would need to establish the actual bedroom count, condition, rent and concession terms, utility responsibility, lease duration, listing availability, and whether genuinely comparable recent rental listings support the index-derived estimate. For a resale comparison, relevant checks include property type, condition, sale timing, listing history, and the closeness of sold homes to the subject. The decisive unanswered question is whether a specific unit’s lease and physical attributes match any of these aggregate signals.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index is $3,215, compared with $1,606 median gross rent in the matched ACS ZCTA. The 2.00x difference is not a contradiction: Zillow measures typical observed asking rent across rental types, whereas ACS surveys occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The gap limits direct affordability comparisons.","title":"Asking rent materially exceeds the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow history recorded 5.6% one-year, 4.6% three-year, and 7.7% five-year annualized change. That pattern confirms a longer positive path, with recent growth above the three-year pace. Full coverage supports continuity, while 2.8% variability and an 8.9% maximum drawdown show that historical rent movement was not uniformly smooth.","title":"History is positive, but the current snapshot is not risk-free"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use ZIP ZORI scaled by the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. They provide internally consistent modelled estimates across bedroom counts, but are not measured rents for available units. Their usefulness depends on whether a particular home’s condition, utilities, layout, lease terms, and listing status resemble the assumptions embedded in the broad ZIP index.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaling outputs, not observed ZIP rents"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower year-over-year median sold price, 8.3 months of supply, 79 median days on market, and an average sale-to-list result below list price. Those for-sale signals do not describe rental transactions, but they challenge a simplistic interpretation that historical asking-rent growth alone captures all current market conditions.","title":"Resale conditions create a counterpoint to rent-history strength"}],"risks":["The large spread between Zillow asking rent and ACS median gross rent may reflect different time windows, occupancy status, rental mix, and included utilities rather than a directly comparable change in the cost of one unit.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the ZIP index and HUD ladder assumptions, so they can differ materially from actual asking rents for units with unusual condition, utilities, layouts, concessions, or lease structures.","The reported vacancy and renter-burden statistics are area-level survey measures. They cannot verify current availability, tenant turnover, payment burden, or leasing performance for a particular property or listing.","Redfin resale evidence is limited to a rolling three-month for-sale observation. Its sold-price and liquidity signals cannot be treated as rental comps, property operating results, or evidence of future rent performance."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The ACS geography is a ZCTA statistical area, not an identical USPS delivery ZIP, further limiting one-to-one comparison.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent so much lower than the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The figures should therefore be read as proportional estimates rather than measured asking rents for available studio, one-bedroom, or larger homes.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom rent figures actual observed bedroom rents?"},{"a":"The screening ratio divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price. It is a cross-source comparison tool that places current asking-rent scale beside resale price scale. It excludes financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy, operating costs, property condition, and rent collection, so it is not a cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio show?"},{"a":"The complete monthly history and relatively limited annualized variability support some confidence that the current Zillow index is part of a persistent measured series rather than an isolated observation. However, the recorded maximum drawdown shows rents did retreat during the historical period. The history is backward-looking and cannot determine future asking rents, vacancy, or individual lease outcomes.","q":"How should the rent-history figures affect confidence in the current rent snapshot?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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