Resale evidence creates the clearest counterpoint to the rent screen. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $1,399,684 median sold price, up 33.3% year over year, while only 6 homes sold and median marketing time was 57 days. It also recorded 54 active listings, an inventory count of 34, and 16.9 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 96.6%, with 16.7% of sales above list. Those are resale-market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The 3.24% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The combination of a higher sale-price median and deep supply presents a different signal from a single rent snapshot.
ZIP Zillow ZORI was $3,779 in the stated month, 4.8% above its year-earlier level. ZORI is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is neither a lease-level average nor a bedroom-specific measurement. In the City of New York context, the asking-rent index was $4,133; in Kings County context, it was $3,808; and in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro context, it was $3,573. Thus, the ZIP index sat below the named city and county context measures but above the metro context measure. Those wider geographies provide scale only and do not replace ZIP-level evidence.
The backward-looking rent path shows continued growth but a slower long-run pace than the most rapid earlier period. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 4.8% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 8.0% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms an upward path relative to the three-year rate, while breaking from the faster five-year trajectory. Monthly rent changes produced 3.5% annualized variability, meaning one current reading deserves less confidence as a stable reference than a smooth series would warrant. The observed historical maximum drawdown was 14.9%, a separate indication that prior rent levels have experienced meaningful retrenchment. The record has full coverage with 138 observations and 137 consecutive returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 551 for momentum, 2,242 for stability, and 1,126 for balance; lower ranks are higher. These are measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder is a modelling exercise rather than a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the provided local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,741 for a studio, $3,180 for one bedroom, $3,779 for two bedrooms, $4,629 for three bedrooms, and $5,334 for four bedrooms. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,616, placing the ZIP ZORI 44.5% higher; HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. In contrast, ACS median gross rent is $2,219, making current ZORI 70.3% higher. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZIP label is both a Zillow market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
At a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen, a $3,779 monthly asking-rent index implies $151,160 in required annual income. The ACS median household income was $85,196, and the annualized asking-rent-to-income comparison equals 53.2%. That contrast does not identify the income of a renter seeking any particular home, nor does it incorporate household size, co-tenancy, concessions, utilities, or lease terms. ACS also estimates that 55.6% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households rather than a current listing or applicant. The required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule.
Housing-stock evidence comes from the matched ACS ZCTA rather than Zillow or Redfin. The area had 19,195 housing units and a 5.0% vacancy rate, while renter occupancy represented 87.8% of occupied homes. The stock includes both single-family and large-multifamily categories, which reinforces that a blended ZIP rent index may span materially different unit forms. ACS classified 522 vacant units as for rent, but that category cannot establish that a particular unit is currently available, rentable at the index level, or comparable in condition. General vacancy also cannot be treated as proof of concession pressure or vacancy at an individual property.
The cross-source tension is most useful when kept intact rather than forced into one conclusion. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index is above its ACS gross-rent benchmark and its local HUD two-bedroom standard, while the income screen and renter-burden measure indicate that aggregate affordability pressures remain material. At the same time, the direct resale data show a high sold-price median, few completed sales, extended supply, and average sales below list. Neither universe explains the other: resale statistics do not measure rental demand, and asking-rent history does not establish resale liquidity. City, county, and metro figures are wider context only; they cannot resolve property-specific pricing, tenant costs, or transaction terms within this ZIP.
Important limits remain before applying these aggregates to a specific address. A property-level file would need the advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, recurring fees, lease duration, availability timing, and the unit’s condition and size to test whether it resembles the ZORI-based modelled ladder. A resale review would separately need sale records, list-history details, property type, condition, and closing timing to assess relevance to the Redfin ZIP observation. ACS survey estimates have stated margins of error, and the ZCTA boundary does not perfectly match USPS delivery geography. The decisive question is which evidence applies to the actual unit and transaction under review, rather than whether one aggregate series can stand in for all of them.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI rose 4.8% over the latest exact same-month year, above the 3.6% three-year annualized pace but below the 8.0% five-year pace. That pattern supports continued upward direction while showing that recent growth does not match the faster longer-run path. Historical variability and drawdown data reduce confidence in treating one current index reading as permanently representative.","title":"Recent rent growth remains positive, but the longer path was faster"},{"body":"Applying the mechanical 30% income screen to the current $3,779 ZORI produces a required annual income of $151,160, compared with ACS median household income of $85,196. The resulting 53.2% asking-rent-to-income comparison is not a tenant-level affordability finding. It is an aggregate screen that must remain separate from surveyed renter burden and actual lease terms.","title":"The affordability comparison is materially tighter than the ACS income benchmark"},{"body":"Redfin recorded a sharply higher median sold price year over year, yet the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation also contained only 6 sales, 57 median days on market, and 16.9 months of supply. Those indicators describe for-sale conditions rather than rents. They complicate any attempt to infer property economics from the rent index or from the annualized rent-to-price screen.","title":"Resale pricing and resale liquidity point in different directions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the provided HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative standards, while ACS gross rent is a five-year occupied-renter survey that includes selected utilities. Neither source is interchangeable with Zillow asking-rent observations, and neither establishes the rent of a specific available apartment.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed unit rents"}],"risks":["The ZCTA is a Census statistical geography rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, so ACS population, income, vacancy, and gross-rent estimates may not map perfectly onto the Zillow ZIP market identifier.","ZORI blends asking rents across rental types, and the bedroom ladder scales that index with HUD standards. The modelled figures can diverge from an actual unit because of size, condition, utilities, fees, and concessions.","The historical series is complete but classified as high variability, with an observed drawdown as well as positive longer-term growth. Past rent movement is backward-looking and does not establish a future asking-rent path.","The Redfin observation has a small completed-sale count and concerns for-sale properties only. Its price, supply, and sale-to-list signals cannot be converted into rental demand, vacancy, net income, or property-level return."],"qa":[{"a":"The $3,779 figure is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking current asking-rent direction, but it is not a signed-lease average, a measure of utilities-inclusive gross rent, or an observed rent for a specified bedroom count.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"The two values come from different evidence universes. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reflects asking rents. Different timing, occupied-versus-advertised status, rental mix, and utility treatment mean the gap cannot be treated as a direct measure of overpricing.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent much lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"They should be read only as modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit rents. A specific listing can differ because its physical characteristics, utilities, fees, condition, and lease terms may not resemble the aggregate model.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price from the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. The result is a cross-source screening ratio only. It does not include expenses, financing, vacancy, taxes, repairs, concessions, or property-specific income, so it is not a cap rate, yield, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-to-price screen mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":2569.108752},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":2549.222572},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":2595.668059},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":2565.913332},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":2616.143838},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":2604.106955},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":2661.365217},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":2657.809373},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":2669.742985},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":2670.692667},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":2664.782262},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":2665.828656},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":2686.932557},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":2693.401163},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":2704.888707},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":2716.001551},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2699.444305},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2673.043767},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2650.376801},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2662.072305},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2685.637934},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2721.438402},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2745.803697},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2757.23717},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2741.84404},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2753.359735},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2723.293736},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2705.066716},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2677.131703},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2686.657682},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2682.288016},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2685.0606},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2671.348034},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2667.528869},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2659.830547},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2690.79402},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2677.516003},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2667.427371},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2631.525917},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2657.113675},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2687.808273},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2706.448224},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2693.04263},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2669.064152},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2649.542229},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2643.488173},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2646.606053},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2616.826005},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2628.209995},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2665.116939},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2710.986479},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2707.790442},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2710.079372},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2708.885641},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2737.955935},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2769.591918},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2805.650791},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2827.516424},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2849.112257},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2883.386414},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2913.978411},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2919.713892},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2855.635867},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2839.539867},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2813.564259},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2765.957829},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2709.22749},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2639.850068},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2589.829983},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2537.870268},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2527.81104},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2518.852395},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2512.756752},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2499.657695},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2483.986949},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2513.831719},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2529.666692},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2573.944411},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2616.792202},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2679.38821},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2736.11187},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2799.780571},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2852.16685},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2912.886945},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":3000.216522},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":3074.782307},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":3137.887016},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":3137.567191},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":3193.130795},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":3239.569438},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":3298.727072},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":3346.563012},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":3381.766399},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":3413.09022},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":3399.476281},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":3376.760445},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":3342.615087},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":3336.04291},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":3355.230129},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":3379.902562},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":3383.798355},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":3395.909442},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":3394.211206},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":3403.254496},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":3397.952206},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3416.91868},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3442.535566},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3489.196025},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3487.720877},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3486.797871},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3458.71971},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3470.771163},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3483.724377},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3486.013884},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3504.096374},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3500.956366},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3508.513677},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3487.602142},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3493.114217},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3496.096557},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3533.052554},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3554.788434},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3570.429132},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3584.830692},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3593.064777},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3605.197131},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3609.36464},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3625.995858},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3644.293534},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3673.312833},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3688.123688},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3695.894654},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":3701.949173},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3714.377694},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":3739.918167},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":3747.603436},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":3762.524858},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":3778.797899}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3605.197131,"endRent":3778.797899,"change":0.04815291971339364,"cagr":0.04815291971339364},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3395.909442,"endRent":3778.797899,"change":0.11274990206290658,"cagr":0.03625312896096178},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2573.944411,"endRent":3778.797899,"change":0.4680961573416047,"cagr":0.07981883971854753}},"maxDrawdown":-0.14923617830976166,"annualizedVolatility":0.03502209845374137,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}