At $3,085 in June 2026, the 11374 Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, is the central current asking-rent signal, up 7.74% from the prior year. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is neither a lease quote for every home nor a measured bedroom series. The key tension is that the index implies $123,400 in annual household income under a 30% screen, while the ACS five-year median household income is $90,631. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
History places the current increase in a fully observed, backward-looking path rather than an outlook. Exact same-month ZORI changes through the stated endpoint were 7.74% over one year, 5.70% annualized over three years, and 6.98% annualized over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer upward path, and its one-year pace exceeds both multi-year measures, matching the supplied accelerating classification. Stated coverage is 100%. Monthly index movements translate to 2.83% annualized variability; even a complete series leaves reasonable uncertainty around what one current snapshot represents. The maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 4.70%, showing prior declines within the observed path. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 90 and stability at 1,302. These ranks and returns are backward-looking measurements, never forecasts or investment recommendations.
A matched Census geography supplies an older, different lens. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent in the 11374 ZCTA is $1,958 with a published $67 margin of error. It surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike ZORI's observed asking-rent index. The current ZORI is 57.6% above that survey median; the spread is a source-universe difference, not evidence that any particular home's rent changed by that amount. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,616. It is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Neither HUD FMR/SAFMR nor ACS gross rent substitutes for a ZIP asking-rent observation.
The bedroom ladder is intentionally a model, not a rental survey. Applying the local HUD ladder's ratios to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,238 for a studio, $2,596 for one bedroom, $3,085 for two bedrooms, $3,779 for three bedrooms, and $4,354 for four bedrooms. These estimates retain a common ZORI anchor and HUD-derived bedroom spacing. They are never measured bedroom rents, and the HUD values that shape them remain administrative standards rather than property advertisements. The ladder can organize a consistent size-based comparison, but actual unit rent, floor area, advertised bedroom designation, and lease terms are not observed in this dataset.
Stock data adds a separate survey-based view of occupancy and burden. The ACS ZCTA records 21,152 housing units, with large multifamily structures outnumbering single-family units. Of all stock, 1,527 units are vacant, a 7.2% vacancy rate. Renter households represent 58.2% of occupied homes. The ACS burden measure places 50.4% of renter households at or above its standard threshold. This is evidence about aggregate occupied-renter survey responses and housing stock, not proof that any specific unit is vacant, attainable, available for rent, or burdened. It should therefore not be translated into a particular household outcome.
Broader geographies position the ZIP below their current rent measures, but only as context. For wider context, the New York City city-context asking-rent index is $4,133, the Queens County county-context asking-rent index is $3,256, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro-context asking-rent index is $3,573. The ZIP index is lower than each of these broader-scope figures. This does not alter the ZCTA survey or HUD interpretations: city, county, and metro values describe their named scopes, not a substitute rent observation for 11374 or a statement about a comparable unit.
The resale record produces the report's clearest counterweight to the accelerating rent path. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price is $447,398, up 4.53% year over year; 68 homes sold, and median marketing time is 80 days. Inventory is 189 homes with 8.5 months of supply. Average sale-to-list is 96.42%, while 7.58% of sales closed above list. Those are direct ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The price increase is directionally consistent with the longer rent history, but the supply and sale-to-list readings challenge a simple translation from an accelerating asking-rent and income screen into uniformly tight resale liquidity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is an 8.27% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several limits keep the analysis from becoming a property conclusion. ZORI, the ACS ZCTA survey, the HUD standard, and the Redfin resale series have different observation designs and reporting periods; the published ACS uncertainty further limits point-to-point precision. Property-level review should verify the current advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, availability status, and lease charges before comparing any listing with the index or modelled ladder. When examining a sale, check the closed price, list price, marketing history, and basic unit characteristics against the direct ZIP resale record. These aggregate figures cannot establish a unit's vacancy, a renter's burden, a household's qualification, a property's costs, or a future rent or resale result. Which missing lease and transaction details would materially change the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 direct ZIP ZORI is $3,085 and its 7.74% annual change is the current rent signal. The stated 30% arithmetic screen converts that monthly index to $123,400 of annual income, compared with a $90,631 ACS five-year median household income. It identifies aggregate pressure in the screen, not an applicant rule, household budget, or lease quote.","title":"Asking-rent pressure exceeds the ZIP income screen"},{"body":"Same-month growth is faster in the most recent year: 7.74% versus 5.70% annualized over three years and 6.98% over five years. With 100% history coverage, the acceleration reading is supported by the supplied record. Monthly-return variability is 2.83% annualized. The separate 4.70% maximum drawdown cautions against treating the current level as a frictionless straight line or a forecast.","title":"Recent rent growth is faster than the multi-year path"},{"body":"The $1,958 ACS median gross rent and $2,616 HUD two-bedroom standard answer different questions from ZORI. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities; HUD is an administrative standard. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures from $2,238 to $4,354 are modelled by the HUD ladder and ZIP ZORI. They must not be relabeled as measured bedroom rents.","title":"Survey, HUD, and bedroom figures answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale record reports a $447,398 median sold price, 68 homes sold, 8.5 months of supply, and a 96.42% average sale-to-list ratio. This data confirms a price increase but gives a resale liquidity context distinct from rent. The 8.27% annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen and excludes the inputs required for property economics.","title":"Resale evidence complicates the rent acceleration reading"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, so it cannot verify a particular unit's advertised price, available date, bedroom count, utility treatment, concessions, or lease charges.","ACS uses a matched ZCTA, which is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year occupied-renter estimates may not mirror current listings or individual households.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, while the displayed bedroom values are modelled from its ladder. Treating either series as observed market rent would create false unit-level precision.","Redfin observes ZIP resale activity, not rental transactions. Its rent-to-price screen omits expenses, financing, taxes, operating costs, and property matching, so it cannot state a cap rate or property return."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index for the ZIP, blended across rental types, at the stated current period. It is a market-level index rather than a unit quote. The 11374 label also matches a Census ZCTA for this packet, but that statistical geography does not equal a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What does the current ZORI figure represent?"},{"a":"The ACS value is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index. The difference is therefore a contrast in time frame, surveyed population, and rent definition. It does not show that a particular apartment's rent has risen by the observed gap.","q":"Why is the ACS rent figure lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD's values are administrative standards, not listing observations. The model gives consistent relative spacing across bedroom categories, but it cannot determine an actual unit's rent, bedroom classification, included utilities, lease charges, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed asking rents?"},{"a":"Redfin's rolling ZIP resale observation describes homes sold and listings in the for-sale market, not rentals. A rising median sale price is directionally consistent with the rent history, while supply, marketing, and sale-to-list readings add a distinct liquidity signal. Dividing annualized ZORI by price is only a cross-source screen; it is not a cap rate, return, or valuation conclusion.","q":"How should the resale screen be read alongside rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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