ZIP 11373 presents a sharp current-rent versus household-income tension. Zillow’s Observed Rent Index was $2,723 in the reported June observation, after a 10.6% year-over-year increase. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote or a measure of every available unit. For wider context, the New York city context rent was $4,133, the Queens County context rent was $3,256, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro context rent was $3,573. Those city, county, and metro figures establish broader scope comparisons only; none replaces the direct ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent signal.
The backward-looking rent path supports the recent upward direction, but it also argues against treating one current reading as unusually precise. Exact same-month annualized change was 10.6% over one year, compared with 6.3% over three years and 7.0% over five years. Recent movement therefore confirms the longer positive path while running faster than both longer lookbacks. History coverage was 100%. The dispersion of monthly returns annualizes to 3.8%, and the worst peak-to-trough decline was 4.7%, indicating that the series has not moved in a straight line. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 48 for momentum and 2,514 for stability, where lower ranks are stronger. The high-variability classification means current ZORI is a useful snapshot, but historical movement warrants more confidence in the broad direction than in any single month’s level.
Affordability evidence comes from a different universe. The ACS five-year survey covers occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities; its median gross rent for the matched ZCTA was $1,937. Zillow’s current asking-rent index is therefore 40.6% above that survey median, a gap consistent with differences in timing, occupied versus asking units, rental mix, and included costs rather than a direct contradiction. Applying the arithmetic 30% screen to the $2,723 asking-rent index produces required annual income of $108,920, versus local median household income of $71,480; that screen equals 45.7% of median income. It is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. ACS also estimated that 13,717 renter households, or 57.4% of renter households, spent at least 30% of income on rent; that statistic cannot establish burden for a particular household or unit.
The bedroom view is a modelling device, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,975 for a studio, $2,291 for one bedroom, $2,723 for two bedrooms, $3,335 for three bedrooms, and $3,843 for four bedrooms. HUD’s two-bedroom administrative standard was $2,616, placing the ZIP-wide ZORI level 4.1% above that reference. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not an asking-rent series, while ZORI is blended across rental types. The ladder is consequently useful for keeping bedroom estimates proportionate to the local HUD schedule, but it does not observe actual asking rents for any specific size, building, or lease term.
The matched Census geography describes a renter-heavy housing base but does not prove current availability. The five-digit label 11373 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS counted 34,996 housing units, including 2,419 vacant units, for an overall vacancy rate of 6.9%. Renter-occupied homes represented 73.3% of occupied units, and structures with large multifamily configurations accounted for 16,557 units. Of all vacant units, 475 were classified as vacant for rent. That classification is not evidence that a given unit is marketed, rentable at the ZORI level, suitable for a particular household, or free of lease, condition, or eligibility constraints.
Wider geography puts the ZIP’s mix and affordability tension into context without converting broader measures into ZIP facts. The New York city scope, Queens County scope, and New York-Newark-Jersey City metro scope all showed higher context rents than the direct 11373 Zillow index. The ZIP’s ACS renter share exceeded the city and county context renter shares, while its overall vacancy rate was below both of those wider-context rates. Its ACS rent-burden share was also above the city and county context shares. These comparisons describe differently sized populations and housing stocks. They support the observation that 11373’s current asking-rent-to-income screen is demanding, but they cannot identify a cause, determine a building’s tenant profile, or substitute for direct ZIP rental listings.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation introduces a separate for-sale-market tension. Median sold price was $559,873, up 10.3% year over year, broadly confirming the positive direction visible in current and historical asking-rent data. Yet resale liquidity signals were not uniformly tight: 48 homes sold, median marketing time was 74 days, inventory stood at 154 homes after a 6.0% year-over-year increase, and months of supply reached 9.6. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.7%, while 10.7% of sales closed above list. Those are resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price was 5.8%, a cross-source screening ratio only; it does not describe property-level economics, expenses, financing, or a return. Rising resale prices confirm direction, while supply and sale-to-list signals challenge any simplistic interpretation of uniformly rapid market clearing.
The evidence is best read as a dated ZIP-level screen with material measurement limits. ZORI should be checked against current unit-level asking rents, bedroom count, lease length, concessions, included utilities, furnishing, condition, and availability date. A prospective comparison should also verify whether a property is in the matched statistical geography rather than relying solely on a mailing address. For resale work, inspect the actual sales set, property types, listing histories, and whether a reported transaction is comparable to the building under review. ACS burden and vacancy statistics describe aggregates, and the HUD ladder supplies standards, not unit quotes. None of the series forecasts rents or prices. The central factual question is whether current unit-specific terms resemble the broad ZIP asking-rent signal while remaining meaningfully different from the occupied-home ACS record.
","findings":[{"body":"The direct ZIP Zillow asking-rent index reached $2,723 after a 10.6% annual increase. That rate exceeded the three-year and five-year same-month annualized changes, so recent movement accelerated rather than reversing the longer positive path. However, the history is classified as high variability, making a single current reading less definitive than the multi-year direction.","title":"Current rent is rising faster than the longer trend"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The asking index exceeded the ACS median gross rent materially, but the gap should not be read as a direct like-for-like premium for a particular apartment. Timing, occupied status, unit mix, and utility treatment differ.","title":"Asking rent and survey rent answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data showed a higher median sold price year over year, consistent with the upward direction in asking rents. At the same time, months of supply, marketing time, inventory growth, below-list average sale pricing, and a modest above-list share describe a more mixed resale-liquidity picture. These figures concern for-sale transactions only, not rental demand or lease outcomes.","title":"Resale price strength is paired with slower-clearing signals"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are derived by scaling ZIP-wide ZORI using the supplied HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They are useful for a consistent size progression, but they are not measured bedroom asking rents. HUD standards are administrative references rather than market listings, so actual quoted rents can differ because of unit features, lease structure, building condition, utilities, and availability.","title":"The bedroom ladder is explicitly modelled"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and is not a signed-lease database. A current unit may differ materially because of bedroom count, concessions, lease duration, furnishing, utilities, condition, or listing status.","ACS results are a five-year survey of occupied homes in a matched statistical area, not a contemporaneous inventory of listings. Median gross rent and rent burden therefore should not be applied directly to a newly marketed unit.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation measures for-sale resale activity. Median sold price, inventory, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list measures cannot be used as rental transaction evidence or as direct property economics.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate classifications. They do not establish that a particular apartment is vacant, affordable to a specific household, available for lease, or representative of current asking-rent conditions."],"qa":[{"a":"The two measures have different populations and construction. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. The difference is informative, but it is not a direct comparison of identical apartments or lease terms.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent figure exceed the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. They maintain a consistent local bedroom progression, but they do not measure actual asking rents by bedroom count and should be checked against current unit-specific listings.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic screen that divides annualized ZIP asking rent by 30% of gross income. It helps show the income associated with that simplified threshold, but it is not financial advice, an affordability determination, a lending standard, or an applicant qualification rule for any landlord or household.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s resale observation. Because the numerator is an asking-rent index and the denominator is a resale statistic, the ratio is a cross-source screen only. It excludes expenses, financing, vacancies, property condition, taxes, and unit-level comparability.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1918.230437},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1919.394829},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1942.64647},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1951.893751},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1960.120988},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2000.17648},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1988.010575},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2036.522527},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2006.366432},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2024.641986},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2061.516859},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2108.303854},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2145.554391},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2144.145737},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2172.128543},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2201.074175},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2201.03298},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2185.70112},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2205.666996},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2213.735187},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2263.884741},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2292.234145},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2281.035174},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2267.546146},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2232.137092},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2268.340966},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2269.87039},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2285.656319},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2308.490518},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2304.786275},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2350.224475},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2347.268137},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2357.942564},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2353.041502},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2362.361261},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2386.089048},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2426.949142},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2443.799419},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2477.273083},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2477.198811},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2479.628877},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2506.648311},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2434.974212},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2446.434423},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2388.68724},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2420.133446},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2441.984906},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2478.630073},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2464.836084},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2437.009814},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2462.531196},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2476.370628},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2491.214196},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2503.67174},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2559.835819},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2579.277626},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2640.305652},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2641.987355},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2653.460648},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2646.810555},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2679.204499},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2722.866809},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2723.416667}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":63,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2462.531196,"endRent":2723.416667,"change":0.10594199635877422,"cagr":0.10594199635877422},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2269.87039,"endRent":2723.416667,"change":0.19981153064867274,"cagr":0.0626029333333793},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1942.64647,"endRent":2723.416667,"change":0.40191059415972896,"cagr":0.06990215810874312}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04705928250179636,"annualizedVolatility":0.03847231460610591,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}